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Cincinnati Bengals 34, Lions 11 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:31, 3rd and 5, on Chris Evans — 7.9 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:31 · 3rd and 5
Chris Evans
Bengals
(8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 25-C.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Cincinnati Bengals 34–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:31, Bengals +7.9% win probability on one snap.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Amani OruwariyeLionsQ1 2:33(2:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at CIN 41. 24-A.Oruwariye pushed ob at CIN 23 for 18 yards (1-J.Chase). PENALTY on DET-21-T.Walker, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 23.
6.7pts
Ja'Marr ChaseBengalsQ2 0:23(:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at DET 26 for 34 yards (39-J.Jacobs) [90-T.Flowers].
6.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Lions at 1 chunk play.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bengals won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Lions at 5 of 14 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Bengals168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 25-C.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −7.9 for LionsExpected points −3.27 for LionsThe model had Lions 14 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:31DET +8% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 25-C.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:33CIN +7% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 24-A.Oruwariye at CIN 41. 24-A.Oruwariye pushed ob at CIN 23 for 18 yards (1-J.Chase). PENALTY on DET-21-T.Walker, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 23.
2nd · 0:23DET +6% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at DET 26 for 34 yards (39-J.Jacobs) [90-T.Flowers].
2nd · 1:32DET +6% win prob(1:32) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-S.Daly. 16-T.Irwin to CIN 24 for 11 yards (27-B.Price, 51-J.Woods).
3rd · 10:49DET +5% win prob(10:49) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:21CIN +4% win prob(2:21) 16-J.Goff sacked at CIN 48 for -10 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). Penalty on DET-88-T.Hockenson, Offensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Evans's 24-yard touchdown catch with 8:31 left in the 1st put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:31Chris Evans·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+77–0
2nd0:04Evan McPherson·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+310–0
3rd10:49Joe Mixon·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+717–0
3rd3:43Evan McPherson·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+320–0
4th12:43C.J. Uzomah·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+727–0
4th8:40Austin Seibert·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+327–3
Bengals ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Bengals: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.16Lions: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Bengals: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.17Lions: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.16Lions: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 65 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Lions’s 61 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Lions 2.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 6Against their seasonFourth Down
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.5 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Lions13.5%
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 35.2 points above their season mean of 31.5% and 1.7 times their own 20.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
71Riley ReiffT · Every snap100%72 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%72 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%72 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Full-time82%59 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Full-time82%59 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Heavy rotation79%57 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation69%50 snaps
63Trey HillC · Heavy rotation68%49 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation57%41 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Heavy rotation54%39 snaps
19Auden TateWR · Rotational33%24 snaps
79Jackson CarmanG · Rotational32%23 snaps
25Chris EvansRB · Situational22%16 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Situational18%13 snaps
8Brandon AllenQB · Situational18%13 snaps
32Trayveon WilliamsRB · Situational17%12 snaps
16Trenton IrwinWR · Situational15%11 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Situational14%10 snaps
75Isaiah PrinceT · Situational14%10 snaps
Inactive · 4
Tre FlowersCBDarius HodgeDETyler ShelvinNTMike ThomasWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jonah WilliamsT
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%63 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%63 snaps
72Halapoulivaati VaitaiG · Every snap100%63 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Every snap100%63 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%63 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Full-time89%56 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Full-time83%52 snaps
18Khadarel HodgeWR · Full-time83%52 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
32D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation78%49 snaps
30Jamaal WilliamsRB · Rotational30%19 snaps
80Darren FellsTE · Situational24%15 snaps
13Geronimo AllisonWR · Situational21%13 snaps
85Tom KennedyWR · Situational13%8 snaps
45Jason CabindaFB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Mark GilbertCBDaryl WorleyCBJashon CornellDEJessie LemonierDEEric BanksDTTrinity BensonWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 25-C.Evans for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 8:31 · Bengals · 3rd & 5 at DET 24 · gained 24 · +3.27 EP · +9.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 95 yards from the CIN 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
38%
Yards
628
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.2076%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.4351%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4667%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.0225%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2933%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Lions 26
Bengals6Lions0
Bengals7Lions0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Lions 24
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 28
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 33
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Bengals 26
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Bengals 38
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Bengals 47
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 6 to the Lions 28
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 32
Punt5 plays
Bengals10Lions0
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Lions 20
3rd quarter41 plays
Bengals16Lions0
Bengals17Lions0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Lions 40
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 40
Bengals20Lions0
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Lions 22
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Bengals 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 5 to the Bengals 25
4th quarter56 plays
Bengals26Lions0
Bengals27Lions0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Lions 2
Bengals27Lions3
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bengals 17
Bengals33Lions3
Bengals34Lions3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Lions 7
Bengals34Lions9
Bengals34Lions11
Touchdown16 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bengals 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Lions 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -3.5
Closing total
46.5
Bengals moneyline
-192
Lions moneyline
+171
Bengals closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 45 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Dan Campbell
1st · 2:02CIN +4% win prob(2:02) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown to CIN 23 for 25 yards (24-V.Bell; 55-L.Wilson) [94-S.Hubbard]. Cincinnati challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson (24-V.Bell) [94-S.Hubbard] at CIN 23. 55-L.Wilson to CIN 23 for no gain (88-T.Hockenson).
1st · 12:55DET +4% win prob(12:55) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to CIN 39, Center-47-S.Daly. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 39 for no gain (35-G.Igwebuike).
