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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 6
It turned at Q1 4:34, 4th and 3, on Baker Mayfield — 15.5 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Arizona Cardinals 37–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:34, Cardinals +15.5% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:34 · 4th and 3
Baker Mayfield
Cardinals
(4:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at ARI 22 for -9 yards (58-J.Hicks).
15.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.46 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 10 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(4:34) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at ARI 22 for -9 yards (58-J.Hicks).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian Kirk's 21-yard touchdown catch with 8:40 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Christian Kirk21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Kyler MurrayLead never changed again+77–09 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryBrowns
Cardinals ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 66 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Browns’s 55 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 8, Browns 4.
Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 20 team-games charted in week 6 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 32.8 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
ARI's early-down pass rate, 43.1%, is past their previous low of 48.1% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
CLE's early-down pass rate, 61.0%, is past their previous high of 53.3% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-2.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 0.2 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 66 snaps
Browns-1.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their -4.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 85%
Tendencies room →Cardinals43.1%leaned — ran early · −13.2 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 51 early downs
Browns61.0%leaned — passed early · +9.2 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 129%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals33.3%inside their normal wobble · −14.3 vs their 47.6%, and they swing ±25.5 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Browns100.0%leaned — went for it · +54.6 vs their 45.4%, and they swing ±32.8 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 38%
Tendencies room →Cardinals15.4%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Browns9.4%inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 54.6 points above their season mean of 45.4% and 1.7 times their own 32.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
49 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
19/28, 234 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-6.1 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected
Passing · ARI
20/30, 229 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
14.6 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
4/5 for 101 yds, 2 TD
16% of team targets · 13.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Donovan Peoples-Jones banked 17.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 26.1 | +17.7 | 78% | 74% | 16% | 41% | 4/5, 101 yd, 2 TD |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 25.8 | +4.3 | 91% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 229 yd, 4 TD · 7 car, 6 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 20.5 | +10.5 | 89% | 97% | 14% | 19% | 3/4, 55 yd, 2 TD |
| A.J. GreenWR · Featured Receiver | 18.9 | +6.1 | 91% | 91% | 21% | 37% | 5/6, 79 yd, 1 TD |
| Christian KirkWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.5 | +3.7 | 85% | 81% | 29% | 43% | 5/8, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | +0.5 | 54% | 54% | 26% | 34% | 5/8, 79 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 12.2 | −0.3 | 93% | — | 0% | — | 19/28, 234 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 8 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.8 | −1.1 | 69% | 51% | 10% | 1% | 14 car, 66 yd · 3/3, 12 yd |
| James ConnerRB · Committee Back | 8.1 | −2.2 | 55% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 16 car, 71 yd · 1/1, 0 yd |
| Chase EdmondsRB · Receiving Back | 8.0 | −0.9 | 37% | 53% | 14% | 0% | 4 car, 46 yd · 3/4, 4 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −2.6 | 56% | 56% | 14% | 0% | 3 car, 10 yd · 3/4, 16 yd |
| Demetric FeltonRB | 3.4 | +0.5 | 20% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Anthony SchwartzWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −2.3 | 44% | 41% | 10% | 7% | 1 car, -3 yd · 2/3, 11 yd |
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB | 1.9 | −0.1 | 20% | 28% | 3% | 2% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Johnny StantonRB | 1.6 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −1.2 | 44% | 46% | 6% | 2% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Jonathan WardRB | 1.4 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −3.2 | 75% | 62% | 10% | 4% | 1/3, 4 yd |
| Case KeenumQB | 0.2 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 33% | 34% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Demetrius HarrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 34% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Rashard HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.8 | 63% | 56% | 10% | 10% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Colt McCoyQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:42) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds left guard to CLE 30 for 40 yards (26-G.Williams).
Q1 12:42 · Cardinals · 3rd & 6 at ARI 30 · gained 40 · +3.87 EP · +12.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 93 yards from the ARI 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals6
Browns0Cardinals7Browns0Cardinals13Browns0Cardinals14Browns0Cardinals17Browns0Cardinals20Browns0Cardinals20Browns6Cardinals20Browns7Cardinals23Browns7Cardinals23Browns13Cardinals23Browns14Cardinals29Browns14Cardinals30Browns14Cardinals36Browns14Cardinals37Browns14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/30 | 229 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +14.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Jonathan Ward |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 21% | +7.4 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Murphy | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Thompson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Golden |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/28 | 234 | 2 | 1 | 5 | −6.1 |
| Case Keenum | 1/3 | 6 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_06_ARI_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 51 — over by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 4 |
| 14 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| +1.0 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Colt McCoy | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −4.3 |
| +6.5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 4 | 55 | 2 | 14% | +8.3 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 14% | −0.5 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14% | −0.8 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Watt | 1 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Wilson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zaven Collins | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Walker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | −1.9 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 4 | 5 | 101 | 2 | 16% | +13.7 |
| Odell Beckham | 5 | 8 | 79 | 0 | 26% | +2.2 |
| Demetric Felton | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.9 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 10% | −2.8 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Johnny Stanton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Rashard Higgins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −7.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Walker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| John Johnson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greedy Williams | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sheldon Day | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Hill | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denzel Ward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
