For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 3, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 4
It turned at Q4 0:46, 3rd and 7, on J.D. McKissic — 32.7 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:46 · 3rd and 7
J.D. McKissic
Commanders
(:46) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 41-J.McKissic for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Washington Commanders 34–30. Biggest swing: Q4 0:46, Commanders +32.7% win probability on one snap.
32.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 16 on third down, against Commanders at 4 of 9 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 6 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Commanders at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Commanders won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(:46) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 41-J.McKissic for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
J.D. McKissic's 30-yard touchdown catch with 0:46 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
DeAndre Carter101-yd return TD101-yard return touchdownon the kick · kick no good, hit right upright+619–17
Cordarrelle Patterson14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryan · two-point no good+619–23
Terry McLaurin17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinicke · two-point no good+628–30
J.D. McKissic30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Taylor Heinicke · two-point no goodLead never changed again+634–3011 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryFalcons
Commanders ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 63 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Falcons’s 71 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Falcons 5.
Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-4.1 ptsright on their number · −0.3 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 61 snaps
Falcons-6.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Commanders56.0%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 50 early downs
Falcons51.9%right on their number · −4.6 vs their 56.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Commanders40.0%right on their number · +4.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Falcons—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 37.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders15.9%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Falcons10.3%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was ATL's pass rate over expected, -6.0 pts against a season mean of -1.2 pts — and ATL swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
23/33, 290 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
18.1 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
25/42, 283 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
12.3 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected
Receiving · WAS
6/13 for 123 yds, 2 TD
39% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added
Receiving · ATL
5/6 for 82 yds, 3 TD
15% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Cordarrelle Patterson banked 20.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Receiving Back | 34.6 | +20.9 | 30% | 33% | 15% | 13% | 6 car, 34 yd · 5/6, 82 yd, 3 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.3 | +4.2 | 97% | 87% | 39% | 74% | 6/13, 123 yd, 2 TD |
| Matt RyanQB · Starter QB | 29.0 | +5.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/42, 283 yd, 4 TD · 1 car, 17 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 27.9 | +7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 290 yd, 3 TD · 5 car, 43 yd |
| J.D. McKissicRB · Receiving Back | 16.9 | +3.7 | 40% | 41% | 15% | 0% | 7 car, 15 yd · 5/5, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 15.5 | +3.4 | 55% | 46% | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 63 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Calvin RidleyWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.0 | −8.4 | 96% | 96% | 33% | 45% | 7/13, 80 yd |
| Mike DavisRB · Committee Back | 10.6 | −0.9 | 67% | 73% | 5% | 0% | 13 car, 14 yd · 2/2, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.4 | +7.4 | 16% | 15% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 24 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 9.0 | −8.8 | 72% | 78% | 23% | 20% | 4/9, 50 yd |
| Hayden HurstTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.9 | +0.8 | 64% | 67% | 10% | 3% | 4/4, 29 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +0.8 | 37% | 33% | 12% | 0% | 4/4, 19 yd |
| Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −3.6 | 93% | 82% | 12% | 11% | 2/4, 19 yd |
| Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.2 | 28% | 31% | 5% | 3% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Wayne GallmanRB | 2.9 | −1.3 | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 6 car, 29 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −2.5 | 42% | 36% | 6% | 10% | 1/2, 19 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.4 | 67% | 67% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −5.7 | 80% | 80% | 8% | 9% | 1/3, 15 yd |
| Jaret PattersonRB | 2.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.2 | −0.1 | 21% | 9% | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Avery WilliamsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Christian BlakeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cam SimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:46) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 41-J.McKissic for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 0:46 · Commanders · 3rd & 7 at ATL 30 · gained 30 · +4.13 EP · +37.3% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 188 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 83 yards from the ATL 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Falcons3Commanders0Falcons9Commanders0Falcons10Commanders6Falcons10Commanders7Falcons10Commanders13Falcons10Commanders13Falcons16Commanders13Falcons17Commanders19Falcons17Commanders19Falcons23Commanders22Falcons23Commanders22Falcons29Commanders22Falcons30Commanders28Falcons30Commanders34Falcons30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 23/33 | 290 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +18.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 | −2.4 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 | +3.8 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 13 | 123 | 2 | 39% | +7.1 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 15% | +3.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Holcomb | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Allen | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Bostic | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon Collins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/42 | 283 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_04_WAS_ATL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 64 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
| Jaret Patterson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.2 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12% | −2.1 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.6 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 12% | +5.0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −0.0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Daron Payne | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby McCain | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kamren Curl | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Ioannidis | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 |
| 34 |
| 5.7 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Mike Davis | 13 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 | −5.8 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 6 | 82 | 3 | 15% | +10.6 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 13 | 80 | 0 | 33% | +0.1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 23% | +1.9 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 10% | +1.6 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8% | −0.6 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 5% | +1.7 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Jones | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Foyesade Oluokun | 5 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Erik Harris | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Avery Williams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Duron Harmon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fabian Moreau | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Means | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Fowler | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
