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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 6 · Thu, Oct 14, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 6
It turned at Q1 6:14, 1st and 20, on Jalen Hurts — 7.0 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:14 · 1st and 20
Jalen Hurts
Eagles
(6:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Reagor (35-J.Dean) [56-R.Nunez-Roches]. PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Defensive Pass Interference, 45 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–22. Biggest swing: Q1 6:14, Eagles +7.0% win probability on one snap.
7.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 10 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Buccaneers at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
(6:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Reagor (35-J.Dean) [56-R.Nunez-Roches]. PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Defensive Pass Interference, 45 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Antonio Brown's 23-yard touchdown catch with 0:42 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Antonio Brown23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+714–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryEagles
Buccaneers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 70 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Eagles’s 48 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Eagles 3.
Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 29 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers7.0 ptsright on their number · −1.1 vs their 8.1 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 70 snaps
Eagles-3.0 ptsright on their number · +3.2 vs their -6.2 pts, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 8% to 92%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers57.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 64.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 57 early downs
Eagles63.9%inside their normal wobble · +13.9 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±16.4 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 36 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers25.0%right on their number · −5.7 vs their 30.7%, and they swing ±20.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles20.0%inside their normal wobble · −16.9 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 31%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers14.7%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Eagles7.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Nothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PHI's early-down pass rate, 63.9% against a season mean of 50.0% — and PHI swings 16.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
34/42, 297 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
13.5 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
12/26, 115 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.6 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
O.J. Howard banked 1.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard FournetteRB · Bell Cow Back | 30.7 | −1.6 | 63% | 48% | 14% | 0% | 22 car, 81 yd, 2 TD · 6/6, 46 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 25.0 | −0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/26, 115 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 44 yd, 2 TD |
| Antonio BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 24.3 | −1.8 | 49% | 71% | 31% | 52% | 9/13, 93 yd, 1 TD |
| Tom BradyQB · Starter QB | 18.0 | −3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 34/42, 297 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 1 yd |
| O.J. HowardTE · Rotational Receiver | 16.9 | +1.5 | 65% | 50% | 17% | 10% | 6/7, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Zach ErtzTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | +1.0 | 88% | 74% | 25% | 11% | 4/6, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Quez WatkinsWR · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −2.5 | 77% | 65% | 21% | 34% | 3/5, 44 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | −0.4 | 91% | 95% | 12% | 8% | 5/5, 43 yd |
| Miles SandersRB · Committee Back | 8.6 | −6.2 | 83% | 68% | 17% | 1% | 9 car, 56 yd · 2/4, 10 yd |
| Cameron BrateTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −0.6 | 59% | 64% | 10% | 6% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −1.7 | 98% | 82% | 17% | 25% | 2/4, 31 yd |
| Mike EvansWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −3.3 | 93% | 95% | 10% | 27% | 2/4, 27 yd |
| Ronald JonesRB | 3.9 | −0.2 | 19% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 5 car, 20 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Giovani BernardRB | 2.4 | −0.7 | 16% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 4 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 1.1 | −1.5 | 23% | 24% | 8% | 12% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.9 | 83% | 74% | 13% | 11% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Jaydon MickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Reagor (35-J.Dean) [56-R.Nunez-Roches]. PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Defensive Pass Interference, 45 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q1 6:14 · Eagles · 1st & 20 at 50 · gained nothing · +3.20 EP · +7.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 79 yards from the TB 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers6
Eagles0Buccaneers7Eagles0Buccaneers7Eagles6Buccaneers7Eagles7Buccaneers13Eagles7Buccaneers14Eagles7Buccaneers20Eagles7Buccaneers21Eagles7Buccaneers27Eagles7Buccaneers28Eagles7Buccaneers28Eagles13Buccaneers28Eagles14Buccaneers28Eagles20Buccaneers28Eagles22Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/42 | 297 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +13.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 22 | 81 | 3.7 | 2 | +3.6 |
| Ronald Jones | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 13 | 93 | 1 | 31% | +4.5 |
| O.J. Howard | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 | 17% | +1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Edwards | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Minter |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 12/26 | 115 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −6.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_06_TB_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 53; the game landed 50 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 14% | +2.0 |
| Chris Godwin | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 12% | +5.0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 10% | +0.6 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2% | +0.9 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Cockrell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dee Delaney | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
| 56 |
| 6.2 |
| 0 |
| +2.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 2 | +5.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 21% | +1.4 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% | −0.4 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 25% | +0.8 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 17% | −2.2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −1.2 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −2.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 7 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Avonte Maddox | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodney McLeod | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Harris | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Steven Nelson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. Edwards | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davion Taylor | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Genard Avery | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
