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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 at New England Patriots 17. Final.
Buccaneers -6 no coverU 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19, Patriots 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:59, 4th and 3, on Nick Folk — 34.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:59 · 4th and 3
Nick Folk
Buccaneers
(:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Buccaneers closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:59, Buccaneers +34.6% win probability on one snap.
34.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.J. TaylorBuccaneersQ3 11:19(11:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 42-J.Taylor to TB 28 for no gain (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-5-R.Sherman at TB 28. 5-R.Sherman to TB 32 for 4 yards (42-J.Taylor).
16.1pts
Nelson AgholorPatriotsQ4 6:10(6:10) (No Huddle) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor pushed ob at TB 9 for 30 yards (5-R.Sherman) [9-J.Tryon]. flea flicker snap to NE 10-Jones, hand-off to NE 37-Harris, lateral to NE 16-Meyers
13.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.49 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 9 of 18 on third down, against Patriots at 2 of 9 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Patriots at 3 chunk plays.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Buccaneers171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Swing −34.6 for PatriotsExpected points −0.86 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 5 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:59TB +35% win prob(:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
3rd · 11:19TB +16% win prob(11:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 42-J.Taylor to TB 28 for no gain (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-5-R.Sherman at TB 28. 5-R.Sherman to TB 32 for 4 yards (42-J.Taylor).
4th · 6:10NE +13% win prob(6:10) (No Huddle) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor pushed ob at TB 9 for 30 yards (5-R.Sherman) [9-J.Tryon]. flea flicker snap to NE 10-Jones, hand-off to NE 37-Harris, lateral to NE 16-Meyers
4th · 3:03NE +13% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-A.Brown to NE 32 for 8 yards (29-J.Bethel).
4th · 3:43TB +12% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans to NE 37 for 4 yards (27-J.Jackson). PENALTY on TB-13-M.Evans, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.
4th · 4:34NE +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ryan Succop's 48-yard field goal with 2:02 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:53Ryan Succop·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Tinker+33–0
2nd8:35Hunter Henry·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+73–7
2nd0:18Ryan Succop·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Tinker+36–7
4th15:00Jonnu Smith·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+713–14
4th8:01Ryan Succop·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Tinker+316–14
4th4:37Nick Folk·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+316–17
4th2:02Ryan Succop·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.TinkerLead never changed again+319–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPatriots
Buccaneers6–3Patriots
384Total yards295
5.4Yards per play5.6
44%Success rate47%
50%Third-down rate22%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays3
20First downs17
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers3
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Buccaneers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.08Patriots: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Buccaneers: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.02Patriots: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Buccaneers: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.49Patriots: −0.49 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 71 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Patriots’s 53 at 87%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Patriots 3.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's sack or hit rate, 26.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 3.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's early-down pass rate, 84.1%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.8 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, +24.3 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 4 — 14.2 points clear of the next team along.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points.
NE's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.2% in week 3 against 6.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
TB's early-down pass rate turned over: 83.9% in week 3 against 60.4% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
off script — got home · +10.0 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+2.08× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Patriots6.7%
inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.1%, 10.0 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 2.1 times their own 4.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Nick Folk−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q4 0:59 · Patriots · 4th & 3 at TB 37 · gained nothing · -0.86 EP · −38.1% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
41%
Yards
675
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.2474%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0597%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.1235%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.3662%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0488%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4240%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 23
Buccaneers3Patriots0
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Patriots 11
Intercepted5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 42
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Patriots 21
2nd quarter48 plays
No good3 plays
Buccaneers3Patriots6
Buccaneers3Patriots7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Buccaneers 11
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 37
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Buccaneers 44
Buccaneers6Patriots7
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 5 to the Patriots 26
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Buccaneers 18
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Buccaneers 38 to the Buccaneers 28
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Buccaneers 40
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 27
Buccaneers12Patriots7
Buccaneers13Patriots7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Patriots 8
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Buccaneers 16
4th quarter54 plays
Buccaneers13Patriots13
Buccaneers13Patriots14
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Buccaneers16Patriots14
Field goal17 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Patriots 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Buccaneers16Patriots17
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Buccaneers 9
Buccaneers19Patriots17
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Patriots 30
No good9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Buccaneers 37
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -6
Closing total
49.5
Buccaneers moneyline
-255
Patriots moneyline
+223
Buccaneers closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 36 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 60°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-east; 0.17 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Bill Belichick
(4:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 7-L.Fournette. PENALTY on NE-53-K.Van Noy, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at TB 25 - No Play.
2nd · 2:00NE +11% win prob(2:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to TB 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater. TB-24-C.Davis was injured during the play. He is Out.
4th · 15:00NE +11% win prob(15:00) 67-T.Karras reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
