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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 11, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis25
BY 6final margin
RavensBaltimore31
Indianapolis Colts 25 at Baltimore Ravens 31. Final.
Ravens -7.5 no coverO 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 5
Baltimore Ravens 31, Colts 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 5:29, 2nd and 5, on Marquise Brown — 36.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 5:29 · 2nd and 5
Marquise Brown
Ravens
(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 31–25. Biggest swing: OT 5:29, Ravens +36.9% win probability on one snap.
36.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jonathan TaylorColtsQ1 13:11(13:11) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
26.8pts
Lamar JacksonColtsQ3 6:49(6:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to IND 2 for -1 yards (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 3. 53-D.Leonard to IND 25 for 22 yards. Lateral to 34-I.Rodgers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the backward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to IND 2 for -1 yards (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 3. 53-D.Leonard to IND 25 for 22 yards. Lateral to 34-I.Rodgers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on IND-53-D.Leonard, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at IND 24.
20.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.14 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.80 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Ravens at 7 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 62% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Colts171 of 184 plays carry both curves
(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +36.9 for RavensExpected points +2.01 for RavensModel and market agree here.play 183
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 5:29BAL +37% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:11BAL +27% win prob(13:11) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:49IND +20% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to IND 2 for -1 yards (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 3. 53-D.Leonard to IND 25 for 22 yards. Lateral to 34-I.Rodgers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the backward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to IND 2 for -1 yards (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 3. 53-D.Leonard to IND 25 for 22 yards. Lateral to 34-I.Rodgers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on IND-53-D.Leonard, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at IND 24.
4th · 0:39BAL +18% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 0:04IND +17% win prob(:04) 3-R.Blankenship 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marquise Brown's 5-yard touchdown catch with 5:29 left in overtime put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Ravens ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.80 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Colts: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.29Ravens: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.42Colts: +0.42 expected points added per play
+0.67Ravens: +0.67 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Colts: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.80Ravens: −0.80 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 64 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Ravens’s 73 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Ravens 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, +7.6 pts, is past their previous high of +5.8 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate, 74.2%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
62 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Ravens17.9%
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.6 pts, 8.7 points above their season mean of -1.2 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%69 snaps
69Matt PryorT · Every snap100%69 snaps
79Eric FisherT · Every snap100%69 snaps
2Carson WentzQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
62Chris ReedG · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap99%68 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time88%61 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Full-time86%59 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation72%50 snaps
1Parris CampbellWR · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation52%36 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational45%31 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational38%26 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Rotational33%23 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Situational14%10 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Situational12%8 snaps
63Danny PinterG · Situational3%2 snaps
17Mike StrachanWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Rock Ya-SinCBKwity PayeDEIsaac RochellDEKhalil DavisDTJacob EasonQBJordan WilkinsRBBraden SmithT
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
L.Jackson pass+37% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT 5:29 · Ravens · 2nd & goal at IND 5 · gained 5 · +2.01 EP · +36.9% win probability
169 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 88 yards from the BAL 9 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.19
Success rate
49%
Yards
1040
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.3575%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.4265%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3733%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.0233%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Colts6Ravens0
Colts7Ravens0
Touchdown5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Ravens 31
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Ravens 14
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 45
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Ravens 43
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Ravens 45
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 23
Colts7Ravens3
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Colts 5
Colts10Ravens3
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Ravens 19
3rd quarter37 plays
Colts16Ravens3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Ravens 42
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost15 plays, from the Ravens 9 to the Colts 1
Colts22Ravens3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Ravens 4
Colts22Ravens9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Colts 43
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 24
4th quarter52 plays
Colts25Ravens9
Field goal7 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Ravens 25
Colts25Ravens15
Colts25Ravens17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Colts 5
No good14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Ravens 15
Colts25Ravens23
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Colts25Ravens25
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Colts 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Ravens 29
Overtime13 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Colts25Ravens31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Colts 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7.5
Closing total
46.5
Colts moneyline
+301
Ravens moneyline
-356
Ravens closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 56 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 67°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Colts 8 days · Ravens 8 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs John Harbaugh
4th · 0:18
BAL +16% win prob
(:18) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal to IND 40 for 2 yards (22-J.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-25-T.Young, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 40.
1st · 3:47IND +13% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at BAL 20 for -6 yards (99-O.Oweh). FUMBLES (99-O.Oweh) [99-O.Oweh], RECOVERED by BAL-98-B.Williams at BAL 19.
4th · 0:13BAL +10% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 14-Z.Pascal to BAL 30 for 15 yards (44-M.Humphrey).
