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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 6
It turned at Q1 13:38, 3rd and 11, on Jared Cook — 5.8 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 34–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:38, Chargers +5.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:38 · 3rd and 11
Jared Cook
Chargers
(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at LAC 41 for 11 yards (21-B.Stephens).
5.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Chargers at 3 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.33 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at LAC 41 for 11 yards (21-B.Stephens).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Latavius Murray's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 5:17 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Jared Cook1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbert · kick no good, wide right+66–177 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chargerscategory by categoryRavens
Ravens ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 53 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Ravens’s 66 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Ravens 5.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's sack or hit rate, 24.2%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate, 75.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 74.2% in week 5 against 45.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Chargers9.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 3.9 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 53 snaps
Ravens-1.5 ptsright on their number · −0.3 vs their -1.2 pts, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 32% to 89%
Tendencies room →Chargers75.7%leaned — passed early · +14.2 vs their 61.5%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 37 early downs
Ravens45.5%leaned — ran early · −15.0 vs their 60.5%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 55 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50% to 132%
Fourth Down room →Chargers75.0%inside their normal wobble · +20.7 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±29.6 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Ravens—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Chargers24.2%leaned — got home · +10.3 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Ravens9.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.63× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.2%, 10.3 points above their season mean of 13.9% and 1.6 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
22/39, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-14.1 expected points added · -12.4% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
19/27, 167 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-3.4 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Latavius Murray banked 5.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 17.8 | +4.4 | 54% | 67% | 22% | 41% | 5/6, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Latavius MurrayRB | 13.6 | +5.4 | 38% | 36% | 7% | 0% | 9 car, 44 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 12 yd |
| Jared CookTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.5 | −0.7 | 64% | 67% | 18% | 21% | 4/7, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 11.8 | −5.7 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 19/27, 167 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 8 car, 51 yd |
| Devonta FreemanRB | 11.3 | +2.4 | 30% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 9 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Justin HerbertQB · Starter QB | 11.0 | −4.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/39, 195 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 12 yd |
| Keenan AllenWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +2.6 | 91% | 88% | 13% | 10% | 5/5, 50 yd |
| Austin EkelerRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | −3.1 | 61% | 60% | 18% | 0% | 6 car, 7 yd · 4/7, 48 yd |
| Le'Veon BellRB | 7.8 | +0.5 | 32% | 33% | 0% | — | 8 car, 18 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquise BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 7.5 | −2.2 | 74% | 79% | 19% | 23% | 4/5, 35 yd |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Featured Receiver | 6.9 | −2.2 | 65% | 61% | 22% | 22% | 4/6, 29 yd |
| Mike WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −5.2 | 36% | 36% | 13% | 31% | 2/5, 27 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −0.7 | 49% | 52% | 11% | 2% | 1 car, 11 yd · 2/3, 15 yd |
| Donald ParhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | 0.0 | 46% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 10 yd |
| Jalen GuytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −5.4 | 71% | 69% | 13% | 25% | 1/5, 15 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −3.9 | 52% | 55% | 10% | 11% | 1/4, 8 yd |
| Justin JacksonRB | 1.7 | +0.2 | 14% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Miles BoykinWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Gabe NabersRB | 1.6 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | 28% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Tyler HuntleyQB | 1.0 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Stephen AndersonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | −1.9 | 21% | 17% | 5% | 0% | 1/2, -1 yd |
| Joshua KelleyRB | 0.7 | −1.2 | 32% | 29% | 0% | — | 4 car, 7 yd |
| James ProcheWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| K.J. HillWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
6 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at LAC 41 for 11 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q1 13:38 · Chargers · 3rd & 11 at LAC 30 · gained 11 · +2.34 EP · +7.2% win probability
148 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 90 yards from the BAL 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chargers0
Ravens6Chargers0Ravens7Chargers0Ravens13Chargers0Ravens14Chargers0Ravens17Chargers6Ravens17Chargers6Ravens23Chargers6Ravens24Chargers6Ravens27Chargers6Ravens33Chargers6Ravens34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chargers at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/39 | 195 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −14.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 | −3.9 |
| Joshua Kelley |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 13% | +3.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derwin James | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amen Ogbongbemiga | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyzir White |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/27 | 167 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_06_LAC_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 40 — under by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 7 |
| 1.8 |
| 0 |
| −1.3 |
| −2.3 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 13% | −2.6 |
| Jared Cook | 4 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 18% | −1.7 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 13% | −2.4 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 10% | −3.3 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.1 |
| Gabe Nabers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.2 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 5% | −1.5 |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| Nick Niemann | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Davis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uchenna Nwosu | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Linval Joseph | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Covington | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 1 | +3.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 | +2.5 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 | −1.4 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 22% | +6.8 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 19% | +0.7 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 22% | −5.8 |
| Devin Duvernay | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 11% | +0.3 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | +0.3 |
| Miles Boykin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −1.2 |
| James Proche | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Averett | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Harrison | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuck Clark | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Stephens | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Bynes | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeShon Elliott | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Patrick Queen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
