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live · 12s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 3 h ago · 1 live · 1 to play · 14 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 5
It turned at OT 9:55, 1st and 10, on De'Vondre Campbell — 43.9 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 9:55, Packers +43.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 9:55 · 1st and 10
De'Vondre Campbell
Packers
(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at CIN 30. 59-D.Campbell to CIN 17 for 13 yards (9-J.Burrow).
43.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Bengals at 6 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Packers at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Bengals at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at CIN 30. 59-D.Campbell to CIN 17 for 13 yards (9-J.Burrow).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mason Crosby's 49-yard field goal with 2:00 left in overtime put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
A.J. Dillon12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick no good, hit left upright+66–7
Mason Crosby49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap H.BradleyLead never changed again+325–229 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryBengals
Packers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 62 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Bengals’s 66 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Bengals 3.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Packers2.5 ptsright on their number · −1.2 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 62 snaps
Bengals1.0 ptsright on their number · +1.4 vs their -0.4 pts, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 82%
Tendencies room →Packers56.9%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 51 early downs
Bengals63.3%inside their normal wobble · +8.9 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
Bengals33.3%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 31.5%, and they swing ±20.3 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 26%
Tendencies room →Packers16.3%inside their normal wobble · +3.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bengals12.5%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CIN's early-down pass rate, 63.3% against a season mean of 54.3% — and CIN swings 11.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
27/39, 344 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
9.1 expected points added · +15.1% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
26/38, 281 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
2.4 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected
Receiving · CIN
6/10 for 159 yds, 1 TD
27% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ja'Marr Chase banked 10.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 37.6 | +3.9 | 91% | 90% | 46% | 70% | 11/16, 206 yd, 1 TD |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.9 | +10.0 | 91% | 93% | 27% | 60% | 6/10, 159 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 19.8 | −0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 344 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 18.3 | +0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 281 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 3 car, 11 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Committee Back | 18.3 | +3.0 | 61% | 65% | 14% | 2% | 11 car, 59 yd · 4/5, 24 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 17.9 | +5.7 | 33% | 29% | 11% | 0% | 8 car, 30 yd · 4/4, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.9 | +0.5 | 69% | 73% | 14% | 2% | 14 car, 103 yd · 4/5, 6 yd |
| Joe MixonRB | 10.5 | +3.8 | 28% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 33 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Featured Receiver | 10.2 | −1.3 | 70% | 81% | 19% | 15% | 5/7, 32 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −1.4 | 82% | 86% | 14% | 5% | 4/5, 24 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | +2.2 | 45% | 34% | 6% | 3% | 2/2, 34 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −1.9 | 55% | 61% | 9% | 9% | 2/3, 30 yd |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.6 | 84% | 81% | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 16 yd |
| Chris EvansRB | 3.5 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −3.0 | 31% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2/4, 9 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.5 | 86% | 90% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.9 | 59% | 63% | 6% | 14% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Kylin HillRB | 1.5 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Auden TateWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Stanley MorganWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Malik TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at CIN 30. 59-D.Campbell to CIN 17 for 13 yards (9-J.Burrow).
OT 9:55 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 25 · gained nothing · -5.82 EP · −43.9% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 179 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 81 yards from the GB 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Bengals6Packers0Bengals7Packers6Bengals7Packers9Bengals7Packers15Bengals7Packers16Bengals7Packers16Bengals13Packers16Bengals14Packers19Bengals14Packers22Bengals14Packers22Bengals20Packers22Bengals22Packers25Bengals22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/39 | 344 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 103 | 7.4 | 0 | +1.4 |
| A.J. Dillon | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 11 | 16 | 206 | 1 | 46% | +7.7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 4 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 11% | +4.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Amos | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Darnell Savage | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 26/38 | 281 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_05_GB_CIN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 50; the game landed 47 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 6% | +2.5 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14% | −3.5 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Kylin Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin King | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Preston Smith | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
| 59 |
| 5.4 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| Joe Mixon | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 | −2.3 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 10 | 159 | 1 | 27% | +10.9 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 19% | +0.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 14% | +4.4 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 14% | −3.9 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Chris Evans | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +0.7 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.2 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Auden Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessie Bates | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vonn Bell | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reader | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chidobe Awuzie | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
