2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

WAS -1 ✓O 47.5 ✓Commanders closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.

Washington Commanders 34–30. Biggest swing: Q4 0:46, ATL +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:46WAS — ATL WAS ball · 3rd & 7WAS 57%

(:46) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 41-J.McKissic for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:46ATL +33% win prob(:46) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 41-J.McKissic for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 15:00ATL +22% win prob9-C.Nizialek kicks 66 yards from ATL 35 to WAS -1. 1-D.Carter for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:02ATL +16% win prob(4:02) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-F.Oluokun].
Q4 · 1:12ATL +16% win prob(1:12) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 13-A.Humphries pushed ob at ATL 33 for 19 yards (35-A.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Falcons
Offensive plays	63	71
Total yards	413 (edge)	374
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.11
Success rate	51% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	62%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.56 (edge)	0.29
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	-0.20 (edge)
Third downs	4/9	10/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0	0

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

23/33, 290 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

18.1 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

25/42, 283 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

12.3 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

14 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

5 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

6/13 for 123 yds, 2 TD

39% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

5/6 for 82 yds, 3 TD

15% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	16	78	8:00	Turnover on downs
2	WAS	WAS 33	8	16	2:58	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 14	6	11	2:15	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 29	8	35	3:34	Turnover on downs
5	ATL	ATL 36	5	69	2:06	Touchdown
6	WAS	WAS 23	9	77	3:12	Touchdown
7	ATL	ATL 23	5	0	1:48	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 37	8	56	4:03	Touchdown
9	ATL	ATL 25	13	47	1:50	Touchdown
10	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:14	End of half
11	WAS	—	2	0	0:13	Defensive touchdown
12	ATL	ATL 32	10	41	3:38	Touchdown
13	WAS	WAS 25	15	73	5:38	Turnover on downs
14	ATL	ATL 17	15	68	5:39	Touchdown
15	WAS	WAS 25	5	5	2:04	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 29	6	16	2:48	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 30	11	75	6:08	Touchdown
18	ATL	ATL 25	5	6	2:05	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 24	8	76	1:14	Touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 25	6	38	0:33	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 78 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	23/33	290	3	0	1	18.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	14	63	4.5	1	-2.4
Taylor Heinicke	5	43	8.6	0	3.8
J.D. McKissic	7	15	2.1	0	-3.0
Jaret Patterson	2	1	0.5	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	6	13	123	2	39%	7.1
J.D. McKissic	5	5	44	1	15%	3.7
DeAndre Carter	1	1	24	0	3%	1.6
Ricky Seals-Jones	2	4	19	0	12%	-2.1
Adam Humphries	1	1	19	0	3%	1.6
Curtis Samuel	4	4	19	0	12%	5.0
Dyami Brown	1	2	19	0	6%	1.1
Antonio Gibson	2	2	12	0	6%	-0.0
Jaret Patterson	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Cole Holcomb	3	5	0
Jonathan Allen	2	5	0
Jon Bostic	3	3	0
Landon Collins	3	3	0
Daron Payne	2	3	0
Bobby McCain	5	0	3
Kamren Curl	3	2	0
Matt Ioannidis	2	2	0
William Jackson	3	0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	0	2

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	25/42	283	4	0	1	12.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	6	34	5.7	0.2
Wayne Gallman	6	29	4.8	0.0
Matt Ryan	1	17	17.0	0.5
Mike Davis	13	14	1.1	-5.8
Feleipe Franks	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Keith Smith	1	2	2.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	5	6	82	3	15%	10.6
Calvin Ridley	7	13	80	0	33%	0.1
Kyle Pitts	4	9	50	0	23%	1.9
Hayden Hurst	4	4	29	0	10%	1.6
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	3	15	0	8%	-0.6
Tajae Sharpe	2	2	15	0	5%	0.8
Mike Davis	2	2	12	1	5%	1.7
Wayne Gallman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Deion Jones	4	7	0.0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	5	6	1.0	1
Erik Harris	4	2	0.0	3
Avery Williams	3	3	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	3	1	0.0	1
Fabian Moreau	2	1	0.0	0
Steven Means	2	1	0.0	0
Dante Fowler	2	1	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	1	1	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -1
Closing total: 47.5
WAS moneyline: -117
ATL moneyline: +106

Commanders closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 64 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: WAS 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Arthur Smith