2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

Denver Broncos

DEN -5 upsetO 45.5 ✓Broncos closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 34–24. Biggest swing: Q2 0:36, DEN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:36LV — DEN LV ball · 1st & 10LV 56%

(:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 23-K.Drake for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:36DEN +15% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 23-K.Drake for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:03DEN +14% win prob(12:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:43DEN +9% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 83-D.Waller to DEN 31 for 33 yards (29-B.Callahan).
Q3 · 2:29LV +9% win prob(2:29) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles up the middle to DEN 40 for 4 yards (92-S.Thomas). FUMBLES (92-S.Thomas), touched at DEN 40, RECOVERED by LV-52-D.Perryman at DEN 43. 52-D.Perryman to DEN 42 for 1 yard (87-N.Fant).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Broncos
Offensive plays	51	77
Total yards	427 (edge)	421
Yards per play	8.4 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	-0.00
Success rate	47% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	57%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.57 (edge)	-0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	15	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

18/27, 341 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +9.7% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

35/49, 334 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT

3.9 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

11 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

16 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Noah FantTE

9/11 for 97 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Henry RuggsWR

3/4 for 97 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	8	70	3:06	Touchdown
2	DEN	DEN 16	10	64	5:05	Touchdown
3	LV	LV 25	9	43	4:09	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 18	6	19	2:16	Interception
5	LV	DEN 49	6	19	2:13	Turnover on downs
6	DEN	DEN 33	4	5	1:32	Punt
7	LV	LV 15	5	19	1:28	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 20	10	22	5:40	Punt
9	LV	LV 25	4	14	1:55	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 20	7	36	1:35	Punt
11	LV	LV 18	6	82	0:31	Touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 25	2	-8	0:30	End of half
13	DEN	DEN 17	5	4	1:40	Punt
14	LV	LV 44	5	56	1:53	Touchdown
15	DEN	DEN 22	10	64	4:49	Turnover on downs
16	LV	LV 25	5	8	1:32	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 13	6	27	2:47	Fumble
18	LV	DEN 42	6	44	2:12	Touchdown
19	DEN	DEN 25	14	90	3:51	Touchdown
20	LV	LV 25	8	68	3:19	Turnover on downs
21	DEN	DEN 25	5	12	1:09	Interception
22	LV	DEN 45	4	4	2:45	Punt
23	DEN	DEN 14	9	86	2:51	Touchdown
24	LV	DEN 44	5	0	0:48	Interception
25	LV	DEN 49	1	0	0:24	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 90 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	18/27	341	2	0	2	16.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	16	53	3.3	1	-1.0
Kenyan Drake	4	34	8.5	1	3.0
Jalen Richard	1	0	0.0	0	-0.9
Derek Carr	2	-1	-0.5	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Henry Ruggs	3	4	97	1	16%	9.2
Bryan Edwards	2	4	67	0	16%	4.0
Darren Waller	5	5	59	0	20%	2.8
Kenyan Drake	2	2	39	1	8%	4.0
Hunter Renfrow	3	5	36	0	20%	-0.9
Josh Jacobs	1	1	29	0	4%	2.1
Foster Moreau	1	1	11	0	4%	0.6
Jalen Richard	1	1	3	0	4%	0.9
Willie Snead	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Alec Ingold	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Denzel Perryman	6	6	0.0	0	0
Cory Littleton	7	4	0.5	0	1
Nate Hobbs	6	5	0.0	0	0
Johnathan Abram	6	2	0.0	1	1
Maxx Crosby	2	4	3.0	0	1
Quinton Jefferson	1	3	1.0	0	0
Dallin Leavitt	2	2	0.0	0	0
Casey Hayward	3	0	0.0	0	1
Brandon Facyson	2	1	0.0	1	2
Amik Robertson	2	1	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	35/49	334	3	3	5	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	11	53	4.8	-1.5
Melvin Gordon	10	50	5.0	1.7
Teddy Bridgewater	2	9	4.5	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	9	11	97	1	23%	4.6
Courtland Sutton	8	14	94	1	29%	2.6
Tim Patrick	3	6	42	1	13%	0.1
Kendall Hinton	5	5	37	0	10%	4.6
Melvin Gordon	3	3	23	0	6%	0.5
Eric Saubert	3	5	23	0	10%	-1.2
Javonte Williams	3	3	15	0	6%	-1.8
Mike Boone	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kareem Jackson	4	2	1.0	0
Ronald Darby	4	1	0.0	0
Alexander Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Patrick Surtain	4	0	0.0	1
Bryce Callahan	3	0	1.0	0
Justin Simmons	1	2	0.0	0
Micah Kiser	1	2	0.0	0
Mike Purcell	1	2	0.0	0
Justin Strnad	3	0	0.0	0
Noah Fant	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -5
Closing total: 45.5
LV moneyline: +182
DEN moneyline: -205

Broncos closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: LV 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Rich Bisaccia vs Vic Fangio

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.