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Cleveland Browns 42 at Los Angeles Chargers 47. Final.
Chargers -2.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 5
Los Angeles Chargers 47, Browns 42 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 10:53, 2nd and 3, on David Njoku — 28.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:53 · 2nd and 3
David Njoku
Browns
(10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Los Angeles Chargers 47–42. Biggest swing: Q4 10:53, Browns +28.7% win probability on one snap.
28.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike WilliamsChargersQ2 11:53(11:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett].
22.6pts
Mike WilliamsChargersQ4 11:30(11:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
23.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Chargers won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 12 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Chargers at 1 giveaway.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Browns at 3 touchdowns on 8 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Browns183 of 195 plays carry both curves
(10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −28.7 for ChargersExpected points −5.59 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 136
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:53LAC +29% win prob(10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:30LAC +23% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:53LAC +23% win prob(11:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett].
4th · 9:10LAC +19% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 81-M.Williams. PENALTY on CLE-38-A.Green, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play.
4th · 3:23LAC +18% win prob(3:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:48LAC +17% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to CLE 4 for 20 yards (38-A.Green). Penalty on CLE-26-G.Williams, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Ekeler's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 1:38 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:43Chase McLaughlin·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–0
4th3:23Austin Ekeler·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide left+642–41
4th1:38Austin Ekeler·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+642–47
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryChargers
Browns5–4Chargers
533Total yards496
7.8Yards per play7.2
50%Success rate45%
33%Third-down rate46%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
9Explosive plays10
23First downs25
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.30Browns: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.31Chargers: +0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Browns: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.33Chargers: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.30Browns: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.25Chargers: +0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 68 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Chargers’s 69 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Browns 8, Chargers 7.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 10.3% in week 2.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 4.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Chargers2.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.71× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 11.1 points below their season mean of 13.9% and 1.7 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%72 snaps
62Blake HanceG · Every snap100%72 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%72 snaps
13Odell BeckhamWR · Full-time81%58 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation72%52 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Heavy rotation71%51 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation68%49 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+29% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:53 · Browns · 2nd & 3 at CLE 29 · gained 71 · +5.59 EP · +29.3% win probability
181 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 85 yards from the LAC 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
42%
Yards
1028
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.3476%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR31+0.1755%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2165%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR22+0.5836%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2633%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.9760%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 29
Browns3Chargers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Chargers 12
Browns3Chargers6
Browns3Chargers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Browns 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Chargers 29
2nd quarter47 plays
Browns9Chargers7
Browns10Chargers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Browns10Chargers13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Chargers 28
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Chargers 17
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 22
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxTen defenders
Browns16Chargers13
Browns17Chargers13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Chargers 3
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Browns20Chargers13
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 13
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Browns26Chargers13
Browns27Chargers13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 48
Browns27Chargers19
Browns27Chargers21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Browns 9
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Browns 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 42
4th quarter73 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Browns27Chargers27
Browns27Chargers28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Browns 42
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Browns33Chargers28
Browns35Chargers28
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns35Chargers34
Browns35Chargers35
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Browns 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns41Chargers35
Browns42Chargers35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chargers 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Browns42Chargers41
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Browns 9
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 14 to the Browns 18
Browns42Chargers47
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Browns 3
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 46
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -2.5
Closing total
46.5
Browns moneyline
+117
Chargers moneyline
-129
Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 89 — over by 42.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Browns 7 days · Chargers 6 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Brandon Staley
4th · 2:02
LAC +16% win prob
(2:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at CLE 19 for 29 yards (38-A.Green). CLE-58-M.McDowell was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:48CLE +15% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to LAC 23 for 8 yards (26-G.Williams). FUMBLES (26-G.Williams), RECOVERED by CLE-58-M.McDowell at LAC 22. Penalty on LAC-74-S.Norton, Offensive Holding, declined.
