2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

GB -2 ✓U 50 ✓Packers closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.

Green Bay Packers 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 9:55, GB +44% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 9:55GB — CIN CIN ball · 1st & 10CIN 53%

(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at CIN 30. 59-D.Campbell to CIN 17 for 13 yards (9-J.Burrow).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 9:55GB +44% win prob(9:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 59-D.Campbell at CIN 30. 59-D.Campbell to CIN 17 for 13 yards (9-J.Burrow).
OT · 8:12GB +42% win prob(8:12) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
OT · 2:33CIN +37% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to CIN 32 for 15 yards (30-J.Bates) [91-T.Hendrickson]. CIN-30-J.Bates was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 0:26GB +35% win prob(:26) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Bengals
Offensive plays	62	66
Total yards	466 (edge)	369
Yards per play	7.5 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	0.01
Success rate	45%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.05
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

27/39, 344 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

9.1 expected points added · +15.1% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

26/38, 281 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

2.4 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

14 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Samaje PerineRB

11 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

11/16 for 206 yds, 1 TD

46% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

6/10 for 159 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	8	33	3:02	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 8	4	9	2:19	Punt
3	GB	GB 38	2	15	0:51	Interception
4	CIN	GB 42	4	1	1:39	Punt
5	GB	GB 20	4	0	0:56	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 49	11	51	4:58	Touchdown
7	GB	GB 25	9	75	4:26	Touchdown
8	CIN	CIN 25	5	-1	2:05	Punt
9	GB	GB 38	6	36	2:20	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	CIN 40	5	7	1:29	Punt
11	GB	GB 19	10	86	4:48	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 25	4	75	0:31	Touchdown
13	GB	GB 25	2	-6	0:36	End of half
14	CIN	CIN 23	4	32	1:37	Interception
15	GB	GB 18	12	56	7:38	Turnover on downs
16	CIN	CIN 25	12	45	5:37	Punt
17	GB	GB 15	7	70	3:48	Turnover on downs
18	CIN	CIN 25	15	77	7:53	Touchdown
19	GB	GB 25	6	57	1:15	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 26	9	35	1:51	Turnover on downs
21	GB	GB 47	3	20	0:21	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:13	Interception
23	GB	CIN 17	3	-5	1:39	Turnover on downs
24	CIN	CIN 30	7	38	3:54	Turnover on downs
25	GB	GB 39	6	29	2:19	Turnover on downs

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	27/39	344	2	1	2	9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	14	103	7.4	0	1.4
A.J. Dillon	8	30	3.8	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	11	16	206	1	46%	7.7
A.J. Dillon	4	4	49	1	11%	4.8
Marcedes Lewis	2	2	34	0	6%	2.5
Randall Cobb	2	3	30	0	9%	0.3
Robert Tonyan	1	2	8	0	6%	0.3
Aaron Jones	4	5	6	0	14%	-3.5
Allen Lazard	2	2	6	0	6%	-0.6
Kylin Hill	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Adrian Amos	6	3	0.0	1	1
De'Vondre Campbell	4	4	0.0	1	1
Darnell Savage	5	1	0.0	0	0
Rashan Gary	1	4	0.0	0	0
Krys Barnes	2	3	1.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	2	3	0.0	0	0
Kevin King	4	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Stokes	3	1	0.0	0	1
Preston Smith	1	3	1.0	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	2	0	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	26/38	281	2	2	3	2.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Samaje Perine	11	59	5.4	0	0.5
Joe Mixon	10	33	3.3	1	-2.3
Joe Burrow	3	11	3.7	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	6	10	159	1	27%	10.9
Tee Higgins	5	7	32	0	19%	0.9
Samaje Perine	4	5	24	1	14%	4.4
Tyler Boyd	4	5	24	0	14%	-3.9
C.J. Uzomah	2	2	16	0	5%	-0.3
Chris Evans	2	2	15	0	5%	0.7
Drew Sample	2	4	9	0	11%	-1.2
Joe Mixon	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4
Auden Tate	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jessie Bates	8	1	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	7	1	0.0	0	0
Logan Wilson	4	3	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reader	2	3	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	4	1	0.0	1	2
Trey Hendrickson	2	2	2.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	3	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	3	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	3	1	0.0	0	1
Akeem Davis-Gaither	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -2
Closing total: 50
GB moneyline: -123
CIN moneyline: +111

Packers closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 50; the game landed 47 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: GB 7 days · CIN 10 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Zac Taylor