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2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
VikingsMinnesota34
BY 6final margin
PanthersCarolina28
Minnesota Vikings 34 at Carolina Panthers 28. Final.
Vikings -2.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 6
Minnesota Vikings 34, Panthers 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:06, 2nd and 10, on Greg Joseph — 33.7 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:06 · 2nd and 10
Greg Joseph
Panthers
(:06) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Minnesota Vikings 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, Panthers +33.7% win probability on one snap.
33.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ3 6:56(6:56) 3-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 49-F.Luvu, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by CAR-27-K.Robinson at MIN 4. 27-K.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.7pts
K.J. OsbornVikingsOT 5:55(5:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 14 chunk plays, against Panthers at 5 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 12 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Vikings205 of 219 plays carry both curves
(:06) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Swing +33.7 for PanthersExpected points +2.16 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 4 points higher than the market did.play 206
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:06MIN +34% win prob(:06) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
3rd · 6:56MIN +20% win prob(6:56) 3-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 49-F.Luvu, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by CAR-27-K.Robinson at MIN 4. 27-K.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 5:55CAR +20% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 7:11CAR +18% win prob(7:11) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CAR 24 for 16 yards (34-S.Chandler).
Overtime · 8:29CAR +17% win prob(8:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 17-K.Osborn to CAR 44 for 13 yards (28-K.Taylor).
3rd · 4:00MIN +14% win prob(4:00) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 2-Dj.Moore to CAR 40 for 15 yards (23-X.Woods). FUMBLES (23-X.Woods), RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at CAR 41. 54-E.Kendricks to CAR 39 for 2 yards (2-Dj.Moore).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.J. Osborn's 27-yard touchdown catch with 5:55 left in overtime put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:55Greg Joseph·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+33–0
Vikings ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Vikings: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.27Panthers: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Vikings: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.37Panthers: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Vikings: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 85 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Panthers’s 68 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 6, Panthers 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Panthers6.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.9 points below their season mean of 31.9% and 1.3 times their own 25.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Brian O'NeillT · Every snap100%89 snaps
71Christian DarrisawT · Every snap100%89 snaps
74Olisaemeka UdohT · Every snap100%89 snaps
72Ezra ClevelandG · Every snap100%89 snaps
56Garrett BradburyC · Every snap100%89 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%89 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time98%87 snaps
18Justin JeffersonWR · Full-time94%84 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Full-time85%76 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Heavy rotation74%66 snaps
17K.J. OsbornWR · Heavy rotation54%48 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Rotational27%24 snaps
30C.J. HamFB · Situational24%21 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Situational13%12 snaps
25Alexander MattisonRB · Situational13%12 snaps
35Luke StockerTE · Situational11%10 snaps
52Mason ColeC · Situational4%4 snaps
85Dan ChisenaWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Patrick JonesDEMichael PierceNTChazz SurrattOLBKellen MondQBBen EllefsonTEIhmir Smith-MarsetteWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Greg Joseph−36% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:06) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q4 0:06 · Vikings · 2nd & 10 at CAR 29 · gained nothing · -2.16 EP · −35.7% win probability
203 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 219 plays across 31 drives, personnel groupings on 219 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 31 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 96 yards from the CAR 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
219 of 219 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
219
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
38%
Yards
879
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.0968%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1273%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1125%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.3057%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR10-0.0690%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-1.0667%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
219 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
219 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Vikings3Panthers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 6
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 37
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Vikings3Panthers6
Vikings3Panthers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 2
Vikings6Panthers7
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Panthers 7
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 41
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Vikings12Panthers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Panthers 2
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 24
Vikings12Panthers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Vikings 27
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Punt12 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Vikings 35
The period ended9 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Vikings 33
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 48
Vikings12Panthers16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 24
Vikings12Panthers17
Vikings18Panthers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Panthers 16
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Vikings24Panthers17
Vikings25Panthers17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 46
4th quarter63 plays
Punt1 play
Vikings28Panthers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Panthers 20
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 45
No good4 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 32
Vikings28Panthers20
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Vikings 5
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Panthers 33
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Vikings28Panthers26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Vikings28Panthers28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 4 to the Vikings 7
No good11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Panthers 29
The period ended2 plays
Overtime11 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Vikings34Panthers28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Panthers 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -2.5
Closing total
45.5
Vikings moneyline
-134
Panthers moneyline
+121
Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 62 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Matt Rhule
4th · 0:42
CAR +14% win prob
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-S.Darnold pass to 82-T.Tremble is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
1st · 9:20MIN +14% win prob(9:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 41 for 6 yards (24-A.Bouye). FUMBLES (24-A.Bouye), RECOVERED by CAR-43-H.Reddick at MIN 40. 43-H.Reddick to MIN 18 for 22 yards (8-K.Cousins).
