2021 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 18, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Tennessee TitansWinner

BUF -6 upsetO 53.5 ✓Bills closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:22, BUF +50% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:22BUF — TEN BUF ball · 4th & 1BUF 56%

(:22) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 3 for no gain (98-J.Simmons).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:22BUF +50% win prob(:22) 17-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 3 for no gain (98-J.Simmons).
Q2 · 11:31TEN +16% win prob(11:31) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:33TEN +15% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis to TEN 12 for 20 yards (31-K.Byard, 24-E.Molden) [48-B.Dupree].
Q4 · 3:10TEN +14% win prob(3:10) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Titans
Offensive plays	74	50
Total yards	419 (edge)	363
Yards per play	5.7	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.12	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	74%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.27 (edge)
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

35/47, 353 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

14.0 expected points added · +13.9% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/29, 216 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

7.0 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

20 att, 143 yds, 3 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

5 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Emmanuel SandersWR

5/8 for 91 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

7/9 for 91 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 10	8	12	2:34	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 21	13	74	6:19	Turnover on downs
3	TEN	TEN 21	5	4	1:03	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 21	4	-8	2:10	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 29	3	8	1:51	Interception
6	BUF	TEN 48	10	41	4:27	Turnover on downs
7	TEN	TEN 24	3	76	0:16	Touchdown
8	BUF	BUF 28	9	57	3:26	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 21	8	54	2:50	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:10	Interception
11	TEN	BUF 11	3	11	0:31	Touchdown
12	BUF	BUF 25	12	80	3:43	Touchdown
13	TEN	TEN 19	2	6	0:40	End of half
14	BUF	BUF 18	10	48	4:11	Turnover on downs
15	TEN	TEN 33	14	67	6:26	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 25	11	43	3:56	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 35	10	55	5:42	Turnover on downs
18	BUF	BUF 25	8	5	1:44	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 30	9	70	4:56	Touchdown
20	BUF	BUF 18	9	79	2:44	Defensive touchdown
21	TEN	TEN 3	1	0	0:21	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	35/47	353	3	1	3	14.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devin Singletary	5	27	5.4	1.0
Josh Allen	9	26	2.9	-5.2
Zack Moss	8	24	3.0	-1.6
Isaiah McKenzie	1	5	5.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	5	8	91	0	18%	3.8
Stefon Diggs	9	11	89	1	24%	9.7
Cole Beasley	7	9	88	1	20%	8.4
Gabe Davis	2	2	25	0	4%	1.3
Dawson Knox	3	3	25	0	7%	0.8
Devin Singletary	5	5	16	0	11%	-0.7
Zack Moss	2	4	15	0	9%	-5.8
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.3
Tommy Sweeney	1	1	1	1	2%	1.3
Jake Kumerow	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	6	2	0	0
Taron Johnson	1	3	0	0
Jordan Poyer	3	1	1	1
Levi Wallace	3	0	0	1
Micah Hyde	3	0	0	0
Jake Kumerow	3	0	0	0
Matt Milano	1	1	0	0
Harrison Phillips	2	0	0	0
Gregory Rousseau	2	0	0	0
Star Lotulelei	1	1	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	18/29	216	0	1	0	7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	20	143	7.2	3	4.1
Ryan Tannehill	2	3	1.5	1	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	7	9	91	36%	7.1
Julio Jones	3	5	59	20%	-1.7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	3	3	27	12%	2.8
Derrick Henry	2	3	13	12%	0.1
Anthony Firkser	1	1	11	4%	2.3
Geoff Swaim	1	2	8	8%	0.8
Chester Rogers	1	1	7	4%	0.3
Marcus Johnson	0	1	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Long Jr.	8	5	0.0	0
Amani Hooker	6	3	0.0	0
Rashaan Evans	4	4	0.0	0
Harold Landry	5	3	2.0	0
Elijah Molden	5	3	0.0	0
Jeffery Simmons	2	2	1.0	0
Chris Jackson	4	0	0.0	1
Caleb Farley	2	0	0.0	0
Bud Dupree	2	0	0.0	1
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -6
Closing total: 53.5
BUF moneyline: -239
TEN moneyline: +210

Bills closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 65 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: BUF 8 days · TEN 8 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike Vrabel