2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Ford Field

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Detroit Lions

CIN -3.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓DomeBengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Cincinnati Bengals 34–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:31, DET +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:31CIN — DET CIN ball · 3rd & 5CIN 73%

(8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 25-C.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:31DET +8% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 25-C.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:33CIN +7% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at CIN 41. 24-A.Oruwariye pushed ob at CIN 23 for 18 yards (1-J.Chase). PENALTY on DET-21-T.Walker, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 23.
Q2 · 0:23DET +6% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at DET 26 for 34 yards (39-J.Jacobs) [90-T.Flowers].
Q2 · 1:32DET +6% win prob(1:32) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 24 for 11 yards (27-B.Price, 51-J.Woods).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Lions
Offensive plays	65	61
Total yards	401 (edge)	230
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	3.8
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	45% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	57%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

19/29, 271 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

10.5 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

28/42, 202 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

18 att, 94 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

13 att, 24 yds, 1 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

4/6 for 97 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · DET

T.J. HockensonTE

8/11 for 74 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 23	5	4	2:14	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 39	9	61	4:20	Touchdown
3	DET	DET 21	5	7	2:04	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 23	6	15	4:01	Interception
5	DET	CIN 38	2	-10	0:23	Interception
6	CIN	CIN 23	4	12	2:10	Punt
7	DET	DET 28	9	34	4:06	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	CIN 39	4	-2	2:21	Punt
9	DET	DET 6	10	20	5:17	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 25	4	7	1:17	Punt
11	DET	DET 28	4	-4	0:26	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 24	9	56	1:21	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	CIN 25	10	75	4:20	Touchdown
14	DET	DET 31	5	9	1:27	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 20	11	58	5:35	Turnover on downs
16	DET	DET 21	6	35	1:08	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 5	9	95	4:52	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 25	14	58	4:02	Turnover on downs
19	CIN	DET 44	7	12	3:20	Touchdown
20	DET	DET 25	15	77	3:01	Touchdown
21	CIN	DET 45	7	12	2:15	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 95 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	19/29	271	3	1	2	10.5
Brandon Allen	1/1	7	1	0	0	1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	18	94	5.2	0.7
Joe Burrow	5	20	4.0	1.8
Chris Evans	4	18	4.5	-0.1
Trayveon Williams	6	13	2.2	-1.5
Brandon Allen	3	-3	-1.0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	4	6	97	0	21%	1.9
Joe Mixon	5	6	59	1	21%	5.0
Chris Evans	3	3	49	1	10%	5.7
Tee Higgins	3	6	44	0	21%	2.7
C.J. Uzomah	3	3	15	1	10%	2.1
Auden Tate	1	1	7	1	3%	1.7
Tyler Boyd	1	3	7	0	10%	-1.2
Drew Sample	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Vonn Bell	5	2	0	1
Logan Wilson	5	1	1	1
Chidobe Awuzie	5	0	0	1
Joe Bachie	3	2	0	1
Akeem Davis-Gaither	5	0	0	1
Chris Evans	3	0	0	0
Jalen Davis	1	2	0	0
Jessie Bates	3	0	0	0
Wyatt Ray	1	2	0	0
Mike Hilton	3	0	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	28/42	202	0	1	1	-7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	13	24	1.8	1	-4.7
Jamaal Williams	4	11	2.8	0	2.0
Jared Goff	1	1	1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	8	11	74	28%	-0.7
D'Andre Swift	5	7	43	18%	0.9
Kalif Raymond	6	7	37	18%	2.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown	5	7	26	18%	-2.5
Tom Kennedy	1	1	15	3%	1.1
KhaDarel Hodge	2	4	9	10%	-1.2
Jamaal Williams	1	2	-2	5%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Derrick Barnes	6	3	0	1
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	6	1	0	0
Alex Anzalone	3	4	0	0
Jerry Jacobs	5	1	0	1
A.J. Parker	3	2	0	0
Charles Harris	4	1	0	0
Michael Brockers	2	2	0	0
Tracy Walker III	3	1	0	1
Trey Flowers	2	1	0	0
Amani Oruwariye	1	1	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3.5
Closing total: 46.5
CIN moneyline: -192
DET moneyline: +171

Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 45 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: CIN 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Dan Campbell