2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Carolina Panthers

MIN -2.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Minnesota Vikings 34–28. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, MIN +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:06MIN — CAR MIN ball · 2nd & 10MIN 81%

(:06) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:06MIN +34% win prob(:06) 1-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.
Q3 · 6:56MIN +20% win prob(6:56) 3-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 49-F.Luvu, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by CAR-27-K.Robinson at MIN 4. 27-K.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 5:55CAR +20% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 7:11CAR +18% win prob(7:11) 33-D.Cook left tackle to CAR 24 for 16 yards (34-S.Chandler).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Panthers
Offensive plays	85	68
Total yards	571 (edge)	309
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.27
Success rate	42% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	58%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	14 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

33/48, 373 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.9 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

17/41, 207 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-16.1 expected points added · -20.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

29 att, 140 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

16 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

11/13 for 126 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

8/14 for 80 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	2	0	0:12	Interception
2	MIN	CAR 22	7	16	2:56	Turnover on downs
3	CAR	CAR 25	7	12	2:26	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 35	2	5	0:17	Fumble
5	CAR	MIN 18	3	18	0:42	Touchdown
6	MIN	MIN 47	12	46	5:30	Turnover on downs
7	CAR	CAR 25	7	8	2:50	Punt
8	MIN	MIN 15	10	83	4:08	Touchdown
9	CAR	CAR 25	5	0	0:26	Punt
10	MIN	MIN 21	4	2	1:50	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 39	10	32	4:23	Turnover on downs
12	MIN	MIN 25	5	9	1:16	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 12	8	38	2:20	Punt
14	MIN	MIN 11	5	31	0:44	End of half
15	MIN	MIN 25	6	10	1:48	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 35	8	8	5:02	Punt
17	MIN	MIN 8	5	16	1:21	Defensive touchdown
18	MIN	MIN 21	7	79	2:49	Touchdown
19	CAR	CAR 25	2	15	0:09	Fumble
20	MIN	CAR 39	5	39	1:27	Touchdown
21	CAR	CAR 25	7	22	2:32	Punt
22	MIN	MIN 17	8	69	4:37	Turnover on downs
23	CAR	CAR 20	6	3	1:45	Fumble
24	MIN	CAR 38	4	6	1:30	Turnover on downs
25	CAR	CAR 40	7	55	2:19	Turnover on downs
26	MIN	MIN 25	6	39	2:32	Punt
27	CAR	CAR 4	12	98	1:27	Touchdown
28	MIN	MIN 25	8	46	0:41	Turnover on downs
29	CAR	CAR 37	1	0	0:01	Turnover on downs
30	MIN	MIN 25	10	75	4:12	Touchdown

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 98 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	33/48	373	3	0	0	13.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	29	140	4.8	1	-1.7
C.J. Ham	1	30	30.0	0	2.4
Kirk Cousins	2	16	8.0	0	-0.8
Alexander Mattison	3	10	3.3	0	-1.0
Adam Thielen	1	2	2.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	11	13	126	1	29%	7.2
Justin Jefferson	8	14	80	0	31%	-6.9
K.J. Osborn	6	7	78	1	16%	7.1
Tyler Conklin	3	5	71	0	11%	2.0
Dede Westbrook	2	3	13	0	7%	0.5
Dalvin Cook	2	2	3	0	4%	-0.5
Christopher Herndon	1	1	2	1	2%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Harrison Smith	7	1	0.0	0
Danielle Hunter	3	3	0.0	0
Eric Kendricks	3	2	1.0	1
Xavier Woods	4	1	0.0	1
Anthony Barr	1	3	0.5	1
Mackensie Alexander	4	0	0.0	1
Dalvin Tomlinson	0	4	0.5	0
Armon Watts	1	3	1.0	0
Patrick Peterson	1	1	0.0	0
Kris Boyd	1	1	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	17/41	207	1	1	4	-16.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	16	61	3.8	1	0.6
Sam Darnold	4	48	12.0	0	3.5
D.J. Moore	1	6	6.0	0	0.2
Royce Freeman	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3
Tommy Tremble	1	0	0.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	5	13	73	0	33%	-4.7
Ian Thomas	1	2	41	0	5%	2.5
Brandon Zylstra	3	3	32	0	8%	1.0
Shi Smith	2	2	20	0	5%	1.2
Alex Erickson	1	1	17	0	3%	1.1
Robbie Chosen	3	11	11	1	28%	-10.2
Terrace Marshall	1	2	9	0	5%	0.1
Chuba Hubbard	1	3	4	0	8%	-0.8
Tommy Tremble	0	2	0	0	5%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jermaine Carter	7	3	0
Sean Chandler	6	3	0
Keith Taylor	9	0	3
Jeremy Chinn	6	2	1
Haason Reddick	5	2	0
Brian Burns	3	3	1
Donte Jackson	5	0	1
Frankie Luvu	4	1	0
A.J. Bouye	5	0	1
Sam Franklin	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2.5
Closing total: 45.5
MIN moneyline: -134
CAR moneyline: +121

Vikings closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 62 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: MIN 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Matt Rhule