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Seattle Seahawks 20 at Pittsburgh Steelers 23. Final.
Steelers -5.5 no cover43 push
The verdict · 2021 Week 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Seahawks 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 4:33, 4th and 1 — 44.0 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:33 · 4th and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(4:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
44.0
Steelers closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:33, Steelers +44.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Geno SmithSteelersOT 7:17(7:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 42 for -13 yards (90-T.Watt).
29.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetSeahawksOT 6:41(6:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to PIT 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 20 for 9 yards (31-D.Dallas).
29.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Steelers won this one — 5 of 14 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 12 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Steelers at +0.04 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Seahawks179 of 192 plays carry both curves
(4:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
Swing +44.0 for SteelersExpected points +0.25 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:33PIT +44% win prob(4:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
Overtime · 6:41PIT +30% win prob(6:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to PIT 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 20 for 9 yards (31-D.Dallas).
Overtime · 7:17SEA +29% win prob(7:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 42 for -13 yards (90-T.Watt).
4th · 0:02PIT +24% win prob(:02) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 11:37SEA +21% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 18-D.Johnson. Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger sacked at PIT 33 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by SEA-51-K.Hyder at PIT 35.
Overtime · 9:17PIT +19% win prob(9:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to SEA 49 for 21 yards (20-C.Sutton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 37-yard field goal with 2:55 left in overtime put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd10:04Najee Harris·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+70–7
4th13:04Jason Myers·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+317–17
4th1:35Chris Boswell·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+317–20
4th0:02Jason Myers·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+320–20
Overtime2:55Chris Boswell·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.KuntzLead never changed again+320–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categorySteelers
Seahawks3–4Steelers
310Total yards345
5.0Yards per play4.9
47%Success rate41%
25%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays5
17First downs20
5Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Seahawks: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.00Steelers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Seahawks: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.03Steelers: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Seahawks: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.04Steelers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 62 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Steelers’s 70 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 3, Steelers 4.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's sack or hit rate, 4.9%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 7.9% in week 5.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Steelers19.4%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.9%, 7.4 points below their season mean of 12.3% and 1.4 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
P.Harvin punts+44% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
OT 4:33 · Steelers · 4th & 1 at PIT 29 · gained nothing · +0.25 EP · +44.0% win probability
177 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 84 yards from the PIT 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
654
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.0258%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.1570%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2447%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.7244%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 45
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 18
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 49
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Steelers 37
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 35
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Seahawks 30
Seahawks0Steelers6
Seahawks0Steelers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 46 to the Seahawks 5
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 45
Seahawks0Steelers13
Seahawks0Steelers14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Seahawks 1
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Seahawks6Steelers14
Seahawks7Steelers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Steelers 2
Seahawks7Steelers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Seahawks 9
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Seahawks13Steelers17
Seahawks14Steelers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Steelers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 42 to the Steelers 41
4th quarter48 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerSeven
Seahawks17Steelers17
Field goal4 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 7
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwo
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 38
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 35
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Seahawks 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Seahawks17Steelers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Seahawks 34
Seahawks20Steelers20
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Steelers 25
Overtime16 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Steelers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 29
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThree
Fumble lost1 play
Seahawks20Steelers23
Field goal3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -5.5
Closing total
43
Seahawks moneyline
+189
Steelers moneyline
-213
Steelers closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 51°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Seahawks 10 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Mike Tomlin
Overtime · 4:27SEA +18% win prob(4:27) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 13 for -2 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at SEA 16. 55-D.Bush to SEA 16 for no gain (14-D.Metcalf).
4th · 13:47SEA +12% win prob(13:47) 7-G.Smith sacked at PIT 22 for -15 yards (sack split by 56-A.Highsmith and 95-C.Wormley).
