2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Tennessee Titans

New York JetsWinner

TEN -5.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓Titans closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 0:19, TEN +68% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 0:19TEN — NYJ TEN ball · 4th & 10TEN 68%

(:19) 14-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 0:19TEN +68% win prob(:19) 14-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.
OT · 4:33TEN +35% win prob(4:33) 6-M.Ammendola 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
OT · 1:10NYJ +31% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to NYJ 43 for 2 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
OT · 8:18NYJ +28% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 88-K.Cole ran ob at TEN 27 for 29 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Jets
Offensive plays	94	59
Total yards	432 (edge)	356
Yards per play	4.6	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	62%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	5/19	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	7	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

30/49, 298 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.3 expected points added · -2.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

21/34, 297 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

9.1 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

33 att, 157 yds, 1 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

13 att, 38 yds, 1 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Corey DavisWR

4/7 for 111 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Keelan ColeWR

3/4 for 92 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 21	5	3	1:44	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 43	12	32	6:10	Turnover on downs
3	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	10	3:03	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 16	11	73	6:10	Turnover on downs
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	3	2	0:38	Interception
6	TEN	NYJ 32	5	0	1:46	Turnover on downs
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	75	5:40	Touchdown
8	TEN	TEN 25	5	8	1:27	Punt
9	NYJ	TEN 45	4	-4	1:33	Punt
10	TEN	TEN 9	7	38	1:49	End of half
11	TEN	TEN 25	8	16	4:00	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	9	2:06	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 19	9	43	5:18	Punt
14	NYJ	NYJ 13	8	78	3:17	Turnover on downs
15	TEN	TEN 25	8	77	2:05	Touchdown
16	NYJ	NYJ 23	6	34	1:44	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 25	5	4	2:14	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 47	2	53	0:10	Touchdown
19	TEN	TEN 25	5	0	0:19	Punt
20	NYJ	NYJ 34	4	6	1:51	Punt
21	TEN	TEN 35	9	45	3:15	Turnover on downs
22	NYJ	NYJ 21	6	19	1:32	Punt
23	TEN	TEN 26	12	52	1:53	Touchdown
24	NYJ	NYJ 17	2	0	0:16	Turnover on downs
25	NYJ	NYJ 25	14	71	5:29	Turnover on downs
26	TEN	TEN 25	14	44	4:16	Turnover on downs

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 78 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	30/49	298	1	0	7	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	33	157	4.8	1	3.1
Jeremy McNichols	1	11	11.0	0	0.8
Ryan Tannehill	3	9	3.0	0	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jeremy McNichols	8	12	74	0	24%	3.7
Chester Rogers	5	6	63	0	12%	1.5
Josh Reynolds	6	9	59	0	18%	3.7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	3	8	29	0	16%	-4.2
Anthony Firkser	3	5	23	0	10%	0.8
Derrick Henry	2	2	20	0	4%	2.7
Tommy Hudson	1	1	14	0	2%	1.0
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	14	0	2%	1.9
Cameron Batson	1	4	2	1	8%	0.1
Geoff Swaim	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Harold Landry	5	2	1.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	3	3	0.0	0	1
Dane Cruikshank	4	1	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	4	0	0.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kristian Fulton	3	0	0.0	1	1
Denico Autry	3	0	0.0	0	0
Breon Borders	2	0	0.0	0	0
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	1	1	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	21/34	297	2	1	1	9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	13	38	2.9	1	-2.6
Braxton Berrios	2	15	7.5	0	1.0
Tevin Coleman	4	14	3.5	0	0.2
Ty Johnson	3	1	0.3	0	-2.2
Zach Wilson	3	-2	-0.7	0	-3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	4	7	111	1	21%	3.5
Keelan Cole	3	4	92	0	12%	5.9
Jamison Crowder	7	9	61	1	26%	3.4
Tevin Coleman	2	2	17	0	6%	2.1
Ty Johnson	2	2	12	0	6%	1.3
Ryan Griffin	1	4	8	0	12%	-1.8
Braxton Berrios	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Trevon Wesco	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3
Tyler Kroft	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Michael Carter	1	3	-4	0	9%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quincy Williams	9	2	1.0	1
C.J. Mosley	8	3	1.0	0
Javelin Guidry	8	1	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	6	1	2.0	0
Bryce Hall	3	2	0.5	3
Michael Carter	4	1	0.0	1
Folorunso Fatukasi	4	1	0.0	0
Ashtyn Davis	3	0	0.0	0
John Franklin-Myers	2	1	1.0	0
Nathan Shepherd	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -5.5
Closing total: 44.5
TEN moneyline: -234
NYJ moneyline: +206

Titans closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 51 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: TEN 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Robert Saleh