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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Jets161 of 172 plays carry both curves
(6:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 8-K.Pitts to NYJ 36 for 39 yards (26-B.Echols) [91-J.Franklin-Myers].
Swing +7.7 for FalconsExpected points +2.46 for FalconsModel and market agree here.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 6:49ATL +8% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 8-K.Pitts to NYJ 36 for 39 yards (26-B.Echols) [91-J.Franklin-Myers].
4th · 4:52ATL +8% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to NYJ 24 for 15 yards (37-B.Hall).
1st · 11:27ATL +6% win prob(11:27) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to NYJ 28 for 12 yards (26-B.Echols; 39-J.Wilson).
1st · 10:38ATL +6% win prob(10:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to NYJ 12 for 16 yards (35-S.Neasman; 30-M.Carter II) [94-F.Fatukasi].
4th · 6:59ATL +5% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 7:08ATL +5% win prob(7:08) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 8-E.Moore (24-A.Terrell). PENALTY on ATL-24-A.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at ATL 43 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 31-yard field goal with 8:51 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:51Younghoe Koo·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+30–3
1st1:47Kyle Pitts·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+70–10
2nd11:06Hayden Hurst·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+70–17
2nd2:18Matt Ammendola·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+33–17
2nd0:02Younghoe Koo·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Harris+33–20
3rd11:00Ty Johnson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+69–20
4th0:22Matt Ammendola·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+320–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryFalcons
Jets1–8Falcons
232Total yards451
4.4Yards per play6.1
47%Success rate50%
50%Third-down rate64%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays6
16First downs25
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers2
The read
Falcons ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Jets: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.20Falcons: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Jets: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.34Falcons: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Jets: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.04Falcons: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 53 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Falcons’s 74 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Jets 4, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +6.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Falcons13.9%
leaned — got home · +4.4 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 33.8 points below their season mean of 33.8% and 1.3 times their own 26.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Patterson up+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:27) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to NYJ 28 for 12 yards (26-B.Echols; 39-J.Wilson).
Q1 11:27 · Falcons · 4th & 1 at NYJ 40 · gained 12 · +3.00 EP · +11.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 92 yards from the ATL 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
46%
Yards
682
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1581%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.0465%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.2845%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.1556%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR15+0.5653%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12+0.2458%
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Jets0Falcons3
Field goal17 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Jets 11
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 33
Jets0Falcons9
Jets0Falcons10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 8 to the Jets 2
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 36
2nd quarter46 plays
Jets0Falcons16
Jets0Falcons17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Jets 17
Intercepted3 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 29
Jets3Falcons17
Field goal18 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Falcons 13
Jets3Falcons20
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Jets 34
3rd quarter37 plays
Jets9Falcons20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Falcons 1
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 40
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Falcons 45
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Jets 24
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 25
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Jets 42
Jets15Falcons20
Jets17Falcons20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Falcons 2
Jets17Falcons26
Jets17Falcons27
Touchdown13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Jets 3
Jets20Falcons27
Field goal16 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Falcons 14
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -3
Closing total
45.5
Jets moneyline
+138
Falcons moneyline
-153
Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north; 0.01 in of precipitation; partly cloudy.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Jets 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Robert Saleh vs Arthur Smith
1st · 12:55
ATL +5% win prob
(12:55) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 4-T.Sharpe. PENALTY on NYJ-56-Qu.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 36 - No Play.
3rd · 11:00ATL +4% win prob(11:00) (Shotgun) 25-T.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
