2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Levi's Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -2.5 upsetU 52 ✓49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 28–21. Biggest swing: Q3 5:22, SEA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 5:22SEA — SF SF ballSEA 69%

5-J.Myers kicks 60 yards from SEA 35 to SF 5. 49-T.Cannon MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 11. 49-T.Cannon to SF 13 for 2 yards (31-D.Dallas). FUMBLES (31-D.Dallas), RECOVERED by SEA-59-J.Rhattigan at SF 14.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 5:22SEA +15% win prob5-J.Myers kicks 60 yards from SEA 35 to SF 5. 49-T.Cannon MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 11. 49-T.Cannon to SF 13 for 2 yards (31-D.Dallas). FUMBLES (31-D.Dallas), RECOVERED by SEA-59-J.Rhattigan at SF 14.
Q3 · 2:22SF +13% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 48. 52-YAC
Q2 · 2:00SF +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 7. 7-YAC
Q3 · 5:31SF +9% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	49ers
Offensive plays	52	73
Total yards	236	459 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	37%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	2/10 (edge)	2/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	13	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

49ers outgained Seahawks 459–236 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

14/23, 165 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.2 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Trey LanceQB

9/18, 157 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.9 expected points added · -12.8% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Trey SermonRB

19 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Alex CollinsRB

10 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

8/13 for 156 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

4/8 for 65 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	5	6	1:12	Punt
2	SF	SF 29	9	81	4:13	Touchdown
3	SEA	SEA 36	5	-4	2:18	Punt
4	SF	SF 18	5	18	1:57	Interception
5	SEA	SF 38	4	-5	1:42	Punt
6	SF	SF 9	9	68	5:07	Turnover on downs
7	SEA	SEA 31	4	-5	2:22	Punt
8	SF	SF 14	9	27	3:17	Punt
9	SEA	SEA 7	4	1	1:26	Punt
10	SF	SF 42	4	4	1:37	Punt
11	SEA	SEA 20	7	80	2:55	Touchdown
12	SF	SF 25	7	21	1:16	Punt
13	SEA	SEA 6	2	7	0:38	End of half
14	SF	SF 25	6	22	2:46	Punt
15	SEA	SEA 16	5	12	2:17	Punt
16	SF	SF 26	4	6	1:04	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 34	8	66	3:31	Touchdown
18	SF	—	1	0	0:06	Fumble
19	SEA	SF 14	3	14	0:50	Touchdown
20	SF	SF 11	6	89	2:16	Touchdown
21	SEA	SEA 19	12	53	5:03	Touchdown
22	SF	SF 15	5	2	1:33	Punt
23	SEA	50	4	5	1:03	Punt
24	SF	SF 20	8	29	3:19	Turnover on downs
25	SEA	SF 49	4	6	1:42	Punt
26	SF	SF 20	14	92	3:10	Touchdown
27	SEA	SEA 46	3	0	1:20	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 92 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	16/23	149	2	0	3	-4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	10	44	4.4	1	1.4
Chris Carson	13	30	2.3	0	-3.0
Russell Wilson	4	26	6.5	1	3.5
Travis Homer	1	5	5.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	4	8	65	1	36%	1.7
Alex Collins	2	2	34	0	9%	2.1
Tyler Lockett	4	5	24	0	23%	-0.8
Freddie Swain	3	4	20	1	18%	0.5
Will Dissly	2	2	5	0	9%	-1.0
Chris Carson	1	1	1	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	4	5	0.0	0	1
D.J. Reed	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jordyn Brooks	4	3	1.0	0	1
Quandre Diggs	5	2	0.0	1	2
Jamal Adams	4	2	0.0	0	1
Sidney Jones	4	2	0.0	0	1
Ryan Neal	4	1	0.0	0	1
Marquise Blair	2	1	0.0	0	1
Nick Bellore	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kerry Hyder	1	2	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	14/23	165	1	1	1	-1.2
Trey Lance	9/18	157	2	0	1	7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Trey Sermon	19	89	4.7	-0.1
Trey Lance	7	41	5.9	1.4
Jacques Patrick	2	12	6.0	0.8
Deebo Samuel	1	1	1.0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	8	13	156	2	33%	9.6
Kyle Juszczyk	4	4	41	0	10%	1.5
George Kittle	4	10	40	0	26%	-5.6
Mohamed Sanu	4	5	35	0	13%	3.8
Ross Dwelley	1	1	21	1	3%	2.4
Brandon Aiyuk	1	3	15	0	8%	-1.0
Jauan Jennings	1	1	14	0	3%	1.0
Trent Sherfield	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	4	6	0.0	0
Fred Warner	5	4	0.0	0
Marcell Harris	1	4	0.0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	2	2	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	1	3	0.0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	3	0	0.0	2
Nick Bosa	1	2	1.0	0
Jimmie Ward	1	2	0.0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	2	1	0.0	0
Dee Ford	2	1	2.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -2.5
Closing total: 52
SEA moneyline: +120
SF moneyline: -133

49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52; the game landed 49 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: SEA 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.