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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · Heinz Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 5
It turned at Q1 4:08, 2nd and 13, on Ben Roethlisberger — 16.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:08 · 2nd and 13
Ben Roethlisberger
Broncos
(4:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 41 for -8 yards (59-M.Reed). FUMBLES (59-M.Reed) [59-M.Reed], touched at PIT 40, RECOVERED by DEN-45-A.Johnson at PIT 39. 45-A.Johnson to PIT 29 for 10 yards (53-K.Green).
Pittsburgh Steelers 27–19. Biggest swing: Q1 4:08, Broncos +16.4% win probability on one snap.
16.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Steelers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Broncos at 2 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.19 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(4:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 41 for -8 yards (59-M.Reed). FUMBLES (59-M.Reed) [59-M.Reed], touched at PIT 40, RECOVERED by DEN-45-A.Johnson at PIT 39. 45-A.Johnson to PIT 29 for 10 yards (53-K.Green)
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Diontae Johnson's 50-yard touchdown catch with 12:09 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Diontae Johnson50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+70–7
Courtland Sutton39-yd TD catch39-yard touchdown catchfrom Teddy Bridgewater · two-point no good+619–249 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categorySteelers
Steelers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 59 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Steelers’s 60 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Steelers 3.
Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's early-down pass rate, 31.3%, is past their previous low of 60.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.7 points.
PIT's pass rate over expected, −12.3 pts, is past their previous low of +2.0 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 17.1% in week 4 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos-7.4 ptsright on their number · −2.8 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 58 snaps
Steelers-12.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.2 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 85%
Tendencies room →Broncos61.9%inside their normal wobble · +9.7 vs their 52.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 42 early downs
Steelers31.3%off script — ran early · −26.0 vs their 57.3%, and they swing ±10.7 week to week (−2.43× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Broncos57.1%inside their normal wobble · +22.5 vs their 34.6%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 0% to 31%
Tendencies room →Broncos7.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Steelers11.9%inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
PIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 31.3%, 26.0 points below their season mean of 57.3% and 2.4 times their own 10.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
24/38, 288 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
7.3 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
15/25, 253 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.3 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
5/6 for 130 yds, 1 TD
24% of team targets · 10.7 expected points added
Receiving · DEN
7/11 for 120 yds, 1 TD
31% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Chase Claypool banked 12.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.0 | +5.5 | 90% | 88% | 31% | 45% | 7/11, 120 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Featured Receiver | 24.0 | +12.8 | 55% | 81% | 24% | 39% | 5/6, 130 yd, 1 TD |
| Najee HarrisRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.2 | −2.1 | 65% | 62% | 20% | 7% | 23 car, 122 yd, 1 TD · 2/5, 20 yd |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 18.6 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/38, 288 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 11 yd |
| Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | +7.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 253 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.9 | +1.7 | 95% | 95% | 26% | 21% | 7/9, 89 yd |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.2 | +12.1 | 92% | 96% | 8% | 20% | 2/2, 72 yd, 1 TD |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 11.6 | +3.3 | 42% | 38% | 9% | 2% | 8 car, 61 yd · 3/3, 25 yd |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.5 | +4.5 | 65% | 64% | 9% | 7% | 2/3, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | −0.9 | 60% | 60% | 6% | 3% | 9 car, 34 yd · 2/2, 9 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −0.5 | 97% | 95% | 11% | 6% | 3/4, 20 yd |
| Eric EbronTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | +0.1 | 38% | 58% | 8% | 4% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | 0.0 | 49% | 42% | 8% | 4% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| Zach GentryTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.5 | 34% | 19% | 8% | 0% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Benny SnellRB | 2.0 | −1.8 | 20% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 5 car, 20 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −1.7 | 52% | 50% | 8% | 12% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −2.5 | 38% | 35% | 4% | 6% | 2 car, 6 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| David MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Diontae SpencerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyrie ClevelandWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kalen BallageRB | 0.0 | −3.7 | 15% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 4 car, 0 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Derek WattRB | 0.0 | — | 14% | 4% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.1 | 25% | 15% | 4% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:09 · Steelers · 3rd & 7 at 50 · gained 50 · +5.25 EP · +16.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 86 yards from the PIT 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Steelers6Broncos0Steelers7Broncos3Steelers7Broncos3Steelers10Broncos6Steelers10Broncos6Steelers16Broncos6Steelers17Broncos6Steelers23Broncos6Steelers24Broncos12Steelers24Broncos13Steelers24Broncos19Steelers24Broncos19Steelers27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 24/38 | 288 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +7.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 8 | 61 | 7.6 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 11 | 120 | 1 | 31% | +5.2 |
| Tim Patrick | 7 | 9 | 89 | 0 | 26% | +6.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Johnson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Reed |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 15/25 | 253 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_05_DEN_PIT
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40; the game landed 46 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 9% | +0.5 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 9% | +4.2 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Diontae Spencer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| David Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryce Callahan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |
| 122 |
| 5.3 |
| 1 |
| +2.6 |
| Benny Snell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Kalen Ballage | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 6 | 130 | 1 | 24% | +10.7 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 2 | 72 | 1 | 8% | +7.1 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 20% | −0.3 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8% | +0.2 |
| Eric Ebron | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 8% | +1.9 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −2.2 |
| Benny Snell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Kalen Ballage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Cody White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Haden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Schobert | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Norwood | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Arthur Maulet | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kuntz | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
