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Seattle Seahawks 28 at San Francisco 49ers 21. Final.
49ers -2.5 upsetU 52 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 4
Seattle Seahawks 28, 49ers 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 5:22 — 14.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 5:22
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
5-J.Myers kicks 60 yards from SEA 35 to SF 5. 49-T.Cannon MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 11. 49-T.Cannon to SF 13 for 2 yards (31-D.Dallas). FUMBLES (31-D.Dallas), RECOVERED by SEA-59-J.Rhattigan at SF 14.
49ers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 28–21. Biggest swing: Q3 5:22, Seahawks +14.7% win probability on one snap.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DK MetcalfSeahawksQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 7. 7-YAC
9.7pts
Deebo Samuel49ersQ3 2:22(2:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 48. 52-YAC
13.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.07 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Seahawks168 of 178 plays carry both curves
Q3 · 5:22Seahawks 14 — 49ers 7SF ballSEA 69%
Seahawks 69%49ers 31%
5-J.Myers kicks 60 yards from SEA 35 to SF 5. 49-T.Cannon MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 11. 49-T.Cannon to SF 13 for 2 yards (31-D.Dallas). FUMBLES (31-D.Dallas), RECOVERED by SEA-59-J.Rhattigan at SF 14.
Swing −14.7 for 49ersExpected points −6.34 for 49ersThe model had Seahawks 2 points higher than the market did.play 105
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 5:22SEA +15% win prob5-J.Myers kicks 60 yards from SEA 35 to SF 5. 49-T.Cannon MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 11. 49-T.Cannon to SF 13 for 2 yards (31-D.Dallas). FUMBLES (31-D.Dallas), RECOVERED by SEA-59-J.Rhattigan at SF 14.
3rd · 2:22SF +13% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 48. 52-YAC
2nd · 2:00SF +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 7. 7-YAC
3rd · 5:31SF +9% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-99-J.Kinlaw was injured during the play.
1st · 5:26SEA +8% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SF 43. 6-Q.Diggs to SF 38 for 5 yards (60-D.Brunskill).
1st · 14:02SEA +8% win prob(14:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf [99-J.Kinlaw].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Russell Wilson's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 5:31 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:40Ross Dwelley·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+70–7
2nd2:00DK Metcalf·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+77–7
3rd5:31Russell Wilson·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+714–7
3rd4:32Freddie Swain·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+721–7
49ers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Seahawks: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.0849ers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Seahawks: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.1749ers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Seahawks: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.0949ers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 52 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against 49ers’s 73 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, 49ers 3.
Note49ers outgained Seahawks 459-236 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.3% in week 3 against 21.4% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
49ers21.4%
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's sack or hit rate, 21.4% against a season mean of 15.8% — and SF swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%56 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%56 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
61Kyle FullerG · Every snap100%56 snaps
76Duane BrownT · Every snap100%56 snaps
70Cedric OgbuehiT · Full-time86%48 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time86%48 snaps
89Will DisslyTE · Full-time82%46 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Full-time82%46 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Heavy rotation68%38 snaps
18Freddie SwainWR · Rotational45%25 snaps
32Chris CarsonRB · Rotational45%25 snaps
41Alex CollinsRB · Rotational39%22 snaps
25Travis HomerRB · Situational16%9 snaps
19Penny HartWR · Situational14%8 snaps
85Tyler MabryTE · Situational14%8 snaps
74Jake CurhanT · Situational14%8 snaps
11Cody ThompsonWR · Situational5%3 snaps
44Nick BelloreLB · Situational2%1 snap
31DeeJay DallasRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
John ReidCBL.J. CollierDEBenson MayowaOLBBrandon ShellTJamarco JonesTD'Wayne EskridgeWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Myers kicks−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
5-J.Myers kicks 60 yards from SEA 35 to SF 5. 49-T.Cannon MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 11. 49-T.Cannon to SF 13 for 2 yards (31-D.Dallas). FUMBLES (31-D.Dallas), RECOVERED by SEA-59-J.Rhattigan at SF 14.
Q3 5:22 · 49ers · Kickoff at SEA 35 · gained nothing · -6.34 EP · −14.9% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 89 yards from the SF 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
693
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.1672%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29+0.2748%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.1943%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.6060%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3140%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 31
Seahawks049ers6
Seahawks049ers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the Seahawks 21
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Seahawks 39
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the 49ers 36
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 35
The period ended7 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the Seahawks 25
2nd quarter43 plays
No good3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 33
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Seahawks 8
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the 49ers 47
Seahawks649ers7
Seahawks749ers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the 49ers 12
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 46
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Seahawks 11
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 47
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 28
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFour
Seahawks1349ers7
Seahawks1449ers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the 49ers 16
Fumble lost1 play
Seahawks2049ers7
Seahawks2149ers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 13
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Seahawks2149ers13
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 11 to the 49ers 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 47
4th quarter57 plays
Seahawks2749ers13
Seahawks2849ers13
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the 49ers 14
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 18
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 48
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the 49ers 43
Seahawks2849ers19
Seahawks2849ers21
Touchdown18 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Seahawks 8
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Seahawkscategory by category49ers
Seahawks0
49ers6
