2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -2.5 upsetU 46 ✓Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 21–18 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:03, PHI +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:03PHI — CAR CAR ball · 1st & 20PHI 64%

(2:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-R.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 3-S.Nelson at CAR 47. 3-S.Nelson ran ob at CAR 43 for 4 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:03PHI +25% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 11-R.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 3-S.Nelson at CAR 47. 3-S.Nelson ran ob at CAR 43 for 4 yards.
Q4 · 4:00PHI +23% win prob(4:00) 3-J.Charlton punt is BLOCKED by 57-T.Edwards, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by PHI-54-S.Bradley at CAR 27.
Q4 · 2:30CAR +19% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-R.Anderson to CAR 45 for 25 yards (3-S.Nelson; 23-R.McLeod).
Q3 · 0:38CAR +13% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 16-Q.Watkins pushed ob at CAR 10 for 53 yards (42-S.Franklin) [91-M.Fox].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Panthers
Offensive plays	60	70
Total yards	277 (edge)	267
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	3.8
Expected points added / play	-0.26 (edge)	-0.30
Success rate	35%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40 (edge)	-0.40
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

22/37, 198 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.5 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

21/37, 177 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-17.9 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

24 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

11 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

DeVonta SmithWR

7/9 for 77 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -2.2 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Quez WatkinsWR

3/3 for 48 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 22	5	-1	1:21	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 38	8	17	2:27	Turnover on downs
3	PHI	PHI 25	5	6	1:01	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 5	2	6	1:09	Interception
5	PHI	CAR 10	4	8	2:15	Turnover on downs
6	CAR	CAR 38	11	62	3:38	Touchdown
7	PHI	PHI 25	8	21	2:43	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 27	7	23	2:35	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 8	7	14	2:57	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 26	4	-3	2:09	Punt
11	PHI	PHI 33	4	1	1:54	Punt
12	CAR	PHI 40	6	0	3:12	Turnover on downs
13	PHI	PHI 16	2	0	0:13	Turnover on downs
14	CAR	CAR 35	7	19	1:55	Punt
15	PHI	PHI 16	5	39	0:31	Turnover on downs
16	CAR	CAR 16	7	15	2:25	Punt
17	PHI	CAR 49	3	16	1:31	Fumble
18	CAR	CAR 49	4	2	2:02	Punt
19	PHI	PHI 16	1	0	0:06	Interception
20	CAR	CAR 45	3	8	1:18	Interception
21	PHI	PHI 43	4	-8	2:00	Punt
22	CAR	CAR 28	6	32	3:11	Punt
23	PHI	PHI 20	7	76	2:19	Touchdown
24	CAR	CAR 25	12	54	6:39	Turnover on downs
25	PHI	PHI 25	9	41	2:54	Turnover on downs
26	CAR	CAR 39	4	7	1:42	Punt
27	PHI	CAR 27	5	29	1:15	Touchdown
28	CAR	CAR 25	5	25	0:41	Interception
29	PHI	CAR 43	7	35	1:57	End of game

0 of 29 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 76 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	22/37	198	0	1	2	-9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	11	45	4.1	0	-1.5
Jalen Hurts	9	30	3.3	2	-2.9
Kenneth Gainwell	2	16	8.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeVonta Smith	7	9	77	26%	-2.2
Quez Watkins	3	3	48	9%	2.9
Dallas Goedert	2	3	28	9%	2.2
Jalen Reagor	3	5	24	15%	-2.2
Kenneth Gainwell	1	3	8	9%	-1.6
Zach Ertz	1	6	7	18%	-5.7
Miles Sanders	5	5	6	15%	-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	9	4	0.0	0	0
Marcus Epps	5	3	0.0	0	0
Genard Avery	3	4	0.0	0	0
Davion Taylor	3	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	1	3	1.0	0	0
T.J. Edwards	1	3	0.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	2	2	0.0	0	0
Derek Barnett	2	1	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	2	1	0.0	1	2
Javon Hargrave	1	2	1.0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	21/37	177	1	3	3	-17.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	24	101	4.2	-2.0
Sam Darnold	2	10	5.0	1.0
Royce Freeman	3	2	0.7	-2.7
D.J. Moore	1	-4	-4.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	5	7	42	0	21%	-5.1
Ian Thomas	4	5	40	0	15%	1.7
Chuba Hubbard	5	6	33	0	18%	0.8
Robbie Chosen	2	7	30	0	21%	-7.0
Terrace Marshall	2	3	14	0	9%	-0.6
Tommy Tremble	2	4	12	1	12%	0.5
Royce Freeman	1	2	6	0	6%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Haason Reddick	5	2	2.0	0	0
Donte Jackson	4	2	0.0	1	1
Sean Chandler	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Chinn	3	1	0.0	0	0
Keith Taylor	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	1	0.0	0	1
Sam Franklin	1	2	0.0	0	0
Derrick Brown	1	2	0.0	0	1
C.J. Henderson	3	0	0.0	0	0
A.J. Bouye	3	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -2.5
Closing total: 46
PHI moneyline: +126
CAR moneyline: -139

Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 39 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: PHI 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Matt Rhule