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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 33 at Washington Commanders 22. Final.
Saints -2.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 5
New Orleans Saints 33, Commanders 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:08, 1st and 10, on Marquez Callaway — 23.2 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:08 · 1st and 10
Marquez Callaway
Saints
(:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.
New Orleans Saints 33–22. Biggest swing: Q2 0:08, Saints +23.2% win probability on one snap.
23.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cole HolcombCommandersQ1 13:29(13:29) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 7-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Holcomb [93-Jon.Allen] at WAS 46. 55-C.Holcomb pushed ob at NO 31 for 23 yards (41-A.Kamara).
15.7pts
Jameis WinstonCommandersQ1 3:35(3:35) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at NO 44 for -6 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [95-C.Toohill], RECOVERED by WAS-94-D.Payne at 50. 94-D.Payne to NO 44 for 6 yards (7-T.Hill).
13.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.22 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Saints won this one — 4 of 10 on third down, against Commanders at 5 of 16 on third down.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Saints173 of 185 plays carry both curves
(:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −23.2 for CommandersExpected points −6.57 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 9 points higher than the market did.play 92
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:08WAS +23% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:29NO +16% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 7-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Holcomb [93-Jon.Allen] at WAS 46. 55-C.Holcomb pushed ob at NO 31 for 23 yards (41-A.Kamara).
1st · 3:35NO +13% win prob(3:35) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at NO 44 for -6 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [95-C.Toohill], RECOVERED by WAS-94-D.Payne at 50. 94-D.Payne to NO 44 for 6 yards (7-T.Hill).
1st · 11:23WAS +13% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 11-D.Harris for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:50WAS +12% win prob(6:50) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to NO 47, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. NO-24-D.Washington was injured during the play.
1st · 1:00WAS +11% win prob(1:00) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NO 11, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds. PENALTY on NO-96-C.Granderson, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at NO 49 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marquez Callaway's 49-yard touchdown catch with 0:08 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:31Dustin Hopkins·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+30–3
4th7:56Antonio Gibson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+627–22
4th3:21Alvin Kamara·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Jameis Winstonfrom Jameis Winston · kick no good, hit left upright+633–22
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryCommanders
Saints2–3Commanders
370Total yards373
6.9Yards per play4.8
39%Success rate45%
40%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays8
17First downs23
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Commanders ahead 3–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in yards per play.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Saints: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.15Commanders: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Saints: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.22Commanders: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Saints: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 54 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Commanders’s 77 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Saints 5, Commanders 5.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, +9.9 pts, is past their previous high of −6.0 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 4.0-swing turn from week 4.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 33.3% in week 4 against 60.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Commanders26.5%
leaned — got home · +11.0 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.9 pts, 16.3 points above their season mean of -6.3 pts and 2.3 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
74James HurstT · Every snap100%56 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%56 snaps
76Calvin ThrockmortonT · Every snap100%56 snaps
2Jameis WinstonQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%56 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Full-time89%50 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time88%49 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Full-time86%48 snaps
1Marquez CallawayWR · Full-time82%46 snaps
12Kenny StillsWR · Heavy rotation71%40 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational45%25 snaps
45Garrett GriffinTE · Rotational30%17 snaps
40Alex ArmahRB · Rotational29%16 snaps
64Will ClappC · Situational20%11 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational16%9 snaps
80Chris HoganWR · Situational14%8 snaps
28Devine OzigboRB · Situational13%7 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonTE · Situational11%6 snaps
24Dwayne WashingtonRB · Situational4%2 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Erik McCoyCDesmond TrufantCBJalyn HolmesDEIan BookQBTerron ArmsteadTLil'Jordan HumphreyWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Trevor SiemianQB
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
72Charles LenoT · Every snap100%83 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%83 snaps
79Ereck FlowersG · Every snap100%83 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%83 snaps
4Taylor HeinickeQB · Every snap100%83 snaps
83Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Every snap99%82 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time84%70 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Heavy rotation71%59 snaps
1DeAndre CarterWR · Heavy rotation70%58 snaps
13Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation61%51 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Heavy rotation57%47 snaps
15Dax MilneWR · Rotational41%34 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Rotational41%34 snaps
76Samuel CosmiT · Rotational30%25 snaps
87John BatesTE · Situational20%17 snaps
18Antonio Gandy-GoldenWR · Situational10%8 snaps
32Jaret PattersonRB · Situational6%5 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Situational6%5 snaps
77Saahdiq CharlesT · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Danny JohnsonCBShaka ToneyDEBrandon ScherffGJace SternbergerTECam SimsWRDyami BrownWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass+22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:23) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 11-D.Harris for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 11:23 · Saints · 3rd & 7 at NO 28 · gained 72 · +7.27 EP · +22.0% win probability
171 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
40%
Yards
742
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR62-0.2866%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.7156%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4070%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.5738%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1357%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.0583%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.350%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 39
Saints0Commanders3
Field goal4 plays, from the Saints 31 to the Saints 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Saints6Commanders3
Saints7Commanders3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 28
Saints7Commanders6
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Saints 5
Offense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Saints 25 to midfield
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Saints 18
2nd quarter52 plays
Saints7Commanders12
Saints7Commanders13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Saints 5
Saints13Commanders13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Commanders 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Saints 16
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Saints 35
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 47
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 1 to the Commanders 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
Saints19Commanders13
Saints20Commanders13
Touchdown2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 28
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Saints 40
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Commanders 22
Punt4 plays
Saints20Commanders16
Field goal14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Saints 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 42
4th quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Saints 38 to midfield
Intercepted3 plays
Saints26Commanders16
Saints27Commanders16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Commanders 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Saints27Commanders22
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Saints 1
Saints33Commanders22
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Commanders 19
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Saints 48
The period ended10 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Commanders 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -2.5
Closing total
43.5
Saints moneyline
-130
Commanders moneyline
+117
Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 55 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north-east; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Saints 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Ron Rivera
2nd · 7:11NO +10% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right intended for 10-C.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 2. 29-P.Adebo to NO 2 for no gain (10-C.Samuel).
2nd · 8:41WAS +8% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 83-R.Seals-Jones ran ob at NO 29 for 16 yards. New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 08:29.)
