2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

LV -5.5 upsetU 46 ✓DomeRaiders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 20–9. Biggest swing: Q4 7:26, LV +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:26CHI — LV CHI ball · 3rd & 12CHI 70%

(7:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 11-D.Mooney to CHI 40 for 13 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:26LV +11% win prob(7:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle to 11-D.Mooney to CHI 40 for 13 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).
Q2 · 10:18CHI +8% win prob(10:18) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 27 for no gain (52-K.Mack). PENALTY on CHI-97-M.Edwards, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 · 2:00LV +8% win prob(2:00) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 8-D.Williams left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:50LV +8% win prob(2:50) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Raiders
Offensive plays	59	61
Total yards	252	259 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	0.00 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	46% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	37%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	3 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Raiders outgained Bears 259–252 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

22/35, 206 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.3 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

12/20, 111 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.6 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

18 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Damien WilliamsRB

16 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Hunter RenfrowWR

6/8 for 56 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Henry RuggsWR

3/3 for 51 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 28	5	7	2:02	Punt
2	LV	LV 27	4	3	1:23	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 19	4	4	1:27	Punt
4	LV	LV 19	13	89	6:08	Turnover on downs
5	CHI	CHI 28	12	61	5:49	Touchdown
6	LV	LV 18	6	38	2:58	Turnover on downs
7	CHI	CHI 14	17	86	8:17	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 25	5	-4	1:06	Punt
9	CHI	CHI 40	5	6	0:50	End of half
10	LV	LV 25	5	8	1:24	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 18	4	9	1:54	Punt
12	LV	LV 21	3	6	0:41	Interception
13	CHI	CHI 45	4	0	0:57	Punt
14	LV	LV 11	9	30	4:13	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 17	6	24	3:31	Punt
16	LV	LV 26	17	54	8:19	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 15	11	53	6:16	Turnover on downs
18	LV	LV 25	5	10	0:50	Turnover on downs
19	CHI	LV 30	4	2	0:59	Turnover on downs
20	LV	LV 19	4	25	0:56	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 89 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	12/20	111	1	0	2	4.6
Andy Dalton	1/1	8	0	0	0	1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Khalil Herbert	18	75	4.2	0	-1.7
Damien Williams	16	64	4.0	1	-0.7
Justin Fields	3	4	1.3	0	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Mooney	3	5	35	0	25%	3.2
Allen Robinson	4	5	32	0	25%	3.8
Cole Kmet	2	4	22	0	20%	-0.4
Damien Williams	2	3	20	0	15%	-0.7
Marquise Goodwin	1	2	8	0	10%	1.1
Jesper Horsted	1	1	2	1	5%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	5	5	0.0	1
Khalil Mack	7	1	1.0	0
Alec Ogletree	6	0	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	2	2	0.0	0
Kindle Vildor	3	1	0.0	0
Robert Quinn	3	0	0.0	0
Duke Shelley	2	1	0.0	0
Trevis Gipson	1	2	1.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	3	0	1.0	0
Danny Trevathan	1	2	0.0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	22/35	206	0	1	3	-9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	15	48	3.2	1	-3.0
Kenyan Drake	2	11	5.5	0	1.1
Derek Carr	3	10	3.3	0	-0.5
Nathan Peterman	2	2	1.0	0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Renfrow	6	8	56	23%	1.2
Henry Ruggs	3	3	51	9%	3.0
Darren Waller	4	8	45	23%	-0.4
Bryan Edwards	2	6	22	17%	-6.0
Josh Jacobs	4	5	19	14%	-1.1
Zay Jones	1	2	6	6%	-3.0
Jalen Richard	1	1	4	3%	-0.2
Willie Snead	1	1	3	3%	1.5
Kenyan Drake	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Denzel Perryman	10	3	0.0	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	5	2	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	3	3	0.0	0
Johnathan Abram	1	5	0.0	0
Amik Robertson	4	2	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	4	0.0	0
Nate Hobbs	3	2	0.0	1
Casey Hayward	3	0	0.0	1
Yannick Ngakoue	3	0	2.0	0
Roderic Teamer	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -5.5
Closing total: 46
CHI moneyline: +215
LV moneyline: -245

Raiders closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 29 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: CHI 7 days · LV 6 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Jon Gruden