2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -11 ✓O 48 ✓Buccaneers closed -11 and covered, winning by 28.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:12, TB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:12MIA — TB TB ball · 3rd & 2TB 82%

(11:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-A.Brown for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-S.Eguavoen].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:12TB +8% win prob(11:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-A.Brown for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-S.Eguavoen].
Q1 · 3:21TB +8% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass deep left to 37-M.Gaskin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:04TB +7% win prob(10:04) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at MIA 44 for 26 yards (24-By.Jones).
Q1 · 13:18TB +7% win prob(13:18) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short right to 18-P.Williams pushed ob at TB 9 for 34 yards (32-M.Edwards).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	51	67
Total yards	301	559 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	8.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.52 (edge)
Success rate	45%	61% (edge)
Dropback rate	82%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.72 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.09 (edge)
Third downs	2/7	8/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	31 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.52 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

30/41, 411 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

28.3 expected points added · +13.5% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Jacoby BrissettQB

27/39, 275 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.1 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

12 att, 67 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

5 att, 25 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Antonio BrownWR

7/8 for 124 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 12.9 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/8 for 113 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	9	65	3:43	Turnover on downs
2	TB	TB 20	10	80	4:13	Touchdown
3	MIA	MIA 25	10	63	3:48	Touchdown
4	TB	TB 25	11	51	4:10	Turnover on downs
5	MIA	MIA 25	5	6	1:31	Punt
6	TB	TB 30	4	70	1:34	Touchdown
7	MIA	MIA 25	8	22	2:54	Punt
8	TB	TB 23	14	65	6:19	Touchdown
9	MIA	MIA 25	6	40	1:14	Fumble
10	TB	TB 34	5	24	0:34	Turnover on downs
11	TB	TB 25	6	21	2:12	Punt
12	MIA	MIA 13	12	71	5:52	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	15	75	6:59	Touchdown
14	MIA	MIA 25	5	0	0:58	Punt
15	TB	TB 39	5	61	2:10	Touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 25	4	16	1:02	Interception
17	TB	MIA 41	4	50	1:50	Touchdown
18	MIA	MIA 25	7	18	1:51	Punt
19	TB	TB 13	10	62	7:06	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	27/39	275	2	1	3	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Myles Gaskin	5	25	5.0	0.1
Preston Williams	1	7	7.0	0.4
Salvon Ahmed	2	5	2.5	-1.0
Jaylen Waddle	1	2	2.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Myles Gaskin	10	10	74	2	26%	4.8
Preston Williams	3	5	60	0	13%	1.6
Mike Gesicki	4	7	43	0	18%	1.8
Jaylen Waddle	2	6	31	0	15%	-6.0
Durham Smythe	2	3	23	0	8%	1.1
Salvon Ahmed	2	3	16	0	8%	0.2
Adam Shaheen	2	2	15	0	5%	0.8
Mack Hollins	1	2	10	0	5%	0.6
Isaiah Ford	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jerome Baker	6	1	1.0	0
Jevon Holland	5	2	0.0	0
Nik Needham	4	0	0.0	0
Raekwon Davis	3	1	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	1	3	0.0	0
Jaelan Phillips	2	2	1.0	0
Byron Jones	3	1	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	2	2	0.0	1
Zach Sieler	2	1	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	1	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	30/41	411	5	0	2	28.3
Blaine Gabbert	3/3	41	0	0	0	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	12	67	5.6	1	2.6
Ronald Jones	5	21	4.2	0	-0.6
Giovani Bernard	4	21	5.3	0	0.0
Tom Brady	1	13	13.0	0	0.9
Blaine Gabbert	3	-1	-0.3	0	-5.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	7	8	124	2	19%	12.9
Mike Evans	6	8	113	2	19%	8.6
Chris Godwin	7	11	70	0	26%	0.7
Leonard Fournette	4	5	43	0	12%	2.8
Tyler Johnson	3	3	42	0	7%	4.1
O.J. Howard	2	3	19	0	7%	1.8
Ronald Jones	1	1	15	0	2%	0.9
Giovani Bernard	2	2	14	1	5%	2.7
Cameron Brate	1	1	12	0	2%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	5	3	0.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jamel Dean	5	0	0.0	1	2
Shaquil Barrett	3	1	1.5	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	0	0.0	0	0
Richard Sherman	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kevin Minter	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ross Cockrell	1	1	0.0	0	1
Lavonte David	1	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -11
Closing total: 48
MIA moneyline: +448
TB moneyline: -564

Buccaneers closed -11 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 48; the game landed 62 — over by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 84°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: MIA 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Bruce Arians