2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · FedExField

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Washington Commanders

KC -6 ✓U 54 ✓Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.

Kansas City Chiefs 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:27, WAS +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:27KC — WAS WAS ball · 2nd & 3KC 74%

(1:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:27WAS +17% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:31KC +15% win prob(:31) 75-M.Remmers reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes to WAS 22 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at WAS 23. 15-P.Mahomes pass intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain [47-K.Hudson] at WAS 16. 20-B.McCain to WAS 21 for 5 yards (31-Da.Williams).
Q3 · 8:29KC +10% win prob(8:29) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q2 · 5:10KC +9% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right tackle to WAS 34 for 1 yard (51-M.Danna). FUMBLES (51-M.Danna), RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at WAS 34. 38-L.Sneed to WAS 34 for no gain (24-A.Gibson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Commanders
Offensive plays	78	58
Total yards	499 (edge)	276
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	50% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	68%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30 (edge)	-0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	-0.21 (edge)
Third downs	11/17 (edge)	7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

32/47, 397 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

12.3 expected points added · +5.1% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

24/39, 182 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.7 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Darrel WilliamsRB

21 att, 62 yds, 2 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

J.D. McKissicRB

8 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/11 for 99 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

9/12 for 76 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	5	4	1:01	Punt
2	KC	KC 5	11	95	4:50	Touchdown
3	WAS	WAS 25	13	48	5:39	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 25	8	66	3:35	Interception
5	WAS	WAS 6	4	6	1:16	Punt
6	KC	WAS 41	4	7	1:06	Turnover on downs
7	WAS	WAS 26	10	35	4:26	Turnover on downs
8	KC	KC 25	8	23	2:17	Punt
9	WAS	WAS 18	3	16	0:43	Fumble
10	KC	WAS 34	2	6	0:17	Fumble
11	WAS	WAS 33	9	77	3:32	Touchdown
12	KC	KC 8	7	77	0:55	Interception
13	WAS	WAS 21	3	14	0:23	End of half
14	KC	KC 25	9	22	3:26	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 44	7	32	3:09	Turnover on downs
16	KC	KC 32	11	63	4:18	Touchdown
17	WAS	WAS 25	5	5	1:29	Punt
18	KC	WAS 45	9	41	3:36	Touchdown
19	WAS	WAS 18	9	27	3:30	Punt
20	KC	KC 4	16	96	7:18	Touchdown
21	WAS	WAS 25	3	7	0:33	Interception
22	KC	WAS 24	4	3	2:15	Turnover on downs
23	WAS	WAS 21	1	5	0:26	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 96 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	32/47	397	2	2	3	12.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrel Williams	21	62	3.0	2	-1.8
Patrick Mahomes	3	31	10.3	0	3.5
Jerick McKinnon	3	10	3.3	0	-0.7
Mecole Hardman	1	6	6.0	0	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	11	99	0	24%	3.2
Tyreek Hill	9	12	76	1	26%	1.8
Mecole Hardman	4	5	62	0	11%	2.7
Byron Pringle	3	3	55	0	7%	2.7
Demarcus Robinson	3	6	46	1	13%	4.3
Darrel Williams	3	4	27	0	9%	1.1
Joseph Fortson	1	1	27	0	2%	2.3
Jerick McKinnon	1	4	5	0	9%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Nick Bolton	7	2	0
Rashad Fenton	7	0	2
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0
Mike Hughes	4	0	0
Alex Okafor	2	2	0
Ben Niemann	2	1	0
Juan Thornhill	3	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	3	0	0
Marcus Kemp	2	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	1	1	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	24/39	182	1	1	0	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
J.D. McKissic	8	45	5.6	-0.2
Antonio Gibson	10	44	4.4	-3.6
Jaret Patterson	1	5	5.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
J.D. McKissic	8	10	65	0	26%	-1.2
Ricky Seals-Jones	4	6	58	1	15%	3.2
Dyami Brown	3	6	30	0	15%	0.2
Terry McLaurin	4	8	28	0	21%	-1.5
John Bates	1	1	7	0	3%	1.4
Antonio Gibson	2	3	0	0	8%	-1.9
Dax Milne	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5
DeAndre Carter	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Jaret Patterson	1	1	-2	0	3%	-1.1
Adam Humphries	1	2	-4	0	5%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jamin Davis	4	6	0.0	0	0
Cole Holcomb	7	1	1.0	0	1
Kamren Curl	6	2	0.0	0	0
Landon Collins	4	3	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	7	0	0.0	1	1
Bobby McCain	4	1	0.0	1	1
William Jackson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	2	2	0.0	0	0
Chase Young	1	2	0.5	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	1	2	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -6
Closing total: 54
KC moneyline: -255
WAS moneyline: +223

Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 54; the game landed 44 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: KC 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Ron Rivera