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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Packers145 of 158 plays carry both curves
(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 22 for 32 yards (33-Ja.Johnson).
Swing −9.2 for BearsExpected points −2.61 for BearsThe model had Bears 23 points higher than the market did.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:34CHI +9% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 22 for 32 yards (33-Ja.Johnson).
2nd · 4:13CHI +8% win prob(4:13) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
1st · 6:06GB +8% win prob(6:06) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers sacked at GB 21 for -7 yards (94-R.Quinn).
1st · 8:09CHI +7% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at GB 27 for 20 yards (31-A.Amos).
1st · 12:10GB +7% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers sacked at CHI 45 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack).
4th · 7:15CHI +7% win prob(7:15) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at CHI 21 for 41 yards (4-E.Jackson).
4th · 8:49
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 39-yard field goal with 4:13 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Packers: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.02Bears: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Packers: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.07Bears: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Packers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.17Bears: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 53 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Bears’s 57 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Bears 2.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 34.8% in week 5 against 56.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Bears14.3%
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 46.7%, 8.9 points below their season mean of 55.6% and 1.3 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
70Royce NewmanT · Every snap100%59 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%59 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%59 snaps
77Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%59 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Full-time93%55 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Full-time85%50 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time85%50 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Heavy rotation68%40 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Heavy rotation63%37 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
28A.J. DillonRB · Rotational42%25 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Rotational39%23 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational25%15 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Situational20%12 snaps
8Amari RodgersWR · Situational10%6 snaps
71Josh MyersC · Situational7%4 snaps
88Juwann WinfreeWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Kevin KingCBJack HeflinDTVernon ScottFSIsaiah McDuffieILBDennis KellyT
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dillon left+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:03) 28-A.Dillon left guard pushed ob at CHI 22 for 36 yards (4-E.Jackson).
Q2 8:03 · Packers · 1st & 10 at GB 42 · gained 36 · +2.37 EP · +11.1% win probability
143 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 90 yards from the GB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
600
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0365%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2752%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1739%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0946%
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.1440%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Bears 36
Packers0Bears6
Packers0Bears7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Packers 1
Drive ended4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 28
Drive ended2 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 40
Punt1 play
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Packers 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 35
2nd quarter42 plays
Packers6Bears7
Packers7Bears7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 30
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Packers10Bears7
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Bears 9
Punt13 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Packers 33
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 47
Packers16Bears7
Packers17Bears7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Bears 12
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Packers 40
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 13 to the Packers 28
4th quarter44 plays
Packers17Bears13
Packers17Bears14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Packers 5
Packers23Bears14
Packers24Bears14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Bears 6
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Packers 32
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Bears 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -5.5
Closing total
44
Packers moneyline
-228
Bears moneyline
+201
Packers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 44; the game landed 38 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Packers 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Matt Nagy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
CHI +7% win prob
(8:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 11-D.Mooney for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:32CHI +6% win prob(7:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 84-M.Goodwin. PENALTY on GB-24-I.Yiadom, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at GB 27 - No Play.
