2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Detroit Lions

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -10 no coverU 49.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Minnesota Vikings 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, MIN +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03DET — MIN MIN ball · 2nd & 10MIN 65%

(:03) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03MIN +35% win prob(:03) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q4 · 0:37MIN +20% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 16-J.Goff pass to 18-K.Hodge is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
Q4 · 0:22MIN +17% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen to DET 36 for 19 yards (39-J.Jacobs).
Q4 · 0:27DET +13% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 45 for 6 yards (25-W.Harris).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Vikings
Offensive plays	64	63
Total yards	290	384 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.20	-0.06 (edge)
Success rate	36%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.33
Third downs	3/11	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

25/34, 275 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.7 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

21/35, 203 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.1 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

25 att, 113 yds, 0 TD

-8.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

13 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/8 for 124 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 11.8 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

7/8 for 65 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	11	49	4:26	Turnover on downs
2	MIN	MIN 25	11	55	4:04	Turnover on downs
3	DET	DET 25	11	35	5:36	Fumble
4	MIN	MIN 35	11	55	6:04	Turnover on downs
5	DET	DET 25	7	20	3:14	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 12	9	73	4:16	Touchdown
7	DET	DET 25	10	41	1:39	Turnover on downs
8	MIN	MIN 19	3	6	0:41	End of half
9	MIN	MIN 25	5	2	2:14	Punt
10	DET	DET 37	5	35	2:48	Interception
11	MIN	MIN 37	4	11	2:41	Punt
12	DET	DET 13	7	15	2:48	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 5	7	72	3:17	Interception
14	DET	DET 21	4	7	2:06	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 27	4	6	2:05	Punt
16	DET	DET 21	5	23	2:22	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 20	10	53	5:11	Turnover on downs
18	DET	DET 25	6	4	0:49	Turnover on downs
19	MIN	DET 34	4	3	0:22	Turnover on downs
20	DET	DET 39	6	39	0:47	Turnover on downs
21	MIN	MIN 18	4	2	0:34	Fumble
22	DET	MIN 20	4	22	1:19	Touchdown
23	MIN	MIN 18	6	46	0:37	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 73 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	21/35	203	0	1	4	-14.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jamaal Williams	13	57	4.4	0	0.6
D'Andre Swift	11	51	4.6	1	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	7	8	65	26%	2.8
D'Andre Swift	6	6	53	19%	3.0
Quintez Cephus	3	3	38	10%	1.9
T.J. Hockenson	2	3	22	10%	1.5
KhaDarel Hodge	1	5	17	16%	-6.1
Jamaal Williams	2	2	8	6%	-0.4
Trinity Benson	0	2	0	6%	-1.7
Kalif Raymond	0	2	0	6%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Amani Oruwariye	6	3	0	0
Tracy Walker III	6	2	0	1
A.J. Parker	6	1	0	0
Derrick Barnes	4	2	0	0
Will Harris	2	3	0	0
Alex Anzalone	1	3	1	1
Levi Onwuzurike	3	1	0	0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	2	2	0	0
Josh Woods	2	1	0	0
Jerry Jacobs	3	0	0	1

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	25/34	275	1	1	2	5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alexander Mattison	25	113	4.5	-8.4
Kirk Cousins	1	4	4.0	0.0
Ameer Abdullah	1	2	2.0	-0.3
C.J. Ham	1	1	1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	7	8	124	0	26%	11.8
Alexander Mattison	7	7	40	1	23%	1.1
Adam Thielen	2	3	40	0	10%	0.4
Tyler Conklin	2	3	25	0	10%	1.1
Dede Westbrook	3	4	18	0	13%	-0.4
C.J. Ham	1	1	14	0	3%	0.8
K.J. Osborn	3	4	14	0	13%	-4.8
Ben Ellefson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Harrison Smith	5	4	0.0	0	1
Xavier Woods	4	4	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	5	3	0.0	1	1
Nick Vigil	2	3	0.0	0	0
Everson Griffen	2	2	2.0	0	0
Bashaud Breeland	3	1	0.0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	2	2	1.0	0	0
Armon Watts	1	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	1	2	1.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	1	2	0.0	0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -10
Closing total: 49.5
DET moneyline: +346
MIN moneyline: -418

Vikings closed -10, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 36 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: DET 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.