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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 10, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 5
It turned at Q1 14:19, 3rd and 10, on Dan Arnold — 11.0 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:19 · 3rd and 10
Dan Arnold
Titans
(14:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-D.Arnold to JAX 30 for 5 yards (24-E.Molden). FUMBLES (24-E.Molden), RECOVERED by TEN-31-K.Byard at JAX 30. 31-K.Byard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Tennessee Titans 37–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:19, Titans +11.0% win probability on one snap.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 7 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
(14:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-D.Arnold to JAX 30 for 5 yards (24-E.Molden). FUMBLES (24-E.Molden), RECOVERED by TEN-31-K.Byard at JAX 30. 31-K.Byard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Kevin Byard's 30-yard touchdown with 14:19 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Kevin Byard30-yd defence TD30-yard touchdownthe defence scored itLead never changed again+77–09 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryJaguars
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 61 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 67 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Jaguars 5.
Jaguars outgained Titans 454-368 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 30.6%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate, 26.9%, is past their previous high of 21.1% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 64.5 points above their season number of 35.5% — they went for it by 2.2 times their own 28.9-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-11.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their -8.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 61 snaps
Jaguars-9.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.7 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 87%
Tendencies room →Titans30.6%leaned — ran early · −15.5 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.64× that swing) · 49 early downs
Jaguars52.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 59.6%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Titans—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.2%.
Jaguars100.0%off script — went for it · +64.5 vs their 35.5%, and they swing ±28.9 week to week (+2.24× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 36%
Tendencies room →Titans12.8%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Jaguars26.9%leaned — got home · +13.4 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 64.5 points above their season mean of 35.5% and 2.2 times their own 28.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · JAX
23/33, 273 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-1.6 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
14/22, 197 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
6.6 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
Receiving · JAX
1/3 for 58 yds, 0 TD
9% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 8.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 31.0 | +8.6 | 77% | 50% | 0% | — | 29 car, 130 yd, 3 TD |
| Trevor LawrenceQB · Starter QB | 21.7 | −7.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 273 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 7 car, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| James RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 21.7 | +4.6 | 68% | 54% | 3% | 0% | 18 car, 149 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, -2 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 14.0 | +1.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/22, 197 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 21 yd |
| Jamal AgnewWR · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | −0.6 | 63% | 64% | 21% | 10% | 1 car, 8 yd · 6/7, 41 yd |
| Dan ArnoldTE · Featured Receiver | 10.4 | −4.2 | 73% | 72% | 24% | 25% | 6/8, 64 yd |
| Tavon AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.4 | +2.4 | 34% | 41% | 15% | 16% | 5/5, 54 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | +6.2 | 59% | 46% | 5% | 5% | 1/1, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Featured Receiver | 8.2 | +0.2 | 75% | 73% | 24% | 19% | 3/5, 52 yd |
| Jacob HollisterTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +3.3 | 21% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | −1.6 | 73% | 59% | 9% | 12% | 1/3, 58 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.8 | −3.7 | 64% | 88% | 29% | 29% | 3/6, 38 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Featured Receiver | 6.3 | −1.7 | 42% | 54% | 19% | 19% | 3/4, 33 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 5.5 | +1.7 | 23% | 46% | 10% | 0% | 1 car, 9 yd · 2/2, 26 yd |
| Chester RogersWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +1.8 | 48% | 58% | 5% | 12% | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/1, 26 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Featured Receiver | 3.5 | −8.9 | 93% | 82% | 18% | 36% | 1/6, 25 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 2.9 | +1.4 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.7 | 11% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.4 | 28% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Cameron BatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 16% | 4% | 0% | — | 2 car, 15 yd |
| Carlos HydeRB | 1.3 | −5.5 | 25% | 26% | 0% | — | 5 car, 13 yd |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 56% | 38% | 5% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:19) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-D.Arnold to JAX 30 for 5 yards (24-E.Molden). FUMBLES (24-E.Molden), RECOVERED by TEN-31-K.Byard at JAX 30. 31-K.Byard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:19 · Jaguars · 3rd & 10 at JAX 25 · gained 5 · -7.09 EP · −17.1% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 177 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 80 yards from the JAX 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans6
Jaguars0Titans7Jaguars0Titans7Jaguars6Titans13Jaguars6Titans14Jaguars6Titans14Jaguars12Titans14Jaguars13Titans20Jaguars13Titans21Jaguars13Titans24Jaguars13Titans30Jaguars13Titans31Jaguars13Titans31Jaguars19Titans37Jaguars19Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Jaguars, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 14/22 | 197 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +6.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 29 | 130 | 4.5 | 3 | +3.0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | +4.6 |
| Cameron Batson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 24% | +3.9 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 29% | +2.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Long Jr. | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Harold Landry | 5 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Cruikshank |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 23/33 | 273 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −1.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_05_TEN_JAX
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Titans closed -4 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 49; the game landed 56 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 19% | −1.3 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 10% | +1.7 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 5% | +2.7 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kristian Fulton | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elijah Molden | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Simon | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
| 149 |
| 8.3 |
| 1 |
| +5.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Carlos Hyde | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Arnold | 6 | 8 | 64 | 0 | 24% | −7.2 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 3 | 58 | 0 | 9% | +2.2 |
| Tavon Austin | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 15% | +1.3 |
| Jamal Agnew | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 21% | −0.2 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 18% | −3.0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Luke Farrell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | +2.4 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davon Hamilton | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Hines-Allen | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Wilson | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Wingard | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rayshawn Jenkins | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Jack | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jihad Ward | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawuane Smoot | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquill Griffin | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
