2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Gillette Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

New England Patriots

TB -6 no coverU 49.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:59, TB +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:59TB — NE NE ball · 4th & 3TB 62%

(:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:59TB +35% win prob(:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q3 · 11:19TB +16% win prob(11:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 42-J.Taylor to TB 28 for no gain (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), RECOVERED by TB-5-R.Sherman at TB 28. 5-R.Sherman to TB 32 for 4 yards (42-J.Taylor).
Q4 · 6:10NE +13% win prob(6:10) (No Huddle) 16-J.Meyers pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor pushed ob at TB 9 for 30 yards (5-R.Sherman) [9-J.Tryon]. flea flicker snap to NE 10-Jones, hand-off to NE 37-Harris, lateral to NE 16-Meyers
Q4 · 3:03NE +13% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-A.Brown to NE 32 for 8 yards (29-J.Bethel).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Patriots
Offensive plays	71	53
Total yards	384 (edge)	295
Yards per play	5.4	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	44%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	87%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.49
Third downs	9/18 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

31/40, 275 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.5 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

22/43, 269 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2.2 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

20 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

6 att, 25 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

7/12 for 75 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

8/12 for 70 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 40	7	12	2:06	Punt
2	TB	TB 11	7	34	2:59	Punt
3	NE	NE 20	4	3	1:13	Fumble
4	TB	TB 18	10	71	3:53	Turnover on downs
5	NE	NE 25	5	17	1:10	Interception
6	TB	TB 34	10	43	3:50	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 26	12	74	6:21	Touchdown
8	TB	TB 25	8	10	3:34	Punt
9	NE	NE 32	6	24	3:05	Punt
10	TB	TB 5	8	69	1:36	Turnover on downs
11	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
12	TB	TB 14	5	10	2:14	Punt
13	NE	TB 38	3	10	1:35	Fumble
14	TB	TB 32	4	8	1:30	Punt
15	NE	NE 23	4	-11	2:24	Punt
16	TB	TB 48	9	47	3:48	Touchdown
17	NE	NE 23	9	77	3:32	Touchdown
18	TB	TB 24	16	68	6:59	Turnover on downs
19	NE	NE 25	9	66	3:24	Turnover on downs
20	TB	TB 25	8	24	2:37	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 25	7	23	1:02	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 46	3	0	0:55	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 77 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	22/43	269	0	0	1	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	20	92	4.6	0	1.7
Ronald Jones	6	25	4.2	1	1.5
Tom Brady	4	3	0.8	0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	7	12	75	28%	1.0
Antonio Brown	7	11	63	26%	4.3
Chris Godwin	3	5	55	12%	1.2
Leonard Fournette	3	5	47	12%	2.4
Cameron Brate	2	6	29	14%	-1.2
O.J. Howard	0	1	0	2%	-1.7
Codey McElroy	0	1	0	2%	-0.7
Tyler Johnson	0	2	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Antoine Winfield	5	2	0.0	1	1
Richard Sherman	7	0	0.0	0	0
Lavonte David	5	2	0.0	0	1
William Gholston	4	0	1.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	0	1.0	0	1
Devin White	3	0	0.0	0	1
Ross Cockrell	1	1	0.0	0	1
Pierre Desir	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	2	0	0.0	0	0
Joe Tryon	2	0	2.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	31/40	275	2	1	4	2.5
Jakobi Meyers	2/2	45	0	0	0	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nelson Agholor	1	4	4.0	0.0
Brandon Bolden	1	0	0.0	-0.4
J.J. Taylor	1	0	0.0	-0.5
Mac Jones	1	-1	-1.0	0.0
Damien Harris	4	-4	-1.0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	8	12	70	0	29%	1.0
Kendrick Bourne	5	5	58	0	12%	3.2
Nelson Agholor	3	5	55	0	12%	-1.2
Brandon Bolden	6	6	51	0	14%	2.3
Hunter Henry	4	5	32	1	12%	2.5
Damien Harris	2	2	30	0	5%	2.2
Jonnu Smith	3	5	14	1	12%	-0.6
N'Keal Harry	1	1	10	0	2%	0.9
J.J. Taylor	1	1	0	0	2%	-5.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jonathan Jones	7	2	0.0	0
J.C. Jackson	5	1	0.0	1
Matt Judon	2	3	1.0	0
Kyle Dugger	4	1	0.0	0
Adrian Phillips	3	1	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	3	0	0.0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	2	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	2	1	0.0	1
Lawrence Guy	2	1	0.0	0
Dont'a Hightower	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -6
Closing total: 49.5
TB moneyline: -255
NE moneyline: +223

Buccaneers closed -6, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 36 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: TB 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Bill Belichick