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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
⏸live · 12s tick · as of 6:46 PM ET · 3 h ago · 1 live · 1 to play · 14 final
Dallas Cowboys 44, Giants 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 2:56, 4th and 1, on Devontae Booker — 8.9 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Cowboys closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Dallas Cowboys 44–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:56, Giants +8.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:56 · 4th and 1
Devontae Booker
Giants
(2:56) 28-D.Booker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
8.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
CeeDee LambCowboysQ2 12:06(12:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.6pts
Kadarius ToneyGiantsQ2 4:50(4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 89-K.Toney to DAL 2 for 28 yards (28-M.Hooker).
7.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 13 chunk plays, against Giants at 5 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 13 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 2 touchdowns on 8 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.13 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Giants180 of 190 plays carry both curves
(2:56) 28-D.Booker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.9 for CowboysExpected points −2.36 for CowboysThe model had Giants 11 points higher than the market did.play 80
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:56DAL +9% win prob(2:56) 28-D.Booker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:06DAL +8% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:50DAL +7% win prob(4:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 89-K.Toney to DAL 2 for 28 yards (28-M.Hooker).
2nd · 0:41DAL +7% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 19-A.Cooper for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a skinny post.
1st · 0:38NYG +6% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 10, RECOVERED by NYG-55-R.Ragland at NYG 8.
3rd · 11:55NYG +6% win prob(11:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon FUMBLES (Aborted) at DAL 29, and recovers at DAL 33.
3rd · 10:04
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amari Cooper's 24-yard touchdown catch with 0:41 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:20Greg Zuerlein·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
2nd12:06CeeDee Lamb·49-yd TD catch49-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+70–10
2nd10:15Graham Gano·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+33–10
Cowboys ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Giants: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.18Cowboys: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.33Cowboys: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.27Giants: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.04Cowboys: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 64 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 74 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Cowboys 8.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 4 against 60.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.1 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cowboys17.5%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.7%, 17.6 points below their season mean of 57.2% and 1.4 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(12:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:06 · Cowboys · 3rd & 8 at NYG 49 · gained 49 · +5.49 EP · +12.8% win probability
178 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 98 yards from the DAL 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
43%
Yards
882
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2459%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.0859%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.3275%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2829%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.5257%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.190%
Giants2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Cowboys0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 44
No good6 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Cowboys 36
Giants0Cowboys3
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Giants 12
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Giants 5
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Giants0Cowboys9
Giants0Cowboys10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Giants 49
Giants3Cowboys10
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 33
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 34
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, four linebackers and one backIn the boxEleven defenders
Giants9Cowboys10
Giants10Cowboys10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Cowboys 1
Giants10Cowboys16
Giants10Cowboys17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Giants13Cowboys17
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 24
Giants13Cowboys23
Giants13Cowboys24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 2
Intercepted2 plays
Giants13Cowboys27
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 41 to the Giants 20
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 37
4th quarter55 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Cowboys 2
Giants13Cowboys33
Giants13Cowboys34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 2 to the Giants 13
Giants19Cowboys34
Giants20Cowboys34
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 3
Giants20Cowboys37
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Giants 13
Giants20Cowboys43
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
Giants20Cowboys44
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
