For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Raiders172 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 23-K.Drake for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.2 for BroncosExpected points −3.88 for BroncosThe model had Raiders 8 points higher than the market did.play 85
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:36DEN +15% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 23-K.Drake for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:03DEN +14% win prob(12:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:43DEN +9% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-D.Waller to DEN 31 for 33 yards (29-B.Callahan).
3rd · 2:29LV +9% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles up the middle to DEN 40 for 4 yards (92-S.Thomas). FUMBLES (92-S.Thomas), touched at DEN 40, RECOVERED by LV-52-D.Perryman at DEN 43. 52-D.Perryman to DEN 42 for 1 yard (87-N.Fant).
1st · 4:43DEN +6% win prob(4:43) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 13-H.Renfrow to DEN 39 for 25 yards (22-K.Jackson).
2nd · 13:16LV +6% win prob(13:16) 2-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Daniel Carlson's 50-yard field goal with 2:45 left in the 1st put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Raiders ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Raiders: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.00Broncos: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.57Raiders: +0.57 expected points added per play
−0.00Broncos: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Raiders: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.01Broncos: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Broncos’s 77 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 5, Broncos 4.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 75.0% in week 5 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.2 points.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.7% in week 5 against 17.2% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 19 pts
leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Broncos17.2%
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 14.5 points above their season mean of 52.2% and 1.3 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:03 · Raiders · 3rd & 2 at DEN 48 · gained 48 · +5.08 EP · +16.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 86 yards from the DEN 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
847
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0977%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.5470%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1556%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.4129%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2940%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2060%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Raiders6Broncos0
Raiders7Broncos0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 48
Raiders7Broncos6
Raiders7Broncos7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Raiders 23
Raiders10Broncos7
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 32
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Broncos 37
The period ended3 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Broncos 38
2nd quarter49 plays
No good5 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Broncos 24
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Broncos 38
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 34
Punt11 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 47
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Raiders16Broncos7
Raiders17Broncos7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Broncos 31
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 17 to the Broncos 18
Raiders23Broncos7
Raiders24Broncos7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Broncos 18
Raiders24Broncos10
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Raiders 13
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 33
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 36
Raiders30Broncos10
Raiders31Broncos10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 42 to the Broncos 3
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Raiders31Broncos16
Raiders31Broncos17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Raiders 12
Raiders34Broncos17
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Broncos 11
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 37
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 45 to the Broncos 44
Raiders34Broncos23
Raiders34Broncos24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Raiders 4
Intercepted6 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -5
Closing total
45.5
Raiders moneyline
+182
Broncos moneyline
-205
Broncos closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Rich Bisaccia vs Vic Fangio
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 6:04
LV +6% win prob
(6:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at DEN 36 for -6 yards (98-M.Crosby).
2nd · 4:31LV +6% win prob(4:31) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to LV 28 for 3 yards (98-M.Purcell). PENALTY on LV-68-A.James, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25 - No Play.
