2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

TEN -4 ✓O 49 ✓Titans closed -4 and covered, winning by 18.

Tennessee Titans 37–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:19, TEN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:19TEN — JAX JAX ball · 3rd & 10TEN 70%

(14:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-D.Arnold to JAX 30 for 5 yards (24-E.Molden). FUMBLES (24-E.Molden), RECOVERED by TEN-31-K.Byard at JAX 30. 31-K.Byard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:19TEN +11% win prob(14:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-D.Arnold to JAX 30 for 5 yards (24-E.Molden). FUMBLES (24-E.Molden), RECOVERED by TEN-31-K.Byard at JAX 30. 31-K.Byard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 10:01JAX +10% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 86-J.Hollister for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:02JAX +6% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 28-J.McNichols ran ob at 50 for 25 yards (42-A.Wingard).
Q1 · 13:29JAX +6% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 25-J.Robinson left end to TEN 12 for 58 yards (31-K.Byard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Jaguars
Offensive plays	61	67
Total yards	368	454 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.26 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	49%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	43%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.13
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	22	22
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Jaguars outgained Titans 454–368 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

23/33, 273 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-1.6 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

14/22, 197 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.6 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

18 att, 149 yds, 1 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

29 att, 130 yds, 3 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Dan ArnoldTE

6/8 for 64 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -7.2 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Laviska Shenault Jr.WR

1/3 for 58 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	4	5	1:00	Defensive touchdown
2	JAX	JAX 25	7	75	2:39	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 25	7	28	3:16	Punt
4	JAX	JAX 18	5	24	3:19	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 21	12	71	4:50	Touchdown
6	JAX	JAX 30	11	70	5:01	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 25	10	75	4:06	Touchdown
8	JAX	JAX 24	9	42	3:27	Turnover on downs
9	TEN	TEN 43	7	41	1:51	Turnover on downs
10	JAX	JAX 24	5	25	0:31	End of half
11	TEN	TEN 25	13	75	5:12	Touchdown
12	JAX	JAX 18	5	-4	1:52	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 48	8	7	4:20	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 20	11	65	4:46	Touchdown
15	TEN	TEN 25	5	1	1:29	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 30	7	62	2:01	Turnover on downs
17	TEN	TEN 4	6	31	4:24	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 33	4	21	2:00	Turnover on downs
19	TEN	JAX 39	6	39	2:02	Touchdown
20	JAX	JAX 25	11	69	1:54	Interception

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	14/22	197	1	0	3	6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	29	130	4.5	3	3.0
Ryan Tannehill	3	21	7.0	0	4.6
Cameron Batson	2	15	7.5	0	0.6
Chester Rogers	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Jeremy McNichols	1	9	9.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marcus Johnson	3	5	52	0	24%	3.9
A.J. Brown	3	6	38	0	29%	2.6
Anthony Firkser	3	4	33	0	19%	-1.3
Chester Rogers	1	1	26	0	5%	1.8
Jeremy McNichols	2	2	26	0	10%	1.7
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	14	1	5%	2.7
Josh Reynolds	1	1	8	0	5%	0.8
Geoff Swaim	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
David Long Jr.	10	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	8	3	0.0	1	2
Harold Landry	5	2	2.0	0	0
Dane Cruikshank	6	1	0.0	0	0
Kristian Fulton	4	1	0.0	0	1
Jeffery Simmons	3	0	0.0	0	1
Elijah Molden	3	0	0.0	0	0
Janoris Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0	0
John Simon	2	1	0.0	0	0
Joseph Jones	2	1	0.0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	23/33	273	1	1	2	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	18	149	8.3	1	5.8
Trevor Lawrence	7	28	4.0	1	1.3
Carlos Hyde	5	13	2.6	0	-4.1
Jamal Agnew	1	8	8.0	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dan Arnold	6	8	64	0	24%	-7.2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	3	58	0	9%	2.2
Tavon Austin	5	5	54	0	15%	1.3
Jamal Agnew	6	7	41	0	21%	-0.2
Marvin Jones	1	6	25	0	18%	-3.0
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	19	0	3%	0.9
Luke Farrell	1	1	13	0	3%	0.8
Jacob Hollister	1	1	1	1	3%	2.4
James Robinson	1	1	-2	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Davon Hamilton	4	3	0.0	1
Josh Hines-Allen	4	2	0.5	1
K'Lavon Chaisson	3	3	1.0	0
Damien Wilson	4	2	0.0	0
Andrew Wingard	5	0	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	4	1	0.0	0
Myles Jack	1	2	0.0	0
Jihad Ward	1	2	0.0	0
Dawuane Smoot	2	1	1.5	0
Shaquill Griffin	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -4
Closing total: 49
TEN moneyline: -191
JAX moneyline: +170

Titans closed -4 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 49; the game landed 56 — over by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: TEN 7 days · JAX 10 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Urban Meyer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.