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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 6
It turned at Q1 1:59, 3rd and 3, on Parris Campbell — 10.1 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Indianapolis Colts 31–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:59, Colts +10.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:59 · 3rd and 3
Parris Campbell
Colts
(1:59) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-P.Campbell for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-8-T.Brooks was injured during the play. He is Out.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 5 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Colts won this one — +0.30 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.28 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(1:59) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-P.Campbell for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-8-T.Brooks was injured during the play. He is Out.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Parris Campbell's 51-yard touchdown catch with 1:59 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Parris Campbell51-yd TD catch51-yard touchdown catchfrom Carson WentzLead never changed again+70–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Colts ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 74 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Colts’s 47 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Colts 4.
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.28 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
HOU's sack or hit rate, 21.7%, is past their previous high of 15.8% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
23 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-5.7 ptsright on their number · −1.9 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 74 snaps
Colts-6.3 ptsright on their number · −1.7 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 89%
Tendencies room →Texans54.5%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 53.6%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 55 early downs
Colts41.7%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 51.0%, and they swing ±14.9 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Texans33.3%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 32.4%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Colts33.3%inside their normal wobble · −18.3 vs their 51.7%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Texans21.7%leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Colts10.9%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
HOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.7%, 9.9 points above their season mean of 11.8% and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
47 dressed · 8 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 8
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
29/43, 243 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-9.0 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected
Passing · IND
11/20, 223 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
6.7 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jonathan Taylor banked 14.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Committee Back | 28.8 | +14.0 | 65% | 61% | 11% | 0% | 14 car, 145 yd, 2 TD · 1/2, 13 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.9 | −2.6 | 91% | 89% | 31% | 58% | 9/13, 89 yd |
| Carson WentzQB · Starter QB | 17.0 | +6.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 11/20, 223 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 1 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | +9.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| T.Y. HiltonWR · Featured Receiver | 12.0 | +5.5 | 50% | 65% | 22% | 27% | 4/4, 80 yd |
| Mark IngramRB · Bell Cow Back | 10.1 | −0.8 | 44% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 18 car, 73 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.8 | +2.3 | 50% | 39% | 17% | 23% | 1/3, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Nico CollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.4 | −0.9 | 57% | 63% | 14% | 19% | 4/6, 44 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | −0.6 | 43% | 59% | 14% | 14% | 4/6, 41 yd |
| Phillip LindsayRB | 7.4 | +1.4 | 15% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 7 car, 39 yd · 2/2, 15 yd |
| Davis MillsQB · Starter QB | 6.2 | −7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/43, 243 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.1 | 96% | 96% | 17% | 19% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/3, 35 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −1.3 | 65% | 65% | 12% | 4% | 4/5, 14 yd |
| Nyheim Miller-HinesRB · Receiving Back | 3.2 | −1.6 | 23% | 22% | 11% | 2% | 4 car, 13 yd · 1/2, 9 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −1.8 | 53% | 46% | 7% | 5% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Chris ConleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −0.7 | 43% | 37% | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 10 yd |
| Ashton DulinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 27% | 26% | 6% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Marlon MackRB | 1.2 | −1.1 | 19% | 17% | 0% | — | 5 car, 12 yd |
| David JohnsonRB | 1.1 | −2.6 | 43% | 59% | 5% | 3% | 2 car, 7 yd · 1/2, 14 yd |
| Rex BurkheadRB | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andre RobertsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jack DoyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 65% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 85% | 78% | 6% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:59) 2-C.Wentz pass deep left to 1-P.Campbell for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-8-T.Brooks was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q1 1:59 · Colts · 3rd & 3 at IND 49 · gained 51 · +4.97 EP · +13.2% win probability
151 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 92 yards from the IND 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Texans0
Colts6Texans0Colts7Texans0Colts10Texans3Colts10Texans3Colts16Texans3Colts17Texans3Colts23Texans3Colts24Texans3Colts30Texans3Colts31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 29/43 | 243 | 0 | 2 | 2 | −9.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | −1.2 |
| David Johnson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 9 | 13 | 89 | 0 | 31% | +2.9 |
| Nico Collins | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamu Grugier-Hill | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavierre Thomas | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 11/20 | 223 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +6.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_06_HOU_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 34 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 7 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| −5.5 |
| Davis Mills | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| −2.9 |
| Jordan Akins | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 14% | −0.6 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | +1.0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Chris Moore | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 12% | −3.5 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −1.5 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Zach Cunningham | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Whitney Mercilus | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Mitchell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrence Brooks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Kirksey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 14 | 145 | 10.4 | 2 | +8.3 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Marlon Mack | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 4 | 80 | 0 | 22% | +6.7 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 51 | 1 | 6% | +5.0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 17% | +1.5 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 17% | +0.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 11% | +0.7 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −1.5 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6% | +0.0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Moore | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Okereke | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khari Willis | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Grover Stewart | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Blackmon | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Rhodes | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al-Quadin Muhammad | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
