2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · Heinz Field

Denver Broncos

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

DEN -2 upsetO 40 ✓Broncos closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27–19. Biggest swing: Q1 4:08, DEN +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:08DEN — PIT PIT ball · 2nd & 13PIT 64%

(4:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 41 for -8 yards (59-M.Reed). FUMBLES (59-M.Reed) [59-M.Reed], touched at PIT 40, RECOVERED by DEN-45-A.Johnson at PIT 39. 45-A.Johnson to PIT 29 for 10 yards (53-K.Green)

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:08DEN +16% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 41 for -8 yards (59-M.Reed). FUMBLES (59-M.Reed) [59-M.Reed], touched at PIT 40, RECOVERED by DEN-45-A.Johnson at PIT 39. 45-A.Johnson to PIT 29 for 10 yards (53-K.Green).
Q2 · 8:42PIT +15% win prob(8:42) 33-J.Williams left tackle to PIT 2 for 49 yards (42-J.Pierre).
Q1 · 12:09PIT +15% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:10PIT +13% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 11-C.Claypool pushed ob at DEN 13 for 59 yards (31-J.Simmons, 58-V.Miller).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Steelers
Offensive plays	59	60
Total yards	374	392 (edge)
Yards per play	6.3	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.13	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	71%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	2/12	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

24/38, 288 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.3 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

15/25, 253 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

23 att, 122 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

8 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Chase ClaypoolWR

5/6 for 130 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

7/11 for 120 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 15	8	85	2:58	Touchdown
2	DEN	DEN 25	5	11	2:07	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 17	10	28	5:58	Fumble
4	DEN	PIT 29	4	8	2:14	Turnover on downs
5	PIT	PIT 25	10	45	4:01	Turnover on downs
6	DEN	DEN 22	5	8	0:58	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 9	4	8	1:40	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 40	7	54	4:17	Turnover on downs
9	PIT	PIT 25	8	63	3:35	Touchdown
10	DEN	DEN 25	7	26	0:41	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 10	4	19	1:31	End of half
12	DEN	DEN 15	10	38	5:03	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 14	15	81	7:16	Touchdown
14	DEN	DEN 25	16	85	7:26	Touchdown
15	PIT	PIT 18	5	14	2:35	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 28	6	72	1:54	Touchdown
17	PIT	PIT 25	8	49	3:17	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	12	72	2:18	Interception
19	PIT	PIT 20	1	0	0:11	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	24/38	288	2	1	2	7.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	8	61	7.6	0.8
Melvin Gordon	9	34	3.8	-1.0
Teddy Bridgewater	1	11	11.0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	7	11	120	1	31%	5.2
Tim Patrick	7	9	89	0	26%	6.4
Javonte Williams	3	3	25	0	9%	0.5
Kendall Hinton	2	3	25	1	9%	4.2
Noah Fant	3	4	20	0	11%	-0.3
Melvin Gordon	2	2	9	0	6%	0.5
Diontae Spencer	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4
David Moore	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Simmons	3	3	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	5	1	0.0	0
Alexander Johnson	3	3	0.0	1
Malik Reed	3	3	1.0	0
Justin Strnad	2	3	0.0	0
Shelby Harris	2	2	0.0	0
DeShawn Williams	2	1	0.0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	3	0	0.0	1
Bryce Callahan	2	0	0.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	15/25	253	2	0	1	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	23	122	5.3	1	2.6
Benny Snell	5	20	4.0	0	-0.9
JuJu Smith-Schuster	2	6	3.0	0	-0.7
Kalen Ballage	4	0	0.0	0	-2.1
Ben Roethlisberger	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chase Claypool	5	6	130	1	24%	10.7
Diontae Johnson	2	2	72	1	8%	7.1
Najee Harris	2	5	20	0	20%	-0.3
Zach Gentry	1	2	13	0	8%	0.2
Eric Ebron	2	2	10	0	8%	1.2
Pat Freiermuth	2	2	7	0	8%	1.9
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	2	1	0	8%	-2.2
Benny Snell	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9
JuJu Smith-Schuster	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9
Kalen Ballage	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7
Cody White	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	5	0	0
James Pierre	6	0	1	2
Terrell Edmunds	2	3	0	0
Joe Haden	3	2	0	1
Joe Schobert	3	2	0	1
Tre Norwood	2	0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	1	1	0	2
Arthur Maulet	1	1	0	1
T.J. Watt	2	0	0	0
Christian Kuntz	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -2
Closing total: 40
DEN moneyline: -124
PIT moneyline: +113

Broncos closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40; the game landed 46 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 71°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: DEN 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Mike Tomlin