For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Eagles174 of 185 plays carry both curves
(2:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-R.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 3-S.Nelson at CAR 47. 3-S.Nelson ran ob at CAR 43 for 4 yards.
Swing −25.1 for PanthersExpected points −4.14 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:03PHI +25% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-R.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 3-S.Nelson at CAR 47. 3-S.Nelson ran ob at CAR 43 for 4 yards.
4th · 4:00PHI +23% win prob(4:00) 3-J.Charlton punt is BLOCKED by 57-T.Edwards, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by PHI-54-S.Bradley at CAR 27.
4th · 2:30CAR +19% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-R.Anderson to CAR 45 for 25 yards (3-S.Nelson; 23-R.McLeod).
3rd · 0:38CAR +13% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 16-Q.Watkins pushed ob at CAR 10 for 53 yards (42-S.Franklin) [91-M.Fox].
4th · 3:09CAR +12% win prob(3:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert to CAR 6 for 20 yards (34-S.Chandler; 42-S.Franklin).
4th · 5:38PHI +12% win prob(5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 2:42 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:17Zane Gonzalez·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+30–3
1st6:50Jake Elliott·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+33–3
1st3:12Tommy Tremble·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+73–10
2nd2:45Zane Gonzalez·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+33–13
2nd2:35Panthers·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+23–15
2nd0:04Jake Elliott·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder A.Siposs · snap R.Lovato+36–15
4th8:33Zane Gonzalez·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+313–18
4th2:42Jalen Hurts·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+821–18
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryPanthers
Eagles8–1Panthers
277Total yards267
4.6Yards per play3.8
35%Success rate40%
38%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
16First downs15
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers3
The read
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Eagles: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.30Panthers: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.40Eagles: −0.40 expected points added per play
−0.40Panthers: −0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Eagles: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.14Panthers: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Panthers’s 70 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Panthers 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 4 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Panthers9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 33.4 points below their season mean of 33.4% and 1.3 times their own 25.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
77Andre DillardT · Every snap100%67 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%67 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%67 snaps
63Jack DriscollT · Every snap100%67 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time93%62 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Full-time82%55 snaps
16Quez WatkinsWR · Full-time82%55 snaps
26Miles SandersRB · Heavy rotation75%50 snaps
18Jalen ReagorWR · Heavy rotation70%47 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Heavy rotation67%45 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation60%40 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Situational24%16 snaps
67Nate HerbigG · Situational18%12 snaps
84Greg WardWR · Situational16%11 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Situational7%5 snaps
19J.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR · Situational4%3 snaps
64Brett TothT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Mac McCainCBMarlon TuipulotuDTJack AndersonGGardner MinshewQBLane JohnsonT
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-R.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 3-S.Nelson at CAR 47. 3-S.Nelson ran ob at CAR 43 for 4 yards.
Q4 2:03 · Panthers · 1st & 20 at CAR 35 · gained nothing · -4.14 EP · −28.5% win probability
172 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 29 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 29 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.25
Success rate
35%
Yards
542
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.3163%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.3178%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2625%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.1627%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2067%
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays
Eagles0Panthers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Eagles 30
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 5 to the Panthers 11
Eagles3Panthers3
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 2
Eagles3Panthers9
Eagles3Panthers10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Eagles 5
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 46
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 32 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Eagles 22
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 32
Punt5 plays
Eagles3Panthers13
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Eagles 17
Eagles3Panthers15
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Eagles 46
Eagles6Panthers15
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Panthers 40
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 31
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 44
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Eagles 46
Intercepted1 play
Intercepted3 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Eagles 48
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Panthers 49
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Eagles 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Eagles12Panthers15
Eagles13Panthers15
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Panthers 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter18 plays
Eagles13Panthers18
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Eagles 30
Drive ended8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Panthers 39
3rd quarter1 plays
4th quarter29 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Eagles19Panthers18
Eagles21Panthers18
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 6
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 45
The period ended11 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Panthers 8
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
