2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Soldier Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

Chicago Bears

GB -5.5 ✓U 44 ✓Packers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Green Bay Packers 24–14. Biggest swing: Q2 13:34, CHI +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:34GB — CHI GB ball · 2nd & 10CHI 52%

(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 22 for 32 yards (33-Ja.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:34CHI +9% win prob(13:34) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to CHI 22 for 32 yards (33-Ja.Johnson).
Q2 · 4:13CHI +8% win prob(4:13) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
Q1 · 6:06GB +8% win prob(6:06) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers sacked at GB 21 for -7 yards (94-R.Quinn).
Q1 · 8:09CHI +7% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at GB 27 for 20 yards (31-A.Amos).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Bears
Offensive plays	53	57
Total yards	328 (edge)	277
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	55% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	53%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	2/7	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	20
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

17/23, 195 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.8 expected points added · +12.8% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

16/27, 174 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.2 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

19 att, 97 yds, 1 TD

4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

13 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

4/5 for 89 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

4/7 for 53 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 24	8	26	3:51	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 20	9	58	4:24	Touchdown
3	GB	GB 25	5	0	2:20	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 15	8	38	3:12	Interception
5	GB	GB 20	13	65	6:14	Touchdown
6	CHI	CHI 29	5	-3	1:56	Punt
7	GB	GB 42	7	48	3:54	Turnover on downs
8	CHI	CHI 32	11	25	3:58	Punt
9	GB	GB 5	1	0	0:11	End of half
10	CHI	CHI 28	6	19	2:06	Punt
11	GB	GB 10	11	86	6:54	Touchdown
12	CHI	CHI 25	10	35	3:35	Punt
13	GB	GB 13	6	5	2:25	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 20	11	90	6:16	Touchdown
15	GB	GB 25	9	75	4:14	Touchdown
16	CHI	CHI 42	8	15	2:16	Turnover on downs
17	GB	GB 48	7	23	2:14	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	17/23	195	2	0	3	6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	13	76	5.8	0	2.3
A.J. Dillon	11	59	5.4	0	-0.8
Aaron Rodgers	7	19	2.7	1	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	4	5	89	0	24%	5.4
Aaron Jones	4	4	34	1	19%	3.5
Allen Lazard	3	5	27	1	24%	2.3
Marcedes Lewis	2	2	17	0	10%	1.4
Amari Rodgers	1	1	14	0	5%	1.6
Robert Tonyan	2	3	10	0	14%	-1.2
Josiah Deguara	1	1	4	0	5%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	4	2	0.0	0	0
Rasul Douglas	5	0	0.0	0	0
Dean Lowry	4	1	1.0	0	0
Kingsley Keke	3	1	0.0	0	0
Henry Black	4	0	0.0	0	0
Rashan Gary	2	1	0.0	0	0
Darnell Savage	3	0	0.0	1	1
Adrian Amos	3	0	0.0	0	0
Eric Stokes	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	3	0	2.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	16/27	174	1	1	4	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Khalil Herbert	19	97	5.1	1	4.9
Justin Fields	6	43	7.2	0	0.6
Cole Kmet	1	0	0.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	4	7	53	0	28%	1.2
Cole Kmet	4	5	49	0	20%	3.0
Darnell Mooney	5	8	45	1	32%	1.9
Khalil Herbert	2	3	15	0	12%	-0.1
Marquise Goodwin	1	1	12	0	4%	0.5
Damiere Byrd	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	5	6	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	5	2	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	4	1	0.0	0
Kindle Vildor	2	2	0.0	0
Khalil Mack	3	1	1.0	0
Robert Quinn	2	1	1.0	0
Xavier Crawford	2	1	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	2	1	0.0	0
Danny Trevathan	1	2	0.0	0
Alec Ogletree	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -5.5
Closing total: 44
GB moneyline: -228
CHI moneyline: +201

Packers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 44; the game landed 38 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: GB 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.