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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Rams165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(9:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson ran ob at SEA 12 for 68 yards (23-S.Jones) [91-L.Collier].
Swing −21.3 for SeahawksExpected points −5.89 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 12 points higher than the market did.play 96
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:27SEA +21% win prob(9:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson ran ob at SEA 12 for 68 yards (23-S.Jones) [91-L.Collier].
2nd · 14:57LA +14% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 6-Q.Diggs at SEA -9. Touchback.
2nd · 0:07LA +11% win prob(:07) 5-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
2nd · 9:10SEA +10% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:23SEA +9% win prob(9:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:07SEA +9% win prob(10:07) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on LA-31-R.Rochell, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at SEA 31 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Darrell Henderson's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 8:00 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd9:10DK Metcalf·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+70–7
2nd1:12Matt Gay·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+33–7
3rd8:00Darrell Henderson·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right uprightLead never changed again+69–7
3rd4:52Tyler Higbee·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+716–7
4th2:49Jason Myers·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+323–17
4th0:30Matt Gay·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+326–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams8–1Seahawks
477Total yards354
7.2Yards per play5.9
52%Success rate42%
20%Third-down rate40%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays8
24First downs18
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Rams: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Rams: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.08Seahawks: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Rams: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.36Seahawks: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 66 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 60 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Seahawks 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Seahawks7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 67.3%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 55.2% and 1.0 times their own 11.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
55Brian AllenC · Every snap100%67 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%67 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%67 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%67 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Every snap99%66 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time88%59 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time84%56 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Heavy rotation66%44 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Heavy rotation58%39 snaps
82Johnny MundtTE · Rotational42%28 snaps
25Sony MichelRB · Rotational34%23 snaps
1DeSean JacksonWR · Rotational30%20 snaps
Inactive · 5
Chris GarrettLBBobby BrownNTBryce PerkinsQBAlaric JacksonTBrycen HopkinsTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Bobby EvansGJohn WolfordQB
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
61Kyle FullerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%65 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%65 snaps
72Brandon ShellT · Every snap100%65 snaps
76Duane BrownT · Every snap100%65 snaps
89Will DisslyTE · Full-time88%57 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Full-time86%56 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Heavy rotation74%48 snaps
41Alex CollinsRB · Heavy rotation71%46 snaps
18Freddie SwainWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
84Colby ParkinsonTE · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Rotational38%25 snaps
31DeeJay DallasRB · Situational22%14 snaps
19Penny HartWR · Situational18%12 snaps
25Travis HomerRB · Situational12%8 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Situational8%5 snaps
85Tyler MabryTE · Situational5%3 snaps
44Nick BelloreLB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
John ReidCBRobert NkemdicheDTChris CarsonRBJake CurhanTStone ForsytheT
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson ran ob at SEA 12 for 68 yards (23-S.Jones) [91-L.Collier].
Q3 9:27 · Rams · 3rd & 10 at LA 20 · gained 68 · +5.89 EP · +22.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 98 yards from the SEA 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
45%
Yards
830
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.3568%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1172%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1748%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2025%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 36
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 43
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 39
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Rams 29
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Seahawks 33
2nd quarter45 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.6 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 33
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Seahawks 47
Rams0Seahawks6
Rams0Seahawks7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Rams 19
Rams3Seahawks7
Field goal16 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Seahawks 12
No good11 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Rams 15
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Rams 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Rams9Seahawks7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 4 to the Seahawks 5
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Seahawks 41
Rams15Seahawks7
Rams16Seahawks7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Seahawks 13
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 45
4th quarter58 plays
Punt2 plays
Rams16Seahawks13
Rams16Seahawks14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 2 to the Rams 23
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Rams22Seahawks14
Rams23Seahawks14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Seahawks 2
Rams23Seahawks17
Field goal14 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Rams 14
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 36
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Rams26Seahawks17
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -2.5
Closing total
53.5
Rams moneyline
-135
Seahawks moneyline
+122
Rams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 43 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Rams 4 days · Seahawks 4 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 13:01
LA +8% win prob
(13:01) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 51-T.Reeder (5-J.Ramsey) at LA 48. 51-T.Reeder to LA 48 for no gain (16-T.Lockett).
4th · 2:09LA +8% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right intended for 16-T.Lockett INTERCEPTED by 33-N.Scott at SEA 35. 33-N.Scott ran ob at SEA 32 for 3 yards (25-T.Homer).
