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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Bills165 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:22) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 3 for no gain (98-J.Simmons).
Swing +49.6 for TitansExpected points +3.45 for TitansThe model had Titans 11 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:22BUF +50% win prob(:22) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 3 for no gain (98-J.Simmons).
2nd · 11:31TEN +16% win prob(11:31) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:33TEN +15% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis to TEN 12 for 20 yards (31-K.Byard, 24-E.Molden) [48-B.Dupree].
4th · 3:10TEN +14% win prob(3:10) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:48TEN +13% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 14-S.Diggs. PENALTY on TEN-39-B.Borders, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at TEN 44 - No Play.
2nd · 0:47TEN +13% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 11-C.Beasley for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:04
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 3:10 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:11Tyler Bass·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.Ferguson+33–0
2nd11:40Tyler Bass·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.Ferguson+36–0
4th9:49Randy Bullock·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap M.Cox+331–27
4th3:10Derrick Henry·13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+731–34
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryTitans
Bills4–4Titans
419Total yards363
5.7Yards per play7.3
47%Success rate46%
54%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays6
26First downs15
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Titans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Bills: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.25Titans: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Bills: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.24Titans: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Bills: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.27Titans: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 74 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Titans’s 50 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Titans 5.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Titans14.5%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was BUF's pass rate over expected, 10.3 pts against a season mean of 4.4 pts — and BUF swings 7.1 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%77 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%77 snaps
75Daryl WilliamsT · Every snap100%77 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%77 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%77 snaps
1Emmanuel SandersWR · Full-time92%71 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Full-time87%67 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time81%62 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation79%61 snaps
20Zack MossRB · Heavy rotation55%42 snaps
26Devin SingletaryRB · Rotational45%35 snaps
13Gabriel DavisWR · Rotational34%26 snaps
89Tommy SweeneyTE · Situational14%11 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational5%4 snaps
19Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational5%4 snaps
15Jake KumerowWR · Situational1%1 snap
71Ryan BatesC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Carlos BashamDEA.J. EpenesaDEVernon ButlerDTMatt BreidaRBTommy DoyleT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Mitchell TrubiskyQB
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
76Rodger SaffoldG · Every snap100%53 snaps
72David QuessenberryG · Every snap100%53 snaps
64Nate DavisG · Every snap100%53 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%53 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Full-time81%43 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Heavy rotation79%42 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
2Julio JonesWR · Heavy rotation66%35 snaps
71Kendall LammT · Heavy rotation60%32 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation55%29 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Rotational40%21 snaps
88Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational38%20 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational30%16 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational28%15 snaps
80Chester RogersWR · Rotational28%15 snaps
41Khari BlasingameFB · Situational17%9 snaps
44Tory CarterTE · Situational4%2 snaps
28Jeremy McNicholsRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 4
John SimonDEMonty RiceILBMekhi SargentRBJosh ReynoldsWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen up−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:22) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 3 for no gain (98-J.Simmons).
Q4 0:22 · Bills · 4th & 1 at TEN 3 · gained nothing · -3.45 EP · −38.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 79 yards from the BUF 18 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
46%
Yards
781
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.0667%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3268%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1233%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR8+0.2575%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Titans 22
Bills3Titans0
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Titans 5
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 25
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Bills 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 42
The period ended3 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Titans 37
2nd quarter52 plays
Bills6Titans0
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bills6Titans6
Bills6Titans7
Touchdown3 plays
Bills12Titans7
Bills13Titans7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Titans 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Bills13Titans10
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Bills 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Bills13Titans16
Bills13Titans17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Bills 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.6 seconds
Bills19Titans17
Bills20Titans17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Titans 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Bills23Titans17
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Titans 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bills23Titans23
Bills23Titans24
Touchdown16 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Bills 3
Bills29Titans24
Bills31Titans24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Titans 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter40 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bills31Titans27
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Bills 20
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 37
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Bills31Titans33
Bills31Titans34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Bills 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended12 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Titans 3
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -6
Closing total
53.5
Bills moneyline
-239
Titans moneyline
+210
Bills closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 65 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bills 8 days · Titans 8 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Mike Vrabel
BUF +13% win prob
(5:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left intended for 20-Z.Moss INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard (96-D.Autry) [96-D.Autry] at BUF 27. 31-K.Byard to BUF 11 for 16 yards (79-S.Brown).
3rd · 4:28TEN +11% win prob(4:28) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
