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Chicago Bears 20, Raiders 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 7:26, 3rd and 12, on Darnell Mooney — 10.9 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:26 · 3rd and 12
Darnell Mooney
Bears
(7:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 11-D.Mooney to CHI 40 for 13 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
Dome
Raiders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 20–9. Biggest swing: Q4 7:26, Bears +10.9% win probability on one snap.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh JacobsBearsQ2 10:18(10:18) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 27 for no gain (52-K.Mack). PENALTY on CHI-97-M.Edwards, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced between downs.
8.1pts
Damien WilliamsBearsQ2 2:00(2:00) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 8-D.Williams left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 1 giveaway.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Bears161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(7:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 11-D.Mooney to CHI 40 for 13 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
Swing −10.9 for RaidersExpected points −2.28 for RaidersThe model had Bears 4 points higher than the market did.play 145
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:26LV +11% win prob(7:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 11-D.Mooney to CHI 40 for 13 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
2nd · 10:18CHI +8% win prob(10:18) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 27 for no gain (52-K.Mack). PENALTY on CHI-97-M.Edwards, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 2:00LV +8% win prob(2:00) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 8-D.Williams left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:50LV +8% win prob(2:50) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
4th · 12:49LV +7% win prob(12:49) 3-N.Peterman up the middle to CHI 31 for 1 yard (98-B.Nichols, 58-R.Smith). Chicago challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 12:45.)
2nd · 3:56LV +7% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 12-A.Robinson to LV 20 for 12 yards (39-N.Hobbs) [24-J.Abram]. CHI-74-G.Ifedi was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jesper Horsted's 2-yard touchdown catch with 13:16 left in the 2nd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:05Daniel Carlson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+30–3
4th9:05Josh Jacobs·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+614–9
4th2:50Cairo Santos·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+317–9
4th1:01Cairo Santos·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+320–9
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryRaiders
Bears7–2Raiders
252Total yards259
4.3Yards per play4.2
46%Success rate38%
46%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays3
15First downs14
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.00Bears: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.18Raiders: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Bears: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.25Raiders: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Bears: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.03Raiders: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 59 snaps at a 37% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Bears 2, Raiders 2.
NoteRaiders outgained Bears 259-252 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, −16.1 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 3.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −14.3 pts in week 4.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's sack or hit rate, 27.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.4% in week 2.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
LV's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, sat 48.5 points above their season number of 26.5% — they went for it by 2.1 times their own 23.2-point weekly swing.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Raiders27.3%
leaned — got home · +10.5 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.69× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -16.1 pts, 13.6 points below their season mean of -2.5 pts and 2.2 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at CHI 39 for 29 yards (4-E.Jackson).
Q1 7:58 · Raiders · 3rd & 9 at LV 32 · gained 29 · +3.15 EP · +9.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 86 yards from the CHI 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
40%
Yards
511
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1973%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.0250%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0357%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.530%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5033%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.5660%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0420%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 34
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 28
Bears0Raiders3
Field goal17 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Bears 2
The period ended10 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Raiders 24
2nd quarter44 plays
Bears6Raiders3
Bears7Raiders3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Raiders 2
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Bears 27
Bears13Raiders3
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Raiders 4
Bears14Raiders3
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Raiders 44
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 27
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 27
Punt4 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 38
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 41
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Bears 47
4th quarter47 plays
Bears14Raiders9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 1
Bears17Raiders9
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Raiders 28
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 30
Bears20Raiders9
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Raiders 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -5.5
Closing total
46
Bears moneyline
+215
Raiders moneyline
-245
Raiders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 29 — under by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Bears 7 days · Raiders 6 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Jon Gruden
1st · 7:58LV +7% win prob(7:58) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at CHI 39 for 29 yards (4-E.Jackson).
3rd · 11:09CHI +7% win prob(11:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right intended for 7-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Houston-Carson at CHI 45. 36-D.Houston-Carson ran ob at CHI 45 for no gain.
