For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Titans200 of 217 plays carry both curves
(:19) 14-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.
Swing +68.4 for JetsExpected points +1.97 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 216
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 0:19TEN +68% win prob(:19) 14-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.
Overtime · 4:33TEN +35% win prob(4:33) 6-M.Ammendola 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.
Overtime · 1:10NYJ +31% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to NYJ 43 for 2 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
Overtime · 8:18NYJ +28% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 88-K.Cole ran ob at TEN 27 for 29 yards.
4th · 9:16NYJ +28% win prob(9:16) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 84-C.Davis for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 2:19NYJ +23% win prob(2:19) 22-D.Henry right end to TEN 47 for 13 yards (40-J.Guidry).
4th · 0:19NYJ +19% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Ammendola's 22-yard field goal with 4:33 left in overtime put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:10Randy Bullock·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap M.Cox+33–0
2nd12:58Randy Bullock·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap M.Cox+36–0
2nd10:33Randy Bullock·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap M.Cox+39–0
4th0:19Cameron Batson·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+724–24
Overtime4:33Matt Ammendola·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+324–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryJets
Titans5–3Jets
432Total yards356
4.6Yards per play6.0
46%Success rate44%
26%Third-down rate43%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays6
28First downs15
7Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Titans: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.03Jets: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Titans: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.22Jets: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.26Jets: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 94 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Jets’s 59 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Titans 6, Jets 5.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 3 against 2.8% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 4.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.3% in week 3 against 24.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jets24.1%
leaned — got home · +10.9 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.84× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.8%, 9.7 points below their season mean of 12.5% and 1.9 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Randy Bullock−68% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:19) 14-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.
OT 0:19 · Titans · 4th & 10 at NYJ 31 · gained nothing · -1.97 EP · −68.4% win probability
198 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 217 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 217 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 78 yards from the NYJ 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
217 of 217 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
217
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
40%
Yards
787
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63-0.0068%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4675%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.3044%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2250%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.3717%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
217 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
217 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Jets 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Titans3Jets0
Field goal15 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Jets 17
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 38
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Jets 36
2nd quarter46 plays
Titans6Jets0
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 11
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 27
Titans9Jets0
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 10
Titans9Jets6
Titans9Jets7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Titans 2
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Titans 40
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Titans 45
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 29
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Jets 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
Titans9Jets10
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Titans 9
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter66 plays
Titans15Jets10
Titans17Jets10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Jets 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Titans17Jets16
Titans17Jets17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Titans 3
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.9 seconds
Titans17Jets23
Titans17Jets24
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Jets 20
Drive ended3 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Jets 27
Punt7 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Titans23Jets24
Titans24Jets24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Jets 2
The period ended3 plays
Overtime34 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Titans24Jets27
Field goal16 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Titans 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
No good17 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jets 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
