2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -3 ✓U 50.5 ✓15 mph windRavens closed -3 and covered, winning by 28.

Baltimore Ravens 34–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:38, BAL +6% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:38LAC — BAL LAC ball · 3rd & 11BAL 61%

(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at LAC 41 for 11 yards (21-B.Stephens).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:38BAL +6% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 87-J.Cook pushed ob at LAC 41 for 11 yards (21-B.Stephens).
Q2 · 4:33LAC +6% win prob(4:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 12-R.Bateman INTERCEPTED by 44-K.White at BAL 49. 44-K.White to BAL 27 for 22 yards (70-K.Zeitler; 28-L.Murray).
Q1 · 4:09LAC +4% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 19 for -6 yards (32-D.Elliott).
Q2 · 4:39LAC +4% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 32-D.Elliott at BAL 37. 32-D.Elliott to BAL 37 for no gain (87-J.Cook).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Ravens
Offensive plays	53	66
Total yards	208	329 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.33	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	34%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	79%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	0.20 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/39, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-14.1 expected points added · -12.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

19/27, 167 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-3.4 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Devonta FreemanRB

9 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

3.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

8 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

5/6 for 68 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

5/5 for 50 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 20	11	33	3:09	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 10	13	85	6:39	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 20	5	-1	1:53	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 26	9	84	4:55	Touchdown
5	LAC	LAC 25	5	7	1:13	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 28	4	5	1:27	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 14	5	25	1:35	Turnover on downs
8	BAL	LAC 39	4	5	2:06	Turnover on downs
9	LAC	LAC 21	6	21	2:30	Interception
10	BAL	BAL 37	1	0	0:13	Interception
11	LAC	BAL 27	3	27	0:16	Touchdown
12	BAL	BAL 27	9	4	3:58	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 36	1	16	0:06	End of half
14	BAL	BAL 48	14	52	7:21	Touchdown
15	LAC	LAC 10	5	4	1:44	Turnover on downs
16	BAL	LAC 18	4	-3	0:53	Turnover on downs
17	LAC	LAC 25	5	0	0:22	Punt
18	BAL	BAL 35	10	65	4:45	Touchdown
19	LAC	LAC 16	11	58	4:41	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 20	6	18	3:42	Interception
21	LAC	BAL 46	9	18	4:24	Turnover on downs
22	BAL	BAL 29	4	14	2:08	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 85 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	22/39	195	1	1	2	-14.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Herbert	2	12	6.0	2.0
Austin Ekeler	6	7	1.2	-3.9
Joshua Kelley	4	7	1.8	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	5	5	50	0	13%	3.2
Austin Ekeler	4	7	48	0	18%	-2.3
Mike Williams	2	5	27	0	13%	-2.6
Jared Cook	4	7	25	1	18%	-1.7
Jalen Guyton	1	5	15	0	13%	-2.4
Donald Parham	2	2	10	0	5%	-0.4
Josh Palmer	1	4	8	0	10%	-3.3
Justin Jackson	1	1	7	0	3%	0.1
Gabe Nabers	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Stephen Anderson	1	2	-1	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Derwin James	7	1	0.0	0	0
Amen Ogbongbemiga	3	5	0.0	0	0
Kyzir White	2	5	0.0	2	2
Nick Niemann	4	2	0.0	0	0
Chris Harris	3	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Davis	4	1	0.0	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	3	2	1.0	0	0
Linval Joseph	2	2	1.0	0	0
Christian Covington	3	1	0.0	0	0
Joey Bosa	4	0	1.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	19/27	167	1	2	3	-3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devonta Freeman	9	53	5.9	1	3.0
Lamar Jackson	8	51	6.4	0	2.6
Latavius Murray	9	44	4.9	1	2.5
Le'Veon Bell	8	18	2.3	1	-1.4
Devin Duvernay	1	11	11.0	0	1.1
Tyler Huntley	3	10	3.3	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	5	6	68	1	22%	6.8
Marquise Brown	4	5	35	0	19%	0.7
Rashod Bateman	4	6	29	0	22%	-5.8
Devin Duvernay	2	3	15	0	11%	0.3
Latavius Murray	2	2	12	0	7%	0.3
Miles Boykin	1	1	6	0	4%	0.1
Josh Oliver	1	1	2	0	4%	-1.1
Devonta Freeman	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.2
James Proche	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Averett	5	1	0.0	0	1
Malik Harrison	2	3	0.0	0	0
Chuck Clark	3	2	0.0	0	1
Brandon Stephens	4	0	0.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	1	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Bynes	2	2	0.0	0	1
DeShon Elliott	3	0	1.0	1	2
Patrick Queen	2	1	0.0	0	0
Brandon Williams	0	3	0.0	0	1
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3
Closing total: 50.5
LAC moneyline: +149
BAL moneyline: -166

Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 40 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: LAC 7 days · BAL 6 days
Coaches: Brandon Staley vs John Harbaugh

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.