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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:41 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Lions164 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:03) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Swing +35.2 for VikingsExpected points +0.99 for VikingsThe model had Lions 13 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03MIN +35% win prob(:03) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
4th · 0:37MIN +20% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-J.Goff pass to 18-K.Hodge is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:22MIN +17% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen to DET 36 for 19 yards (39-J.Jacobs).
4th · 0:27DET +13% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 45 for 6 yards (25-W.Harris).
4th · 2:00DET +13% win prob(2:00) 25-A.Mattison left end to MIN 21 for no gain (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 24-A.Oruwariye). FUMBLES (44-J.Reeves-Maybin), RECOVERED by DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin at MIN 20.
1st · 9:57MIN +9% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to DET 34 for 37 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Joseph's 54-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:38Austin Seibert·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–0
1st6:34Greg Joseph·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+33–3
2nd9:54Greg Joseph·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+33–6
4th0:03Greg Joseph·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+317–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryVikings
Lions1–5Vikings
290Total yards384
4.5Yards per play6.1
36%Success rate38%
27%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
19First downs17
4Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.20Lions: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.06Vikings: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Lions: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.14Vikings: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Lions: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.33Vikings: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Vikings’s 63 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Lions 1, Vikings 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, sat 58.1 points below their season number of 58.1% — they took the kick by 2.0 times their own 29.0-point weekly swing.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 4.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.0 points.
DET's sack or hit rate turned over: 21.1% in week 4 against 5.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Vikings17.5%
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+0.69× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 58.1 points below their season mean of 58.1% and 2.0 times their own 29.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Greg Joseph+49% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q4 0:03 · Vikings · 2nd & 10 at DET 36 · gained nothing · +0.99 EP · +48.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 88 yards from the MIN 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
35%
Yards
674
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1971%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23-0.1135%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.1463%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.5045%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR10+0.61100%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0143%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Lions3Vikings0
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 21
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Lions3Vikings3
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Lions 20
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 44
2nd quarter42 plays
Lions3Vikings6
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Lions 20
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 45
Lions3Vikings12
Lions3Vikings13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Lions 15
Lions6Vikings13
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 22
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Vikings 28
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 37 to the Vikings 46
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 13 to the Lions 28
Intercepted7 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Lions 23
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter62 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 28
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 34
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Vikings 42
Lions6Vikings16
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Lions 37
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Vikings 45
No good6 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Lions 31
Lions9Vikings16
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Vikings 22
Offense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 21
Lions15Vikings16
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Lions17Vikings16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 7
Lions17Vikings19
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Lions 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -10
Closing total
49.5
Lions moneyline
+346
Vikings moneyline
-418
Vikings closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 36 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Lions 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Mike Zimmer
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 10:08
DET +8% win prob
(10:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 18-K.Hodge INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks at MIN 15. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 37 for 22 yards (73-J.Jackson).
1st · 11:59MIN +8% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-Q.Cephus pushed ob at MIN 22 for 13 yards (22-H.Smith).
