2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · State Farm Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Arizona CardinalsWinner

ARI -6 ✓U 48.5 ✓DomeCardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.

Arizona Cardinals 17–10. Biggest swing: Q4 8:45, SF +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:45SF — ARI ARI ball · 2nd & 7ARI 82%

(8:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-C.Edmonds to SF 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Johnson). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun)

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:45SF +13% win prob(8:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-C.Edmonds to SF 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Johnson). San Francisco challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 2-C.Edmonds to SF 47 for 2 yards (27-D.Johnson). FUMBLES (27-D.Johnson), RECOVERED by SF-27-D.Johnson at SF 46.
Q3 · 1:49ARI +11% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 7:53SF +10% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete short middle to 19-D.Samuel (99-J.Watt).
Q1 · 12:57SF +9% win prob(12:57) 5-T.Lance pass deep middle intended for 17-T.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 3-B.Baker at ARI 17. 3-B.Baker to ARI 34 for 17 yards (82-R.Dwelley).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	59	57
Total yards	338 (edge)	311
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	-0.17	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	39%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	3/11	3/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	16	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

22/31, 239 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.4 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Trey LanceQB

15/29, 192 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-6.8 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Trey LanceQB

16 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

9 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

6/9 for 87 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Rondale MooreWR

5/6 for 59 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	5	30	2:14	Interception
2	ARI	ARI 34	9	66	3:44	Touchdown
3	SF	SF 25	8	20	4:17	Turnover on downs
4	ARI	ARI 33	4	5	2:21	Punt
5	SF	SF 6	13	93	5:58	Turnover on downs
6	ARI	ARI 1	14	83	5:59	Turnover on downs
7	SF	SF 25	5	-1	1:43	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 30	11	32	3:44	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 25	5	13	1:10	Punt
10	SF	SF 36	11	48	7:30	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 7	4	5	1:10	Punt
12	SF	SF 41	7	59	3:28	Touchdown
13	ARI	ARI 25	8	25	2:31	Punt
14	SF	SF 20	7	37	4:53	Turnover on downs
15	ARI	ARI 48	2	5	0:39	Fumble
16	SF	SF 46	4	6	0:50	Turnover on downs
17	ARI	ARI 48	6	52	2:36	Touchdown
18	SF	SF 25	7	46	1:01	Turnover on downs
19	ARI	ARI 25	8	25	4:12	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 93 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trey Lance	15/29	192	0	1	2	-6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Trey Lance	16	89	5.6	0	-1.6
Elijah Mitchell	9	43	4.8	0	-1.0
Deebo Samuel	1	13	13.0	1	2.4
Trey Sermon	1	7	7.0	0	0.4
Kyle Juszczyk	1	0	0.0	0	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	3	9	58	32%	-3.1
Kyle Juszczyk	3	4	35	14%	2.0
Brandon Aiyuk	2	4	32	14%	2.6
Ross Dwelley	2	2	25	7%	0.1
Elijah Mitchell	2	2	19	7%	1.3
Mohamed Sanu	2	3	19	11%	3.4
Charlie Woerner	1	1	4	4%	-0.2
Travis Benjamin	0	3	0	11%	-5.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	6	2	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	2	4	0.0	0
Josh Norman	3	3	0.0	1
Jaquiski Tartt	2	4	0.0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	4	1	0.0	1
D.J. Jones	4	0	1.0	0
Nick Bosa	3	1	1.0	0
Dontae Johnson	3	0	0.0	0
Marcell Harris	1	2	0.0	0
Samson Ebukam	1	1	0.0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	22/31	239	1	0	2	4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rondale Moore	3	38	12.7	0	2.6
James Conner	10	29	2.9	1	-1.8
Chase Edmonds	6	15	2.5	0	-1.0
Christian Kirk	1	11	11.0	0	0.7
Kyler Murray	7	1	0.1	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	6	9	87	1	32%	6.9
Rondale Moore	5	6	59	0	21%	2.5
Christian Kirk	5	5	39	0	18%	1.7
Chase Edmonds	3	4	19	0	14%	-5.9
Maxx Williams	1	1	14	0	4%	1.3
A.J. Green	1	2	13	0	7%	-0.1
James Conner	1	1	8	0	4%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	4	2	0.0	0	0
Antonio Hamilton	4	2	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	5	1	0.0	1	1
Zach Allen	4	1	1.0	0	0
Zaven Collins	2	2	0.0	0	0
Markus Golden	2	1	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Simmons	2	1	0.5	0	1
Jalen Thompson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jace Whittaker	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tanner Vallejo	0	2	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -6
Closing total: 48.5
SF moneyline: +231
ARI moneyline: -266

Cardinals closed -6 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 27 — under by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: SF 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.