2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -2.5 upsetO 57 ✓Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, BUF +66% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:02BUF — KC BUF ballBUF 84%

7-H.Butker kicks 12 yards from KC 35 to KC 47, impetus ends at 50. 46-Jaq.Johnson (didn't try to advance) to KC 47 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:02BUF +66% win prob7-H.Butker kicks 12 yards from KC 35 to KC 47, impetus ends at 50. 46-Jaq.Johnson (didn't try to advance) to KC 47 for no gain.
Q2 · 4:56KC +16% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs to KC 11 for 61 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
Q1 · 4:36BUF +12% win prob2-T.Bass kicks 68 yards from BUF 35 to KC -3. 13-B.Pringle to KC 28 for 31 yards (33-S.Neal). FUMBLES (33-S.Neal), RECOVERED by BUF-9-A.Smith at KC 34. Penalty on KC-44-D.O'Daniel, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q3 · 7:20BUF +12% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at KC 26. 23-M.Hyde for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Chiefs
Offensive plays	51	79
Total yards	439 (edge)	392
Yards per play	8.6 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.35 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	49%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.59 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.45
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/26, 315 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.4 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

33/54, 272 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-9.9 expected points added · -3.6% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

8 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

11 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Dawson KnoxTE

3/4 for 117 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Mecole HardmanWR

9/12 for 76 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -3.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	18	62	6:29	Turnover on downs
2	BUF	BUF 25	10	75	3:55	Touchdown
3	KC	—	1	0	0:07	Fumble
4	BUF	KC 34	4	9	1:34	Punt
5	KC	KC 20	13	80	7:55	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 25	7	75	2:15	Touchdown
7	KC	KC 28	5	7	1:59	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 26	7	62	2:33	Turnover on downs
9	KC	KC 40	6	33	1:23	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 32	3	68	0:34	Touchdown
11	KC	KC 25	9	49	1:14	Turnover on downs
12	BUF	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 25	5	8	1:24	Punt
14	KC	KC 22	6	17	2:47	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 19	5	41	2:20	Punt
16	KC	KC 8	5	16	1:17	Defensive touchdown
17	KC	KC 25	10	52	4:18	Interception
18	BUF	BUF 17	4	0	1:40	Punt
19	KC	KC 48	8	34	2:32	Touchdown
20	BUF	BUF 15	14	78	7:51	Touchdown
21	KC	KC 23	11	42	2:24	Fumble
22	BUF	BUF 35	8	23	3:27	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 80 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	15/26	315	3	0	0	14.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	11	59	5.4	1	4.9
Zack Moss	11	37	3.4	0	-2.1
Devin Singletary	6	25	4.2	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dawson Knox	3	4	117	1	17%	8.7
Stefon Diggs	2	5	69	0	21%	2.4
Zack Moss	3	4	55	0	17%	3.4
Emmanuel Sanders	3	5	54	2	21%	5.5
Gabe Davis	1	1	16	0	4%	1.2
Cole Beasley	1	2	5	0	8%	-2.1
Tommy Sweeney	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.5
Devin Singletary	1	2	-2	0	8%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Taron Johnson	8	4	0.0	0	1
A.J. Klein	8	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	5	3	0.0	0	1
Tremaine Edmunds	4	3	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	5	1	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	2	0.0	0	0
Gregory Rousseau	4	1	1.0	1	1
Siran Neal	1	1	0.0	0	0
Mario Addison	2	0	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	2	0	0.0	1	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	33/54	272	2	2	2	-9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	8	61	7.6	-0.8
Darrel Williams	5	27	5.4	-0.1
Tyreek Hill	1	15	15.0	0.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	7	13	1.9	-2.2
Jerick McKinnon	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Michael Burton	1	2	2.0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mecole Hardman	9	12	76	0	24%	-3.7
Tyreek Hill	7	13	63	0	26%	-6.0
Travis Kelce	6	10	57	1	20%	-0.9
Darrel Williams	3	5	18	0	10%	0.1
Jerick McKinnon	2	2	13	0	4%	0.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	2	11	0	4%	0.5
Byron Pringle	2	2	11	1	4%	1.9
Josh Gordon	1	1	11	0	2%	0.6
Demarcus Robinson	1	2	8	0	4%	0.0
Blake Bell	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Anthony Hitchens	4	2	0
Daniel Sorensen	3	2	0
Michael Danna	1	3	0
Nick Bolton	4	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	3	0	0
Rashad Fenton	3	0	1
Tershawn Wharton	1	1	0
Willie Gay	2	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -2.5
Closing total: 57
BUF moneyline: +121
KC moneyline: -134

Chiefs closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 57; the game landed 58 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BUF 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Andy Reid