2021 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 7, 2021 · Lumen Field

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

LA -2.5 ✓U 53.5 ✓Rams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Los Angeles Rams 26–17. Biggest swing: Q3 9:27, SEA +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 9:27LA — SEA LA ball · 3rd & 10SEA 60%

(9:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson ran ob at SEA 12 for 68 yards (23-S.Jones) [91-L.Collier].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 9:27SEA +21% win prob(9:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson ran ob at SEA 12 for 68 yards (23-S.Jones) [91-L.Collier].
Q2 · 14:57LA +14% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA -9. Touchback.
Q2 · 0:07LA +11% win prob(:07) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q2 · 9:10SEA +10% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Seahawks
Offensive plays	66	60
Total yards	477 (edge)	354
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	52% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	58%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00 (edge)	-0.36
Third downs	2/10	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

25/37, 365 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

14.1 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

11/16, 152 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.2 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

17 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Alex CollinsRB

15 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-6.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

12/14 for 150 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

5/5 for 98 yds, 2 TD

16% of team targets · 10.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 16	7	20	2:44	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 25	5	32	1:42	Punt
3	LA	LA 12	7	24	3:23	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 19	8	46	4:12	Turnover on downs
5	LA	LA 30	8	62	3:12	Interception
6	SEA	SEA 20	4	13	1:54	Interception
7	LA	LA 48	4	7	2:12	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 17	4	36	1:37	Touchdown
9	LA	LA 24	15	63	7:56	Turnover on downs
10	SEA	SEA 28	6	50	1:06	Turnover on downs
11	LA	LA 25	1	0	0:02	End of half
12	SEA	SEA 26	9	19	3:57	Punt
13	LA	LA 4	9	96	3:07	Touchdown
14	SEA	SEA 40	5	1	1:05	Punt
15	LA	LA 18	6	82	2:05	Touchdown
16	SEA	SEA 25	5	-4	2:04	Punt
17	LA	LA 11	6	33	3:00	Punt
18	SEA	SEA 2	11	85	5:26	Touchdown
19	LA	LA 27	8	73	3:08	Touchdown
20	SEA	SEA 40	12	51	3:23	Turnover on downs
21	LA	LA 22	6	14	0:36	Punt
22	SEA	SEA 16	1	0	0:07	Interception
23	LA	SEA 32	4	3	1:38	Turnover on downs
24	SEA	SEA 25	4	25	0:24	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 96 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	25/37	365	1	1	1	14.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrell Henderson	17	82	4.8	1	-0.2
Sony Michel	11	37	3.4	1	0.3
Matthew Stafford	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	12	14	150	0	40%	10.1
Cooper Kupp	7	10	92	0	29%	4.5
DeSean Jackson	1	3	68	0	9%	3.7
Darrell Henderson	1	1	17	0	3%	1.6
Van Jefferson	1	4	16	0	11%	-0.4
Tyler Higbee	2	2	14	1	6%	1.5
Sony Michel	1	1	8	0	3%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Sebastian Joseph	3	5	0.0	0	0
Jordan Fuller	3	3	0.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	4	2	1.0	0	1
Nick Scott	3	2	0.0	1	1
A'Shawn Robinson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Darious Williams	3	1	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	2	0.0	0	0
Troy Reeder	1	2	0.0	1	1
Terrell Lewis	1	2	1.0	0	0
Robert Rochell	2	0	0.0	0	1

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	11/16	152	1	1	2	-2.2
Geno Smith	10/17	131	1	1	0	4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alex Collins	15	47	3.1	-6.1
Geno Smith	3	23	7.7	0.2
Russell Wilson	2	10	5.0	0.9
DeeJay Dallas	4	7	1.8	-1.5
Travis Homer	1	5	5.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	5	5	98	2	16%	10.6
Tyler Lockett	5	10	57	0	31%	-5.2
DeeJay Dallas	2	2	32	0	6%	1.2
Will Dissly	2	4	29	0	13%	1.2
Alex Collins	2	3	25	0	9%	0.0
Penny Hart	2	2	19	0	6%	1.1
Travis Homer	1	1	13	0	3%	-0.1
Freddie Swain	1	3	9	0	9%	-0.9
Colby Parkinson	1	2	1	0	6%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordyn Brooks	3	6	0	0
D.J. Reed	6	0	0	1
Quandre Diggs	5	0	1	1
Sidney Jones	3	2	0	0
Rasheem Green	4	1	0	0
Bobby Wagner	1	3	0	0
Jamal Adams	3	1	0	0
Carlos Dunlap	2	1	0	1
Jon Rhattigan	2	0	0	0
Kerry Hyder	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -2.5
Closing total: 53.5
LA moneyline: -135
SEA moneyline: +122

Rams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 43 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: LA 4 days · SEA 4 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.