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Kansas City Chiefs 31 at Washington Commanders 13. Final.
Chiefs -6 ✓U 54 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 6
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Commanders 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 1:27, 2nd and 3, on Ricky Seals-Jones — 16.7 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:27 · 2nd and 3
Ricky Seals-Jones
Commanders
(1:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.
Kansas City Chiefs 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 1:27, Commanders +16.7% win probability on one snap.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bobby McCainCommandersQ2 0:31(:31) 75-M.Remmers reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes to WAS 22 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at WAS 23. 15-P.Mahomes pass intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain [47-K.Hudson] at WAS 16. 20-B.McCain to WAS 21 for 5 yards (31-Da.Williams).
15.3pts
Dustin HopkinsChiefsQ3 8:29(8:29) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
10.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.13 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.17 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Chiefs170 of 178 plays carry both curves
(1:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +16.7 for CommandersExpected points +4.01 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 20 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:27WAS +17% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:31KC +15% win prob(:31) 75-M.Remmers reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes to WAS 22 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at WAS 23. 15-P.Mahomes pass intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain [47-K.Hudson] at WAS 16. 20-B.McCain to WAS 21 for 5 yards (31-Da.Williams).
3rd · 8:29KC +10% win prob(8:29) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
2nd · 5:10KC +9% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right tackle to WAS 34 for 1 yard (51-M.Danna). FUMBLES (51-M.Danna), RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at WAS 34. 38-L.Sneed to WAS 34 for no gain (24-A.Gibson).
2nd · 1:13WAS +8% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 13-B.Pringle pushed ob at KC 35 for 27 yards (31-K.Curl).
3rd · 10:35WAS +7% win prob(10:35) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 83-R.Seals-Jones ran ob at KC 28 for 14 yards (27-R.Fenton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 2-yard touchdown catch with 4:12 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th3:19Demarcus Robinson·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+731–13
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryCommanders
Chiefs7–2Commanders
499Total yards276
6.4Yards per play4.8
50%Success rate40%
65%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
9Explosive plays3
28First downs14
3Sacks taken0
3Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Chiefs: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.17Commanders: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Chiefs: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.15Commanders: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.24Chiefs: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.21Commanders: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 78 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Commanders’s 58 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 7, Commanders 2.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.3% in week 5 against 17.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Commanders18.9%
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 35.2 points below their season mean of 35.2% and 1.4 times their own 25.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%82 snaps
57Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%82 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%82 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%82 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%82 snaps
75Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%82 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time82%67 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation72%59 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation70%57 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation60%49 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Heavy rotation57%47 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Rotational46%38 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Rotational39%32 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Rotational28%23 snaps
19Josh GordonWR · Situational13%11 snaps
88Joe FortsonTE · Situational12%10 snaps
85Marcus KempWR · Situational7%6 snaps
45Michael BurtonFB · Situational7%6 snaps
77Andrew WylieG · Situational5%4 snaps
67Lucas NiangT · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Austin BlytheCCharvarius WardCBChris JonesDTLaurent Duvernay-TardifGPrince Tega WanoghoTBlake BellTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Remmers reported−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:31) 75-M.Remmers reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes to WAS 22 for -2 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at WAS 23. 15-P.Mahomes pass intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain [47-K.Hudson] at WAS 16. 20-B.McCain to WAS 21 for 5 yards (31-Da.Williams).
Q2 0:31 · Chiefs · 3rd & 1 at WAS 20 · gained nothing · -3.93 EP · −17.4% win probability
168 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 96 yards from the KC 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
775
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1969%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2467%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2374%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0869%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5850%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.5020%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Chiefs6Commanders0
Chiefs7Commanders0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 5 to the Commanders 2
Chiefs7Commanders3
Field goal14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Chiefs 32
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Commanders 14
2nd quarter57 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 6 to the Commanders 12
Chiefs10Commanders3
Field goal4 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Commanders 34
Chiefs10Commanders6
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Chiefs 24
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 48
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 33
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chiefs10Commanders12
Chiefs10Commanders13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Chiefs 39
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Commanders 20
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 29
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 45
No good7 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Chiefs 20
Chiefs16Commanders13
Chiefs17Commanders13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Commanders 2
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 45 to the Commanders 22
4th quarter43 plays
Chiefs23Commanders13
Chiefs24Commanders13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 3
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Commanders 47
Chiefs30Commanders13
Chiefs31Commanders13
Touchdown20 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Commanders 24
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 20
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -6
Closing total
54
Chiefs moneyline
-255
Commanders moneyline
+223
Chiefs closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 54; the game landed 44 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 61°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Ron Rivera
3rd · 5:11WAS +7% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill to WAS 7 for 13 yards (29-K.Fuller). Penalty on WAS-99-C.Young, Defensive Offside, declined.
1st · 2:13WAS +7% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 17-M.Hardman pushed ob at WAS 20 for 49 yards (20-B.McCain).
