2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Lambeau Field

Pittsburgh Steelers

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -6.5 ✓U 45 ✓Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Green Bay Packers 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 10:11, GB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:11PIT — GB PIT ball · 3rd & 4GB 70%

(10:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-52-R.Gary, Defensive Offside, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:11GB +13% win prob(10:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-52-R.Gary, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q2 · 12:38PIT +12% win prob(12:38) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 23 for -6 yards (96-K.Keke). FUMBLES (96-K.Keke) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-97-K.Clark at PIT 23.
Q2 · 11:03GB +9% win prob(11:03) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:25GB +6% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to PIT 41 for 21 yards (20-C.Sutton).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Packers
Offensive plays	58	70
Total yards	282	369 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	38%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.08
Third downs	4/11	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

20/36, 248 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · -6.7% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

26/40, 232 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.5 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

15 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

15 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

9/13 for 92 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Randall CobbWR

5/6 for 69 yds, 2 TD

17% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	10	75	4:56	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 22	10	38	5:54	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 4	4	5	0:57	Punt
4	GB	GB 36	14	64	4:51	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 25	4	-2	0:54	Fumble
6	GB	PIT 23	5	33	1:33	Touchdown
7	PIT	PIT 25	11	51	5:14	Turnover on downs
8	GB	GB 16	14	71	5:36	Turnover on downs
9	PIT	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
10	GB	GB 25	13	58	5:29	Turnover on downs
11	PIT	PIT 8	7	12	2:30	Punt
12	GB	PIT 40	5	40	2:15	Touchdown
13	PIT	PIT 36	8	31	2:13	Turnover on downs
14	GB	GB 33	2	29	0:52	Fumble
15	PIT	PIT 35	7	28	2:27	Punt
16	GB	GB 5	4	1	1:39	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 37	7	18	2:30	Turnover on downs
18	GB	GB 45	7	20	3:08	Turnover on downs
19	PIT	PIT 35	9	60	2:53	Touchdown
20	GB	GB 25	8	15	2:13	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 29	2	4	0:40	Interception
22	GB	GB 42	2	0	1:11	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	26/40	232	1	1	2	-10.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	15	62	4.1	1	2.7
Benny Snell	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	9	13	92	1	33%	0.7
James Washington	4	5	69	0	13%	3.6
Najee Harris	6	7	29	0	18%	-2.7
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2	8	11	0	21%	-6.8
Pat Freiermuth	1	1	11	0	3%	1.5
Zach Gentry	1	1	10	0	3%	0.8
Eric Ebron	2	2	8	0	5%	0.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5
Benny Snell	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cameron Heyward	5	3	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	2	0.0	0
Devin Bush	5	1	1.0	0
Joe Schobert	3	3	0.0	1
Terrell Edmunds	5	1	0.0	0
Joe Haden	1	3	0.0	1
Arthur Maulet	3	1	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	3	1	2.0	0
Alex Highsmith	1	3	0.0	0
Chris Wormley	2	1	0.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	20/36	248	2	0	3	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
A.J. Dillon	15	81	5.4	0	3.5
Aaron Jones	15	48	3.2	0	-5.8
Aaron Rodgers	3	2	0.7	1	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Randall Cobb	5	6	69	2	17%	9.7
Davante Adams	6	11	64	0	31%	-0.8
Aaron Jones	3	4	51	0	11%	2.9
Allen Lazard	2	3	33	0	9%	0.9
A.J. Dillon	1	1	16	0	3%	1.4
Robert Tonyan	2	7	8	0	20%	-3.9
Marcedes Lewis	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.4
Equanimeous St. Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	5	4	0.0	0	1
Eric Stokes	7	0	0.0	1	2
Rashan Gary	4	2	1.0	0	0
Oren Burks	2	3	0.0	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	4	1	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	1	3	0.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	1	1	0.0	0	0
Ty Summers	2	0	0.0	0	0
Dean Lowry	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -6.5
Closing total: 45
PIT moneyline: +239
GB moneyline: -276

Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 45; the game landed 44 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 67°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: PIT 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Matt LaFleur