2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston Texans

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -10.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓Colts closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 28.

Indianapolis Colts 31–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:59, IND +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:59HOU — IND IND ball · 3rd & 3IND 81%

(1:59) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-P.Campbell for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-8-T.Brooks was injured during the play. He is Out.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:59IND +10% win prob(1:59) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-P.Campbell for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-8-T.Brooks was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q3 · 12:44HOU +8% win prob(12:44) 10-D.Mills pass short middle intended for 12-N.Collins INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Leonard at HOU 32. 53-D.Leonard to HOU 28 for 4 yards (12-N.Collins).
Q1 · 12:44HOU +5% win prob(12:44) 2-C.Wentz sacked at IND 33 for -6 yards (52-J.Greenard).
Q1 · 5:57HOU +3% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at 50 for -9 yards (99-D.Buckner).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Colts
Offensive plays	74	47
Total yards	353	389 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	8.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.22	0.28 (edge)
Success rate	41% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	62%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.30 (edge)
Third downs	9/17 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	5	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.22.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

29/43, 243 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-9.0 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

11/20, 223 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

14 att, 145 yds, 2 TD

8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Mark IngramRB

18 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

9/13 for 89 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

4/4 for 80 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 26	5	9	1:32	Punt
2	IND	IND 27	5	15	1:56	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 16	12	44	6:22	Fumble
4	IND	IND 8	8	92	3:18	Touchdown
5	HOU	HOU 36	6	25	1:57	Punt
6	IND	IND 18	6	54	1:56	Turnover on downs
7	HOU	HOU 25	14	62	6:43	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 28	9	37	4:27	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 5	9	41	1:45	Fumble
10	IND	IND 4	1	0	0:04	End of half
11	IND	IND 32	5	0	2:16	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 21	1	0	0:08	Interception
13	IND	HOU 28	3	28	0:46	Touchdown
14	HOU	HOU 17	8	28	2:57	Punt
15	IND	IND 12	5	88	2:16	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 25	15	53	6:45	Turnover on downs
17	IND	IND 22	4	3	0:56	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 26	7	37	3:48	Fumble
19	IND	IND 37	10	63	5:21	Touchdown
20	HOU	HOU 22	7	55	1:26	Interception
21	IND	IND 15	4	9	2:11	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 40	2	-1	1:10	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 92 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	29/43	243	0	2	2	-9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mark Ingram	18	73	4.1	-0.9
Phillip Lindsay	7	39	5.6	-1.2
David Johnson	2	7	3.5	-5.5
Davis Mills	2	5	2.5	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	9	13	89	31%	2.9
Nico Collins	4	6	44	14%	-2.9
Jordan Akins	4	6	41	14%	-0.6
Phillip Lindsay	2	2	15	5%	1.0
David Johnson	1	2	14	5%	-0.0
Chris Moore	4	5	14	12%	-3.5
Chris Conley	1	2	10	5%	-0.4
Mark Ingram	2	2	8	5%	0.0
Pharaoh Brown	2	3	8	7%	-1.5
Rex Burkhead	0	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kamu Grugier-Hill	4	3	0.0
Tavierre Thomas	3	2	0.0
Jonathan Greenard	4	1	2.0
Zach Cunningham	3	1	0.0
Lonnie Johnson	2	2	0.0
Whitney Mercilus	1	1	0.0
Terrance Mitchell	2	0	0.0
Nico Collins	1	0	0.0
Terrence Brooks	1	0	0.0
Christian Kirksey	1	0	0.0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	11/20	223	2	0	2	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	14	145	10.4	2	8.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	13	3.3	0	1.0
Marlon Mack	5	12	2.4	0	-1.9
Michael Pittman	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3
Carson Wentz	2	1	0.5	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	4	4	80	0	22%	6.7
Parris Campbell	1	1	51	1	6%	5.0
Michael Pittman	2	3	35	0	17%	1.5
Mo Alie-Cox	1	3	28	1	17%	0.7
Jonathan Taylor	1	2	13	0	11%	0.7
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	9	0	11%	-1.5
Ashton Dulin	1	1	7	0	6%	0.0
Jack Doyle	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.4
Zach Pascal	0	1	0	0	6%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kenny Moore	10	0	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	4	5	0.0	0	0
Khari Willis	4	4	1.0	0	1
Shaquille Leonard	5	1	0.0	1	1
Grover Stewart	1	4	0.0	0	0
Julian Blackmon	5	0	0.0	0	0
Xavier Rhodes	2	2	0.0	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	4	0	0.0	0	0
DeForest Buckner	2	1	1.0	0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -10.5
Closing total: 43.5
HOU moneyline: +363
IND moneyline: -442

Colts closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: HOU 7 days · IND 6 days
Coaches: David Culley vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.