2021 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 17, 2021 · Heinz Field

Seattle Seahawks

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -5.5 no cover43 pushSteelers closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 4:33, PIT +44% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 4:33SEA — PIT PIT ball · 4th & 1SEA 75%

(4:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 4:33PIT +44% win prob(4:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
OT · 6:41PIT +30% win prob(6:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to PIT 11, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 20 for 9 yards (31-D.Dallas).
OT · 7:17SEA +29% win prob(7:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at SEA 42 for -13 yards (90-T.Watt).
Q4 · 0:02PIT +24% win prob(:02) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Steelers
Offensive plays	62	70
Total yards	310	345 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.05	0.00 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	58%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	0.04
Third downs	3/12	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	17	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

29/40, 229 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.1 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

23/32, 209 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-8.0 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Alex CollinsRB

20 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Najee HarrisRB

24 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

9/13 for 71 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Pat FreiermuthTE

7/7 for 58 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 37	5	13	2:41	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 10	4	8	2:05	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 31	6	18	2:10	Punt
4	SEA	SEA 16	8	51	3:09	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 20	7	25	4:20	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 21	4	9	1:24	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 46	9	54	4:10	Touchdown
8	SEA	SEA 31	6	6	1:58	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 16	15	64	6:59	Touchdown
10	SEA	SEA 25	5	-8	0:28	Punt
11	PIT	PIT 41	4	3	0:25	Punt
12	SEA	SEA 20	1	0	0:11	End of half
13	SEA	SEA 25	12	72	5:05	Touchdown
14	PIT	PIT 25	10	76	4:09	Turnover on downs
15	SEA	SEA 40	8	60	2:44	Touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 23	5	3	1:37	Punt
17	SEA	SEA 42	8	36	3:26	Turnover on downs
18	PIT	PIT 17	4	18	1:27	Fumble
19	SEA	PIT 35	4	6	1:47	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 20	6	15	2:16	Punt
21	SEA	SEA 18	4	5	2:10	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 26	9	50	3:49	Turnover on downs
23	SEA	SEA 25	10	50	1:30	Turnover on downs
24	SEA	SEA 27	7	15	3:29	Punt
25	PIT	PIT 20	4	9	2:04	Punt
26	SEA	SEA 15	1	0	0:11	Fumble
27	PIT	SEA 16	3	-3	1:26	Turnover on downs

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 76 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	23/32	209	1	0	5	-8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	20	101	5.0	1	2.5
Travis Homer	2	27	13.5	0	2.5
DeeJay Dallas	4	17	4.3	0	0.2
Geno Smith	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	6	7	58	0	23%	1.8
Gerald Everett	2	3	40	0	10%	1.5
Tyler Lockett	2	7	35	0	23%	-0.5
DeeJay Dallas	5	5	33	0	16%	0.5
Travis Homer	1	1	27	0	3%	3.2
Penny Hart	1	1	12	0	3%	0.8
Will Dissly	2	2	8	1	6%	1.0
Phillip Dorsett	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2
Alex Collins	1	1	-3	0	3%	-1.1
Freddie Swain	2	3	-4	0	10%	-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Bobby Wagner	8	6	0
Jordyn Brooks	4	7	0
D.J. Reed	4	2	2
Sidney Jones	3	3	0
Jamal Adams	3	2	0
DeeJay Dallas	1	2	0
Poona Ford	1	2	0
Darrell Taylor	2	1	0
Ryan Neal	2	0	0
Bryan Mone	1	1	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	29/40	229	1	0	1	-1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	24	81	3.4	0	-3.8
Diontae Johnson	1	25	25.0	0	2.1
Kalen Ballage	2	15	7.5	0	1.8
Eric Ebron	1	1	1.0	1	2.2
Ben Roethlisberger	2	-3	-1.5	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	9	13	71	0	33%	2.2
Pat Freiermuth	7	7	58	0	18%	2.3
Najee Harris	6	7	46	1	18%	1.5
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	2	18	0	5%	0.4
Chase Claypool	2	7	17	0	18%	-2.7
Eric Ebron	2	2	10	0	5%	0.7
James Washington	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	2	0.0	0
Alex Highsmith	2	5	1.5	0
Cameron Heyward	4	3	1.0	0
T.J. Watt	4	1	2.0	3
Devin Bush	2	3	0.0	0
Chris Wormley	1	3	0.5	1
James Pierre	2	2	0.0	0
Cameron Sutton	2	1	0.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	1	0.0	0
Tre Norwood	3	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -5.5
Closing total: 43
SEA moneyline: +189
PIT moneyline: -213

Steelers closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: SEA 10 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Mike Tomlin