2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · NRG Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Houston Texans

NE -8 no coverO 39.5 ✓DomePatriots closed -8, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:19, NE +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:19NE — HOU NE ball · 2nd & 10NE 54%

(14:19) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson [91-R.Lopez] at NE 44. 1-L.Johnson to NE 44 for no gain.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:19NE +17% win prob(14:19) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson [91-R.Lopez] at NE 44. 1-L.Johnson to NE 44 for no gain.
Q4 · 9:36HOU +16% win prob(9:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 8:54NE +16% win prob(8:54) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 37-D.Harris up the middle to HOU 1 for 4 yards (39-T.Mitchell). FUMBLES (39-T.Mitchell), RECOVERED by HOU-93-J.Johnson at HOU 0. Touchback.
Q2 · 0:02NE +15% win prob7-J.Bailey kicks 26 yards from NE 35 to HOU 39, impetus ends at HOU 49, out of bounds.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Texans
Offensive plays	60	56
Total yards	352	360 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	48% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	50%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30	0.56 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27 (edge)	-0.29
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

21/29, 312 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.9 expected points added · +9.3% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

23/30, 231 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

8.8 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

14 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

-5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Mark IngramRB

16 att, 41 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Chris MooreWR

5/5 for 109 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Chris ConleyWR

3/4 for 84 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 21	20	79	10:06	Touchdown
2	NE	NE 40	12	60	5:37	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 25	5	75	1:21	Touchdown
4	NE	NE 22	9	67	4:08	Defensive touchdown
5	HOU	HOU 20	15	83	7:11	Turnover on downs
6	NE	NE 24	10	37	1:35	Turnover on downs
7	HOU	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
8	NE	NE 27	3	0	0:47	Interception
9	HOU	NE 44	3	44	0:42	Touchdown
10	NE	NE 25	5	0	1:48	Punt
11	HOU	HOU 28	4	8	1:21	Punt
12	NE	HOU 36	4	3	1:57	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	HOU 23	7	16	2:37	Punt
14	NE	NE 39	7	47	3:58	Turnover on downs
15	HOU	HOU 22	8	40	3:25	Turnover on downs
16	NE	NE 46	8	54	3:54	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	5	8	2:16	Punt
18	NE	NE 13	15	84	7:00	Turnover on downs
19	HOU	HOU 25	3	7	0:15	Fumble

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 84 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	23/30	231	1	1	1	8.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	14	58	4.1	1	-5.9
Brandon Bolden	2	25	12.5	0	1.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	11	23	2.1	0	-4.6
Kendrick Bourne	1	12	12.0	0	0.9
Jonnu Smith	1	5	5.0	0	0.2
Mac Jones	1	3	3.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Henry	6	8	75	1	29%	6.5
Jakobi Meyers	4	5	56	0	18%	2.9
Nelson Agholor	3	4	32	0	14%	-1.0
Jonnu Smith	2	2	27	0	7%	2.1
Kendrick Bourne	3	3	26	0	11%	1.4
N'Keal Harry	1	2	9	0	7%	0.4
Brandon Bolden	4	4	6	0	14%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Dugger	5	5	0.0	0
Adrian Phillips	4	3	0.0	0
J.C. Jackson	4	1	0.0	1
Matt Judon	2	2	2.0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	3	0.0	0
Dont'a Hightower	3	1	0.0	0
Devin McCourty	3	0	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	2	1	0.0	0
Joejuan Williams	1	1	0.0	0
Chase Winovich	1	1	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	21/29	312	3	0	3	17.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mark Ingram	16	41	2.6	-3.7
Phillip Lindsay	5	19	3.8	-1.9
David Johnson	2	5	2.5	-1.9
Davis Mills	1	2	2.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Moore	5	5	109	1	19%	7.7
Chris Conley	3	4	84	1	15%	7.5
David Johnson	5	6	46	0	22%	4.5
Brandin Cooks	3	5	23	0	19%	-1.2
Pharaoh Brown	2	4	22	0	15%	-0.0
Jordan Akins	2	2	17	0	7%	2.2
Antony Auclair	1	1	11	1	4%	1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Christian Kirksey	3	6	0.0	0	1
Desmond King	5	3	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	3	3	0.0	0	1
Jordan Jenkins	1	4	0.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	4	1	0.0	0	1
Kamu Grugier-Hill	4	0	0.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	2	2	0.0	0	0
Lonnie Johnson	1	3	0.0	1	1
Jonathan Greenard	3	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -8
Closing total: 39.5
NE moneyline: -339
HOU moneyline: +288

Patriots closed -8, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 47 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: NE 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs David Culley