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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 6
It turned at Q2 13:34, 2nd and 10, on Davante Adams — 9.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 24–14. Biggest swing: Q2 13:34, Packers +9.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:34 · 2nd and 10
Davante Adams
Packers
(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 22 for 32 yards (33-Ja.Johnson).
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.07 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Packers at 5 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Bears at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 16.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 22 for 32 yards (33-Ja.Johnson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mason Crosby's 39-yard field goal with 4:13 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Mason Crosby39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap H.BradleyLead never changed again+310–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryBears
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 53 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Bears’s 57 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Bears 2.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.8% in week 5 against 56.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points. · +0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Packers3.6 ptsright on their number · −0.1 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 53 snaps
Bears-4.8 ptsright on their number · −2.3 vs their -2.5 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 82%
Tendencies room →Packers46.7%leaned — ran early · −8.9 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 45 early downs
Bears56.8%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 54.9%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 154%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
Bears—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.3%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 41%
Tendencies room →Packers13.9%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bears14.3%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
GB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 46.7%, 8.9 points below their season mean of 55.6% and 1.3 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
17/23, 195 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.8 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
16/27, 174 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.2 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Aaron Rodgers banked 8.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 23.7 | +8.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/23, 195 yd, 2 TD · 7 car, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 21.0 | +6.6 | 59% | 64% | 19% | 0% | 13 car, 76 yd · 4/4, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| Khalil HerbertRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.2 | +2.0 | 89% | 72% | 12% | 0% | 19 car, 97 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 15 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.5 | +1.4 | 93% | 83% | 32% | 21% | 5/8, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 13.3 | −2.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/27, 174 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 43 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | +3.9 | 85% | 86% | 24% | 36% | 4/5, 89 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Featured Receiver | 11.7 | −0.4 | 85% | 82% | 24% | 32% | 3/5, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.3 | −3.9 | 92% | 78% | 28% | 49% | 4/7, 53 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | −3.3 | 79% | 69% | 20% | 10% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/5, 49 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 5.9 | +0.7 | 42% | 36% | 0% | — | 11 car, 59 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.5 | 68% | 50% | 10% | 3% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −2.0 | 63% | 61% | 14% | 16% | 2/3, 10 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | +1.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 48% | 50% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 25% | 21% | 5% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Artavis PierceRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jesper HorstedTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Damiere ByrdWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 25% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jakeem GrantWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kylin HillRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tyler DavisTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:03) 28-A.Dillon left guard pushed ob at CHI 22 for 36 yards (4-E.Jackson).
Q2 8:03 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 42 · gained 36 · +2.37 EP · +11.1% win probability
143 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 90 yards from the GB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Bears6Packers0Bears7Packers6Bears7Packers7Bears7Packers10Bears7Packers16Bears7Packers17Bears7Packers17Bears13Packers17Bears14Packers23Bears14Packers24Bears14Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/23 | 195 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +6.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 76 | 5.8 | 0 | +2.3 |
| A.J. Dillon | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 4 | 5 | 89 | 0 | 24% | +5.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 16/27 | 174 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −4.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_06_GB_CHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 44; the game landed 38 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 7 |
| 19 |
| 2.7 |
| 1 |
| +2.2 |
| +3.5 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 24% | +2.3 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +1.6 |
| Robert Tonyan | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 14% | −1.2 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kingsley Keke | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Black | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Adrian Amos | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 1 | +4.9 |
| Justin Fields | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 28% | +1.2 |
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 20% | +3.0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 32% | +1.9 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −0.1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Jackson | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tashaun Gipson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Mack | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Quinn | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Crawford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Trevathan | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
