For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 5
It turned at Q4 8:45, 2nd and 7, on Chase Edmonds — 12.6 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:45 · 2nd and 7
Chase Edmonds
49ers
(8:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-C.Edmonds to SF 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Johnson). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-C.Edmonds to SF 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (27-D.Johnson), RECOVERED by SF-27-D.Johnson at SF 46.
Arizona Cardinals 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 8:45, 49ers +12.6% win probability on one snap.
12.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Cardinals won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 6 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
(8:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-C.Edmonds to SF 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Johnson). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun)
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
James Conner's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:06 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryCardinals
Cardinals ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 59 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 57 at 58%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 2, Cardinals 3.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 83.3%, sat 60.0 points above their season number of 23.3% — they went for it by 2.3 times their own 26.0-point weekly swing.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-8.0 ptsright on their number · −1.4 vs their -6.6 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 59 snaps
Cardinals4.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 0.2 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →49ers51.2%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 43 early downs
Cardinals52.1%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -45% to 115%
Fourth Down room →49ers83.3%off script — went for it · +60.0 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±26.0 week to week (+2.31× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Cardinals0.0%leaned — took the kick · −47.6 vs their 47.6%, and they swing ±25.5 week to week (−1.87× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 33%
Tendencies room →49ers9.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Cardinals20.0%inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
SF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 60.0 points above their season mean of 23.3% and 2.3 times their own 26.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
22/31, 239 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.4 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected
Passing · SF
15/29, 192 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-6.8 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Rondale Moore banked 2.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.7 | +0.3 | 92% | 100% | 32% | 71% | 6/9, 87 yd, 1 TD |
| Deebo SamuelWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.1 | −0.1 | 86% | 83% | 32% | 28% | 1 car, 13 yd, 1 TD · 3/9, 58 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 14.7 | +2.3 | 48% | 58% | 21% | 13% | 3 car, 38 yd · 5/6, 59 yd |
| Trey LanceQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | −9.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/29, 192 yd, 1 INT · 16 car, 89 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 13.7 | −4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/31, 239 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 1 yd |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 10.7 | +0.6 | 48% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 29 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +0.7 | 54% | 55% | 18% | 12% | 1 car, 11 yd · 5/5, 39 yd |
| Elijah MitchellRB | 8.2 | +1.2 | 68% | 57% | 7% | 0% | 9 car, 43 yd · 2/2, 19 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB · Receiving Back | 6.5 | +0.2 | 65% | 63% | 14% | 19% | 1 car, 0 yd · 3/4, 35 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.0 | 71% | 66% | 14% | 9% | 2/4, 32 yd |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.0 | 91% | 77% | 7% | 8% | 2/2, 25 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB · Receiving Back | 4.4 | −5.1 | 61% | 64% | 14% | 0% | 6 car, 15 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Mohamed SanuWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −0.8 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 13% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Maxx WilliamsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.0 | 41% | 42% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 14 yd |
| A.J. GreenWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −3.1 | 80% | 91% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 32% | 31% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Trey SermonRB | 0.7 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jonathan WardRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Eno BenjaminRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Trenton CannonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Travis BenjaminWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.9 | 23% | 14% | 11% | 23% | 0/3, 0 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-C.Edmonds to SF 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Johnson). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-C.Edmonds to SF 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (27-D.Johnson), RECOVERED by SF-27-D.Johnson at SF 46.
Q4 8:45 · Cardinals · 2nd & 7 at SF 49 · gained 2 · -4.93 EP · −16.8% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 96 yards from the ARI 1 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers0
Cardinals649ers0Cardinals749ers0Cardinals1049ers6Cardinals1049ers7Cardinals1049ers7Cardinals1649ers7Cardinals1749ers10Cardinals17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 15/29 | 192 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel | 3 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 32% | −3.1 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 14% | +2.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmie Ward | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Norman | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaquiski Tartt |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/31 | 239 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +4.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondale Moore |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_05_SF_ARI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 27 — under by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 14% | +2.6 |
| Ross Dwelley | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11% | +3.4 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −5.8 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Emmanuel Moseley | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Jones | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bosa | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontae Johnson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcell Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samson Ebukam | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |
| 38 |
| 12.7 |
| 0 |
| +2.6 |
| James Conner | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 1 | −1.8 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 9 | 87 | 1 | 32% | +6.9 |
| Rondale Moore | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 21% | +2.5 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 18% | +1.7 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −5.9 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Hamilton | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Golden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jace Whittaker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Vallejo | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
