2021 Week 6 · Thu, Oct 14, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

TB -7 no coverU 53 ✓Buccaneers closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–22. Biggest swing: Q1 6:14, PHI +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:14TB — PHI PHI ball · 1st & 20TB 84%

(6:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Reagor (35-J.Dean) [56-R.Nunez-Roches]. PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Defensive Pass Interference, 45 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:14PHI +7% win prob(6:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Reagor (35-J.Dean) [56-R.Nunez-Roches]. PENALTY on TB-35-J.Dean, Defensive Pass Interference, 45 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
Q1 · 0:42PHI +6% win prob(:42) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 81-A.Brown for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:32PHI +4% win prob(7:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 16-Q.Watkins to TB 40 for 23 yards (5-R.Sherman). TB-5-R.Sherman was injured during the play. He is Out.
Q4 · 3:24PHI +4% win prob(3:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 81-A.Brown to PHI 18 for 27 yards (22-M.Epps).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Eagles
Offensive plays	70	48
Total yards	401 (edge)	215
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.26 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	54% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	60%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.18
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

34/42, 297 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.5 expected points added · +12.9% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

12/26, 115 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-6.6 expected points added · -11.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

22 att, 81 yds, 2 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

9 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Antonio BrownWR

9/13 for 93 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

O.J. HowardTE

6/7 for 49 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	12	75	5:34	Touchdown
2	PHI	PHI 25	9	35	3:25	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 25	11	75	5:28	Touchdown
4	PHI	PHI 25	5	7	1:25	Punt
5	TB	TB 33	4	9	2:01	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 17	4	5	1:33	Punt
7	TB	TB 39	4	6	1:28	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 11	3	15	1:34	Interception
9	TB	TB 28	12	72	5:36	Touchdown
10	PHI	PHI 25	5	5	0:32	Punt
11	TB	TB 35	3	0	0:27	Interception
12	PHI	PHI 32	4	6	0:26	Punt
13	TB	TB 22	1	-4	0:31	End of half
14	PHI	PHI 25	5	4	1:32	Punt
15	TB	TB 21	13	78	7:41	Touchdown
16	PHI	PHI 25	9	25	3:32	Touchdown
17	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:37	Punt
18	PHI	PHI 15	9	57	3:00	Turnover on downs
19	TB	TB 36	6	28	3:39	Turnover on downs
20	PHI	PHI 46	8	56	3:05	Touchdown
21	TB	TB 25	13	54	5:54	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	34/42	297	2	1	0	13.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	22	81	3.7	2	3.6
Ronald Jones	5	20	4.0	0	0.3
Tom Brady	4	1	0.3	0	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	9	13	93	1	31%	4.5
O.J. Howard	6	7	49	1	17%	1.4
Leonard Fournette	6	6	46	0	14%	2.0
Chris Godwin	5	5	43	0	12%	5.0
Mike Evans	2	4	27	0	10%	0.6
Cameron Brate	3	4	26	0	10%	-0.4
Ronald Jones	1	1	9	0	2%	0.9
Giovani Bernard	2	2	4	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	4	1	0.0	1
Jordan Whitehead	3	1	0.0	1
Mike Edwards	1	3	0.0	0
Kevin Minter	2	2	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	4	0	1.0	0
Ross Cockrell	1	2	0.0	1
Dee Delaney	2	0	0.0	0
Vita Vea	1	1	0.5	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	1	1	0.5	0
Giovani Bernard	1	0	0.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	12/26	115	1	1	2	-6.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	9	56	6.2	0	2.3
Jalen Hurts	10	44	4.4	2	5.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Quez Watkins	3	5	44	0	21%	1.4
DeVonta Smith	2	4	31	0	17%	-0.4
Zach Ertz	4	6	29	1	25%	0.8
Miles Sanders	2	4	10	0	17%	-2.2
Kenneth Gainwell	1	2	1	0	8%	-1.2
Jalen Reagor	0	3	0	0	13%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	7	7	0	1
Avonte Maddox	4	3	0	0
Javon Hargrave	3	2	0	0
Josh Sweat	3	2	0	0
Rodney McLeod	2	3	0	0
Anthony Harris	3	2	1	1
Steven Nelson	3	2	0	1
T.J. Edwards	3	1	0	0
Davion Taylor	2	2	0	0
Genard Avery	1	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -7
Closing total: 53
TB moneyline: -274
PHI moneyline: +238

Buccaneers closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 53; the game landed 50 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 74°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: TB 4 days · PHI 4 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Nick Sirianni