For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2021 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 11, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

25

Baltimore RavensWinner

31

BAL -7.5 no coverO 46.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 31–25. Biggest swing: OT 5:29, BAL +37% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3End Q4BAL ↑IND ↓
OT · 5:29IND — BAL BAL ball · 2nd & 5BAL 63%

(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. OT · 5:29BAL +37% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 13:11BAL +27% win prob(13:11) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-J.Taylor for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 6:49IND +20% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to IND 2 for -1 yards (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 3. 53-D.Leonard to IND 25 for 22 yards. Lateral to 34-I.Rodgers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the backward pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to IND 2 for -1 yards (32-J.Blackmon). FUMBLES (32-J.Blackmon), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 3. 53-D.Leonard to IND 25 for 22 yards. Lateral to 34-I.Rodgers for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on IND-53-D.Leonard, Illegal Forward Pass, 5 yards, enforced at IND 24.
  4. Q4 · 0:39BAL +18% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsRavens
Offensive plays6473
Total yards513527 (edge)
Yards per play8.0 (edge)7.2
Expected points added / play0.31 (edge)0.29
Success rate48%62% (edge)
Dropback rate61%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.420.67 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)-0.80
Third downs5/10 (edge)3/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)12 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps2732 (edge)
Sacks taken22
Turnovers11

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

37/43, 442 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

32.5 expected points added · +17.8% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

25/35, 402 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-7.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

15 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

11/13 for 147 yds, 2 TD

30% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

9/10 for 125 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 23551:38Punt
2INDIND 294760:23Touchdown
3BALBAL 26551:40Punt
4INDIND 1611757:41Fumble
5BALBAL 196263:31Punt
6INDIND 2111294:58Punt
7BALBAL 127323:58Punt
8INDIND 18451:46Punt
9BALBAL 159802:49Turnover on downs
10INDIND 259371:36End of half
11INDIND 274731:01Touchdown
12BALBAL 914797:17Defensive touchdown
13INDIND 197813:36Touchdown
14BALBAL 257752:10Touchdown
15INDIND 2010553:56Turnover on downs
16BALBAL 228802:22Touchdown
17INDIND 2510415:09Turnover on downs
18BALBAL 2512773:50Touchdown
19INDIND 257410:39Turnover on downs
20BALBAL 3211684:36Touchdown

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 81 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Carson Wentz25/3540220216.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor15533.510.0
Marlon Mack5479.402.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines4184.500.8
Carson Wentz252.50-0.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jonathan Taylor34116112%9.2
Michael Pittman6789121%3.8
Parris Campbell4656018%3.9
Mo Alie-Cox3450012%4.3
Zach Pascal3548015%3.0
Kylen Granson221906%1.1
Ashton Dulin221306%0.3
Marlon Mack12706%-0.4
Jack Doyle11403%-0.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines01003%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Shaquille Leonard570.000
Bobby Okereke720.000
Kenny Moore520.000
Isaiah Rodgers600.000
Julian Blackmon420.000
Al-Quadin Muhammad420.500
Xavier Rhodes410.001
Khari Willis130.000
DeForest Buckner220.000
Tyquan Lewis131.500

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson37/4344240232.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson14624.40-7.3
Latavius Murray6172.80-1.2
Ty'Son Williams461.50-2.3
Devonta Freeman111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mark Andrews1113147230%13.5
Marquise Brown910125223%10.2
Devin Duvernay444509%4.6
Sammy Watkins233507%0.6
Devonta Freeman343409%1.8
Ty'Son Williams221505%1.4
James Proche221505%1.7
Latavius Murray231307%0.1
Josh Oliver221305%0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Brandon Stephens550.000
Anthony Averett520.000
Patrick Queen420.000
Tyus Bowser230.000
Tavon Young401.001
Marlon Humphrey310.001
Pernell McPhee220.000
Malik Harrison120.000
Odafe Oweh301.000
Calais Campbell210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Closing total
46.5
IND moneyline
+301
BAL moneyline
-356

Ravens closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 56 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
69°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
IND 8 days · BAL 8 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs John Harbaugh