2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -2.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Los Angeles Chargers 47–42. Biggest swing: Q4 10:53, LAC +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:53CLE — LAC CLE ball · 2nd & 3LAC 57%

(10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:53LAC +29% win prob(10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:30LAC +23% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:53LAC +23% win prob(11:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett].
Q4 · 9:10LAC +19% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 81-M.Williams. PENALTY on CLE-38-A.Green, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Chargers
Offensive plays	68	69
Total yards	533 (edge)	496
Yards per play	7.8 (edge)	7.2
Expected points added / play	0.30	0.31 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	51%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30 (edge)	0.25
Third downs	4/12	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

26/43, 398 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

17.3 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

23/32, 305 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

21 att, 161 yds, 1 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

17 att, 66 yds, 2 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

8/16 for 165 yds, 2 TD

38% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

David NjokuTE

7/7 for 149 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	5	4	0:49	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 8	10	80	6:32	Turnover on downs
3	LAC	LAC 15	12	80	4:55	Touchdown
4	CLE	CLE 28	10	63	4:58	Touchdown
5	LAC	LAC 18	6	82	1:03	Touchdown
6	CLE	CLE 20	7	58	3:31	Turnover on downs
7	LAC	LAC 17	4	-5	1:18	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 47	12	53	6:00	Touchdown
9	LAC	LAC 15	2	7	0:16	Fumble
10	CLE	LAC 22	4	9	0:38	Turnover on downs
11	CLE	CLE 25	7	75	2:42	Touchdown
12	LAC	LAC 16	16	72	5:53	Touchdown
13	CLE	CLE 27	7	30	4:08	Punt
14	LAC	LAC 20	7	15	2:27	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 32	4	0	1:59	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 39	5	61	1:29	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 22	4	80	0:42	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 25	13	47	3:16	Touchdown
19	CLE	CLE 25	7	60	2:39	Touchdown
20	LAC	LAC 25	8	85	1:30	Touchdown
21	CLE	CLE 14	5	4	1:13	Punt
22	LAC	CLE 48	6	48	0:31	Touchdown
23	CLE	CLE 25	9	21	1:26	Turnover on downs
24	LAC	CLE 46	1	0	0:05	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	23/32	305	2	0	1	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	21	161	7.7	1	5.2
Kareem Hunt	12	61	5.1	2	4.7
Baker Mayfield	2	8	4.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
David Njoku	7	7	149	1	24%	10.2
Donovan Peoples-Jones	5	6	70	0	21%	4.3
Rashard Higgins	3	5	29	1	17%	1.9
Kareem Hunt	5	6	28	0	21%	-0.3
Odell Beckham	2	3	20	0	10%	-2.1
Nick Chubb	1	1	9	0	3%	-0.1
Anthony Schwartz	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Greedy Williams	7	3	0.0	1
Anthony Walker	2	4	0.0	0
A.J. Green	5	1	0.0	2
Sione Takitaki	1	4	0.0	0
Troy Hill	4	1	0.0	0
John Johnson	3	0	0.0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	2	1	0.0	0
Myles Garrett	2	0	1.0	1
Ronnie Harrison	0	2	0.0	1
Malik McDowell	1	0	1.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	26/43	398	4	0	2	17.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	17	66	3.9	2	3.9
Justin Herbert	4	29	7.3	1	2.7
Joshua Kelley	2	17	8.5	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Williams	8	16	165	2	38%	8.4
Keenan Allen	6	9	75	0	21%	5.4
Austin Ekeler	5	5	53	1	12%	0.4
Jalen Guyton	2	3	35	0	7%	1.8
Donald Parham	2	2	29	1	5%	2.7
Jared Cook	1	3	29	0	7%	-0.7
Josh Palmer	2	3	12	0	7%	-0.8
Stephen Anderson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Derwin James	9	7	1.0
Drue Tranquill	6	4	0.0
Nasir Adderley	6	1	0.0
Jerry Tillery	1	4	0.0
Joey Bosa	1	2	0.0
Michael Davis	3	0	0.0
Kyzir White	3	0	0.0
Asante Samuel	3	0	0.0
Linval Joseph	1	2	0.0
Ryan Smith	3	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -2.5
Closing total: 46.5
CLE moneyline: +117
LAC moneyline: -129

Chargers closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 89 — over by 42.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: CLE 7 days · LAC 6 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Brandon Staley