2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · Tottenham Stadium

New York Jets

Atlanta FalconsWinner

ATL -3 ✓O 45.5 ✓Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Atlanta Falcons 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 6:49, ATL +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 6:49NYJ — ATL ATL ball · 1st & 10ATL 79%

(6:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 8-K.Pitts to NYJ 36 for 39 yards (26-B.Echols) [91-J.Franklin-Myers].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 6:49ATL +8% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 8-K.Pitts to NYJ 36 for 39 yards (26-B.Echols) [91-J.Franklin-Myers].
Q4 · 4:52ATL +8% win prob(4:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus to NYJ 24 for 15 yards (37-B.Hall).
Q1 · 11:27ATL +6% win prob(11:27) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to NYJ 28 for 12 yards (26-B.Echols; 39-J.Wilson).
Q1 · 10:38ATL +6% win prob(10:38) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to NYJ 12 for 16 yards (35-S.Neasman; 30-M.Carter II) [94-F.Fatukasi].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Falcons
Offensive plays	53	74
Total yards	232	451 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.20 (edge)
Success rate	47%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.04
Third downs	5/10	9/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

33/45, 342 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

21.3 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Zach WilsonQB

19/32, 192 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.8 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

14 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Mike DavisRB

13 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

9/10 for 119 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

7/9 for 60 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	15	47	6:14	Turnover on downs
2	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	8	1:48	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 8	11	87	5:16	Touchdown
4	NYJ	NYJ 28	5	8	1:42	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 23	9	62	3:59	Touchdown
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	3	0	0:15	Interception
7	ATL	NYJ 34	2	21	0:49	Fumble
8	NYJ	NYJ 13	16	64	7:43	Turnover on downs
9	ATL	ATL 24	11	34	2:14	Turnover on downs
10	NYJ	ATL 29	9	29	4:04	Touchdown
11	ATL	ATL 25	7	15	2:10	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 36	5	19	2:11	Punt
13	ATL	ATL 9	10	68	4:21	Fumble
14	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	-1	1:46	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 31	9	37	5:58	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 10	5	61	2:35	Touchdown
17	ATL	ATL 25	11	80	4:36	Touchdown
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	44	2:02	Turnover on downs
19	ATL	NYJ 44	2	0	0:17	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 87 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Zach Wilson	19/32	192	0	1	2	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	10	38	3.8	1	-0.1
Ty Johnson	4	12	3.0	1	3.4
Tevin Coleman	3	11	3.7	0	0.0
Zach Wilson	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	4	7	45	23%	1.1
Keelan Cole	2	3	38	10%	-0.7
Denzel Mims	2	3	33	10%	1.3
Jamison Crowder	4	6	24	19%	0.3
Ty Johnson	2	3	22	10%	0.5
Michael Carter	3	3	20	10%	0.6
Braxton Berrios	1	1	6	3%	-0.1
Ryan Griffin	1	2	4	6%	-1.6
Tevin Coleman	0	1	0	3%	-0.7
Elijah Moore	0	2	0	6%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Brandin Echols	7	2	1
Quincy Williams	5	3	0
C.J. Mosley	2	6	0
Bryce Hall	6	1	2
Jamien Sherwood	4	2	0
Ashtyn Davis	4	1	0
Jarrod Wilson	1	3	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	2	2	0
Michael Carter	2	1	0
Sharrod Neasman	1	2	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	33/45	342	2	0	0	21.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	14	54	3.9	0	0.6
Mike Davis	13	53	4.1	1	-1.2
Wayne Gallman	1	2	2.0	0	-0.5
Matt Ryan	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	9	10	119	1	22%	9.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	7	9	60	0	20%	3.1
Tajae Sharpe	4	5	53	0	11%	4.0
Hayden Hurst	4	5	40	1	11%	-0.5
Lee Smith	3	3	30	0	7%	1.5
Olamide Zaccheaus	2	4	20	0	9%	0.6
Christian Blake	2	4	12	0	9%	0.3
Mike Davis	2	5	8	0	11%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Deion Jones	3	2	0.0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	2	3	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	4	0	0.0	0
Fabian Moreau	3	0	0.0	1
Darren Hall	3	0	0.0	0
Richie Grant	2	1	0.0	1
Grady Jarrett	3	0	0.0	0
Tyeler Davison	1	2	0.0	0
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner	2	0	1.0	0
Chris Williamson	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3
Closing total: 45.5
NYJ moneyline: +138
ATL moneyline: -153

Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: NYJ 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Arthur Smith