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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 25 at Houston Texans 22. Final.
Patriots -8 no coverO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 5
New England Patriots 25, Texans 22 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 14:19, 2nd and 10, on Lonnie Johnson — 16.7 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:19 · 2nd and 10
Lonnie Johnson
Texans
(14:19) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson [91-R.Lopez] at NE 44. 1-L.Johnson to NE 44 for no gain.
Dome
Patriots closed -8, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New England Patriots 25–22 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 14:19, Texans +16.7% win probability on one snap.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Damien HarrisTexansQ2 8:54(8:54) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 37-D.Harris up the middle to HOU 1 for 4 yards (39-T.Mitchell). FUMBLES (39-T.Mitchell), RECOVERED by HOU-93-J.Johnson at HOU 0. Touchback.
15.7pts
Hunter HenryPatriotsQ4 9:36(9:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Patriots at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at +0.30 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Patriots154 of 167 plays carry both curves
(14:19) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson [91-R.Lopez] at NE 44. 1-L.Johnson to NE 44 for no gain.
Swing +16.7 for TexansExpected points +3.84 for TexansThe model had Texans 27 points higher than the market did.play 89
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:19NE +17% win prob(14:19) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle intended for 15-N.Agholor INTERCEPTED by 1-L.Johnson [91-R.Lopez] at NE 44. 1-L.Johnson to NE 44 for no gain.
4th · 9:36HOU +16% win prob(9:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:54NE +16% win prob(8:54) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 37-D.Harris up the middle to HOU 1 for 4 yards (39-T.Mitchell). FUMBLES (39-T.Mitchell), RECOVERED by HOU-93-J.Johnson at HOU 0. Touchback.
2nd · 0:02NE +15% win prob7-J.Bailey kicks 26 yards from NE 35 to HOU 39, impetus ends at HOU 49, out of bounds.
2nd · 2:50HOU +15% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 18-C.Conley to NE 4 for 40 yards (33-J.Williams).
4th · 5:18HOU +14% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 1-N.Harry. PENALTY on HOU-97-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 29 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 21-yard field goal with 0:17 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:58Antony Auclair·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills · kick no good, wide right+60–6
2nd14:21Damien Harris·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+66–6
2nd13:09Chris Moore·67-yd TD catch67-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills · kick no good, wide left+66–12
2nd1:40Ka'imi Fairbairn·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+36–15
2nd0:06Nick Folk·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+39–15
3rd13:39Chris Conley·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Davis Millsfrom Davis Mills+79–22
3rd8:29Nick Folk·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+312–22
3rd1:53Nick Folk·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+315–22
4th9:36Hunter Henry·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+722–22
4th0:17Nick Folk·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+325–22
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryTexans
Patriots6–3Texans
352Total yards360
5.9Yards per play6.4
48%Success rate39%
55%Third-down rate43%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays5
18First downs13
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Patriots: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.19Texans: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Patriots: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.56Texans: +0.56 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Patriots: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.29Texans: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 60 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Texans’s 56 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Texans 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 84.1% in week 4 against 42.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.8 points.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: +24.3 pts in week 4 against −12.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
right on their number · +1.8 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Texans13.3%
right on their number · +1.5 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 17.6 points above their season mean of 32.4% and 1.1 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Mills pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:09) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep right to 15-C.Moore for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-M.Judon].
Q2 13:09 · Texans · 3rd & 2 at HOU 33 · gained 67 · +5.95 EP · +16.5% win probability
152 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 84 yards from the NE 13 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
40%
Yards
712
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2571%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.5480%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.3044%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.1325%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.6243%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.3220%
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+1.0560%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Patriots0Texans6
Touchdown22 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Patriots 11
The period ended10 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Texans 7
2nd quarter53 plays
Patriots6Texans6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Texans 7 to the Texans 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Patriots6Texans12
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Texans 5
Patriots6Texans15
Field goal23 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Patriots 2
Patriots9Texans15
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Texans 34
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Patriots9Texans21
Patriots9Texans22
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 37
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 36
Patriots12Texans22
Field goal4 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Texans 33
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Texans 38
Patriots15Texans22
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Texans 14
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 29
4th quarter43 plays
No good5 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Patriots21Texans22
Patriots22Texans22
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Texans 13
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Patriots25Texans22
Field goal21 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Texans 3
Fumble lost3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
