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polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:15 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 35 at New England Patriots 29. Final.
Cowboys -3.5 ✓O 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 6
Dallas Cowboys 35, Patriots 29 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:36, 2nd and 15, on Trevon Diggs — 45.4 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:36 · 2nd and 15
Trevon Diggs
Cowboys
(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at NE 42. 7-T.Diggs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7-Diggs now has a Int in 6 consecutive games to start the season, ties NFL record (Landry, Russell, Wilburn).
Cowboys closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Dallas Cowboys 35–29. Biggest swing: Q4 2:36, Cowboys +45.4% win probability on one snap.
45.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kendrick BournePatriotsQ4 2:21(2:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 84-K.Bourne for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
35.2pts
CeeDee LambCowboysOT 3:59(3:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
32.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Patriots at 7 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Cowboys177 of 191 plays carry both curves
(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at NE 42. 7-T.Diggs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7-Diggs now has a Int in 6 consecutive games to start the season, ties NFL
Swing −45.4 for PatriotsExpected points −8.06 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 14 points higher than the market did.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:36DAL +45% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at NE 42. 7-T.Diggs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7-Diggs now has a Int in 6 consecutive games to start the season, ties NFL record (Landry, Russell, Wilburn).
4th · 2:21NE +35% win prob(2:21) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 84-K.Bourne for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 3:59NE +32% win prob(3:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:38DAL +30% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 17-M.Turner. PENALTY on DAL-52-C.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NE 40. Penalty on DAL-52-C.Williams, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 0:31NE +22% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb to NE 31 for 24 yards (2-J.Mills).
4th · 2:47DAL +19% win prob(2:47) 2-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
CeeDee Lamb's 35-yard touchdown catch with 3:59 left in overtime put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:36Trevon Diggs·42-yd defence TD42-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · two-point no good+626–21
4th2:21Kendrick Bourne·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones · two-point good+826–29
4th0:24Greg Zuerlein·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+329–29
Overtime3:59CeeDee Lamb·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+635–29
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryPatriots
Cowboys5–3Patriots
567Total yards341
6.8Yards per play7.0
49%Success rate49%
23%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
10Explosive plays7
31First downs16
0Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Cowboys ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.01Patriots: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.43Cowboys: +0.43 expected points added per play
−0.14Patriots: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Cowboys: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.10Patriots: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 83 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Patriots’s 49 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Patriots 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.6 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Patriots7.5%
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0% against a season mean of 30.0% — and NE swings 31.1 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Jones pass−55% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at NE 42. 7-T.Diggs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7-Diggs now has a Int in 6 consecutive games to start the season, ties NFL record (Landry, Russell, Wilburn).
Q4 2:36 · Patriots · 2nd & 15 at NE 36 · gained nothing · -8.06 EP · −54.9% win probability
175 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 95 yards from the DAL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
904
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1983%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.2237%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.1158%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR14+0.1629%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR5-1.2720%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 34
Cowboys0Patriots6
Cowboys0Patriots7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cowboys 4
Cowboys6Patriots7
Cowboys7Patriots7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Patriots 1
Cowboys7Patriots13
Cowboys7Patriots14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cowboys 20
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Patriots 40
2nd quarter42 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 16
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cowboys 25
Cowboys10Patriots14
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Patriots 11
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 35
Offense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 21
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 30
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 42 to the Cowboys 49
Cowboys16Patriots14
Cowboys17Patriots14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Patriots 1
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 41
4th quarter55 plays
Cowboys20Patriots14
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Patriots 27
Cowboys20Patriots20
Cowboys20Patriots21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cowboys 1
No good10 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Patriots 33
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Cowboys26Patriots21
Touchdown4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cowboys26Patriots27
Cowboys26Patriots29
Touchdown3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Cowboys29Patriots29
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Patriots 31
The period ended3 plays
Overtime16 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 46
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.5 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Cowboys35Patriots29
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Patriots 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cowboyscategory by categoryPatriots
Cowboys0
Patriots6
