2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Arizona CardinalsWinner

Cleveland Browns

CLE -3 upsetO 48 ✓23 mph windBrowns closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Arizona Cardinals 37–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:34, ARI +15% win probability on one snap. Played in 23 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:34ARI — CLE CLE ball · 4th & 3ARI 54%

(4:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at ARI 22 for -9 yards (58-J.Hicks).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:34ARI +15% win prob(4:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at ARI 22 for -9 yards (58-J.Hicks).
Q1 · 6:17CLE +10% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to ARI 35 for 20 yards (20-M.Wilson). PENALTY on ARI-93-J.Ledbetter, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ARI 35.
Q1 · 12:42CLE +10% win prob(12:42) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds left guard to CLE 30 for 40 yards (26-G.Williams).
Q2 · 0:03CLE +9% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Browns
Offensive plays	66	55
Total yards	355 (edge)	290
Yards per play	5.4 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	44% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	48%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.46 (edge)	-0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.19
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

19/28, 234 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-6.1 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

20/30, 229 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

14.6 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

16 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

14 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Donovan Peoples-JonesWR

4/5 for 101 yds, 2 TD

16% of team targets · 13.7 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

A.J. GreenWR

5/6 for 79 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	5	4	1:26	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 26	10	88	5:00	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 25	9	43	4:04	Turnover on downs
4	ARI	ARI 22	12	50	4:41	Touchdown
5	CLE	CLE 16	3	2	0:56	Fumble
6	ARI	CLE 18	4	-5	0:51	Turnover on downs
7	CLE	CLE 25	4	2	1:31	Interception
8	ARI	CLE 28	4	-5	2:07	Turnover on downs
9	CLE	CLE 25	10	75	4:18	Touchdown
10	ARI	ARI 29	13	60	4:23	Turnover on downs
11	CLE	CLE 25	7	75	0:43	Touchdown
12	ARI	ARI 25	5	6	2:10	Punt
13	CLE	CLE 33	4	-8	2:10	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 27	4	5	0:45	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 32	5	32	3:29	Fumble
16	ARI	ARI 46	9	54	3:30	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 36	15	57	5:50	Turnover on downs
18	ARI	ARI 7	12	88	7:18	Touchdown
19	CLE	CLE 25	5	8	0:54	Turnover on downs
20	ARI	CLE 33	7	14	3:54	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	20/30	229	4	0	2	14.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	16	71	4.4	0.9
Chase Edmonds	4	46	11.5	2.9
Jonathan Ward	4	14	3.5	1.0
Rondale Moore	3	10	3.3	0.9
Kyler Murray	7	6	0.9	-5.5
Colt McCoy	3	-3	-1.0	-4.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	5	6	79	1	21%	7.4
Christian Kirk	5	8	75	1	29%	6.5
DeAndre Hopkins	3	4	55	2	14%	8.3
Rondale Moore	3	4	16	0	14%	-0.5
Chase Edmonds	3	4	4	0	14%	-0.8
James Conner	1	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Darrell Daniels	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Byron Murphy	5	1	0.0	1
Jalen Thompson	5	1	0.0	0
Markus Golden	4	1	2.0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	2	2.0	0
J.J. Watt	1	4	1.0	1
Isaiah Simmons	4	1	0.0	0
Marco Wilson	5	0	0.0	1
Zaven Collins	2	1	0.0	0
Joe Walker	1	1	0.0	0
Budda Baker	1	1	0.0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	19/28	234	2	1	5	-6.1
Case Keenum	1/3	6	0	0	0	-3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	14	66	4.7	-1.6
Baker Mayfield	3	8	2.7	-1.9
D'Ernest Johnson	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Anthony Schwartz	1	-3	-3.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Donovan Peoples-Jones	4	5	101	2	16%	13.7
Odell Beckham	5	8	79	0	26%	2.2
Demetric Felton	2	2	14	0	6%	0.7
Kareem Hunt	3	3	12	0	10%	-0.9
Anthony Schwartz	2	3	11	0	10%	-2.8
D'Ernest Johnson	1	1	7	0	3%	-0.0
Johnny Stanton	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.5
David Njoku	1	2	6	0	6%	0.2
Austin Hooper	1	3	4	0	10%	1.2
Rashard Higgins	0	3	0	0	10%	-7.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	4	3	0.0	1
Anthony Walker	3	3	0.0	1
John Johnson	2	3	0.0	0
Greedy Williams	5	0	0.0	1
Sheldon Day	2	3	0.0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	2	1.0	0
Troy Hill	3	1	0.0	0
Ronnie Harrison	2	1	0.0	0
Denzel Ward	2	1	0.0	0
Myles Garrett	2	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -3
Closing total: 48
ARI moneyline: +129
CLE moneyline: -143

Browns closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 51 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 23 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: ARI 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 23 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.