2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · FedExField

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Washington Commanders

NO -2.5 ✓O 43.5 ✓Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.

New Orleans Saints 33–22. Biggest swing: Q2 0:08, WAS +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:08NO — WAS NO ball · 1st & 10NO 58%

(:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:08WAS +23% win prob(:08) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep right to 1-M.Callaway for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 13:29NO +16% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 7-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 55-C.Holcomb [93-Jon.Allen] at WAS 46. 55-C.Holcomb pushed ob at NO 31 for 23 yards (41-A.Kamara).
Q1 · 3:35NO +13% win prob(3:35) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at NO 44 for -6 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young) [95-C.Toohill], RECOVERED by WAS-94-D.Payne at 50. 94-D.Payne to NO 44 for 6 yards (7-T.Hill).
Q1 · 11:23WAS +13% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 11-D.Harris for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Commanders
Offensive plays	54	77
Total yards	370	373 (edge)
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	39%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	-0.22
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	4/10 (edge)	5/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	17	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

15/30, 279 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

7.2 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

20/41, 248 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-13.3 expected points added · -12.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

16 att, 71 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

20 att, 60 yds, 2 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Marquez CallawayWR

4/8 for 85 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Adam HumphriesWR

3/5 for 73 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 24	6	15	1:41	Interception
2	WAS	NO 31	4	5	0:52	Turnover on downs
3	NO	NO 25	5	75	1:14	Touchdown
4	WAS	WAS 23	13	72	6:18	Turnover on downs
5	NO	NO 25	4	25	1:28	Fumble
6	WAS	NO 44	8	23	4:11	Touchdown
7	NO	NO 25	8	60	3:18	Touchdown
8	WAS	WAS 25	9	69	3:55	Interception
9	NO	NO 2	4	0	0:21	Punt
10	WAS	NO 47	7	12	2:30	Turnover on downs
11	NO	NO 35	6	4	2:19	Punt
12	WAS	WAS 1	4	6	1:45	Punt
13	NO	WAS 49	2	49	0:08	Touchdown
14	WAS	WAS 25	5	3	1:11	Punt
15	NO	NO 35	4	5	0:52	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 3	6	20	3:17	Punt
17	NO	NO 33	4	0	0:27	Punt
18	WAS	WAS 25	14	69	7:20	Turnover on downs
19	NO	NO 25	7	25	2:53	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 2	3	0	0:16	Interception
21	NO	WAS 26	5	26	1:32	Touchdown
22	WAS	WAS 25	10	67	4:21	Touchdown
23	NO	NO 25	10	75	4:36	Touchdown
24	WAS	WAS 25	6	27	0:30	Turnover on downs
25	NO	NO 48	6	11	2:45	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	15/30	279	4	1	2	7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	16	71	4.4	1	-1.6
Jameis Winston	6	26	4.3	0	1.0
Kenny Stills	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquez Callaway	4	8	85	2	29%	9.3
Deonte Harty	1	1	72	1	4%	7.3
Alvin Kamara	5	8	51	1	29%	2.4
Adam Trautman	2	2	43	0	7%	2.5
Kenny Stills	2	5	17	0	18%	0.5
Taysom Hill	1	2	11	0	7%	-4.8
Juwan Johnson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6
Chris Hogan	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Pete Werner	7	5	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	4	3	1.0	0	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	5	0	0.0	0	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	3	1	0.0	0	1
Paulson Adebo	4	0	0.0	1	1
Cameron Jordan	3	1	0.0	0	1
Marcus Williams	3	0	0.0	0	1
Montravius Adams	1	2	0.0	0	1
Shy Tuttle	1	2	0.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	20/41	248	0	2	2	-13.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	20	60	3.0	2	-1.0
Taylor Heinicke	5	40	8.0	0	2.7
Jaret Patterson	4	13	3.3	0	0.8
DeAndre Carter	1	11	11.0	0	0.7
Curtis Samuel	1	8	8.0	0	0.5
J.D. McKissic	2	-1	-0.5	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Humphries	3	5	73	12%	3.2
DeAndre Carter	4	8	62	20%	1.3
Terry McLaurin	4	11	46	27%	-7.4
Ricky Seals-Jones	5	9	41	22%	-0.8
Antonio Gibson	2	2	12	5%	0.7
J.D. McKissic	1	4	8	10%	-4.1
Dax Milne	1	1	6	2%	0.0
Curtis Samuel	0	1	0	2%	-3.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cole Holcomb	3	4	0.0	1	1
Landon Collins	2	4	0.0	0	0
Montez Sweat	2	3	0.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	2	2	0.0	0	0
William Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	3	0	1.0	0	0
Chase Young	1	2	1.0	0	0
Khaleke Hudson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	0	0.0	0	1
Kamren Curl	0	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2.5
Closing total: 43.5
NO moneyline: -130
WAS moneyline: +117

Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 55 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: NO 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Ron Rivera