For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · NRG Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 5
It turned at Q3 14:19, 2nd and 10, on Lonnie Johnson — 16.7 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:19, Texans +16.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:19 · 2nd and 10
Lonnie Johnson
Texans
(14:19) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson [91-R.Lopez] at NE 44. 1-L.Johnson to NE 44 for no gain.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Patriots at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at +0.30 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 22.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(14:19) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson [91-R.Lopez] at NE 44. 1-L.Johnson to NE 44 for no gain.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nick Folk's 21-yard field goal with 0:17 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Antony Auclair11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Mills · kick no good, wide right+60–6Chris Moore67-yd TD catch67-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Mills · kick no good, wide left+66–12
Nick Folk21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+325–2210 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryTexans
Patriots ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Texans’s 56 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Texans 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 84.1% in week 4 against 42.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.8 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: +24.3 pts in week 4 against −12.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-12.9 ptsright on their number · −6.8 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±16.8 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 60 snaps
Texans-3.2 ptsright on their number · +0.6 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 96%
Tendencies room →Patriots42.9%right on their number · −7.3 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 49 early downs
Texans46.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 53.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49% to 109%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 30.0%.
Texans50.0%leaned — went for it · +17.6 vs their 32.4%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Patriots15.6%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Texans13.3%right on their number · +1.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 17.6 points above their season mean of 32.4% and 1.1 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Houston Texans
47 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
21/29, 312 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
17.9 expected points added · +9.3% completion over expected
Passing · NE
23/30, 231 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
8.8 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Chris Moore banked 14.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 24.7 | +13.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/29, 312 yd, 3 TD · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 21.9 | +14.8 | 63% | 69% | 19% | 14% | 5/5, 109 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter HenryTE · Alpha Receiver | 19.5 | +5.8 | 63% | 87% | 29% | 34% | 6/8, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris ConleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 15.4 | +7.7 | 92% | 91% | 15% | 29% | 3/4, 84 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 11.5 | −0.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/30, 231 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, 3 yd |
| David JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 10.1 | −0.1 | 53% | 72% | 22% | 17% | 2 car, 5 yd · 5/6, 46 yd |
| Damien HarrisRB · Committee Back | 9.8 | −1.2 | 33% | 16% | 0% | — | 14 car, 58 yd, 1 TD |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +1.3 | 91% | 100% | 18% | 25% | 4/5, 56 yd |
| Antony AuclairTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +4.4 | 34% | 19% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 11 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandon BoldenRB · Receiving Back | 7.1 | −0.3 | 38% | 65% | 14% | 0% | 2 car, 25 yd · 4/4, 6 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +1.5 | 50% | 65% | 11% | 6% | 1 car, 12 yd · 3/3, 26 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | −0.1 | 67% | 81% | 14% | 17% | 3/4, 32 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Featured Receiver | 5.3 | −1.9 | 85% | 94% | 19% | 21% | 3/5, 23 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | 0.0 | 63% | 32% | 7% | 8% | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/2, 27 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −2.0 | 63% | 50% | 15% | 4% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Mark IngramRB · Bell Cow Back | 4.1 | −3.6 | 44% | 25% | 0% | — | 16 car, 41 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +1.0 | 46% | 72% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | 2.3 | −3.2 | 34% | 23% | 0% | — | 11 car, 23 yd |
| Phillip LindsayRB | 1.9 | −0.3 | 22% | 9% | 0% | — | 5 car, 19 yd |
| N'Keal HarryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.5 | 34% | 23% | 7% | 9% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Andre RobertsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Matt SlaterWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon].
Q2 13:09 · Texans · 3rd & 2 at HOU 33 · gained 67 · +5.95 EP · +16.5% win probability
152 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Texans6Patriots6Texans6Patriots6Texans12Patriots6Texans15Patriots9Texans15Patriots9Texans21Patriots9Texans22Patriots12Texans22Patriots15Texans22Patriots21Texans22Patriots22Texans22Patriots25Texans22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Texans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 23/30 | 231 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +8.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 1 | −5.9 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 29% | +6.5 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Phillips | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 21/29 | 312 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +17.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_05_NE_HOU
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -8, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 47 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 11 |
| 23 |
| 2.1 |
| 0 |
| −4.6 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| +2.9 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 14% | −1.0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 11% | +1.4 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | +0.4 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 14% | −2.4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Matt Judon | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dont'a Hightower | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joejuan Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Winovich | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.9 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 5 | 5 | 109 | 1 | 19% | +7.7 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 4 | 84 | 1 | 15% | +7.5 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 22% | +4.5 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 19% | −1.2 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 15% | −0.0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +2.2 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 4% | +1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirksey | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Desmond King | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Reid | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Mitchell | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maliek Collins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
