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2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta30
BY 2final margin
DolphinsMiami28
Atlanta Falcons 30 at Miami Dolphins 28. Final.
Falcons -1.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 7
Atlanta Falcons 30, Dolphins 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 4th and 15, on Younghoe Koo — 26.7 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 4th and 15
Younghoe Koo
Falcons
(:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
Falcons closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.
Atlanta Falcons 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Falcons +26.7% win probability on one snap.
26.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Foyesade OluokunFalconsQ4 14:09(14:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [97-G.Jarrett] at ATL 30. 54-F.Oluokun to MIA 14 for 56 yards (17-J.Waddle).
20.8pts
Mack HollinsDolphinsQ4 2:34(2:34) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 86-M.Hollins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 11 on third down, against Falcons at 6 of 12 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Falcons168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
Swing −26.7 for DolphinsExpected points −0.29 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 8 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03MIA +27% win prob(:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
4th · 14:09ATL +21% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [97-G.Jarrett] at ATL 30. 54-F.Oluokun to MIA 14 for 56 yards (17-J.Waddle).
4th · 2:34MIA +15% win prob(2:34) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 86-M.Hollins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:03ATL +15% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right tackle to ATL 35 for 2 yards (91-E.Ogbah). FUMBLES (91-E.Ogbah), RECOVERED by MIA-40-N.Needham at ATL 40.
2nd · 0:43ATL +14% win prob(:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 32-J.Hawkins at ATL -3. Touchback.
4th · 3:30MIA +12% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki to ATL 8 for 16 yards (21-D.Harmon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 36-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:58Isaiah Ford·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+70–7
2nd14:17Younghoe Koo·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Harris+33–7
2nd4:53Calvin Ridley·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+710–7
2nd0:07Younghoe Koo·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Harris+313–7
3rd14:02Russell Gage·49-yd TD catch49-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+720–7
3rd5:20Mike Gesicki·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+720–14
4th8:35Myles Gaskin·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+727–21
4th2:34Mack Hollins·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+727–28
4th0:03Younghoe Koo·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+330–28
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryDolphins
Falcons2–5Dolphins
399Total yards413
6.5Yards per play5.9
44%Success rate54%
50%Third-down rate64%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays3
20First downs26
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Dolphins ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Falcons: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.11Dolphins: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Falcons: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.18Dolphins: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Falcons: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.02Dolphins: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 70 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 6, Dolphins 5.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 7.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 34.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.6 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±3.9 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Dolphins14.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 40.3 points below their season mean of 40.3% and 1.2 times their own 34.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
69Jason SpriggsT · Every snap100%63 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%63 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%63 snaps
77Jalen MayfieldG · Every snap100%63 snaps
61Matt HennessyC · Every snap100%63 snaps
2Matt RyanQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Heavy rotation73%46 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Younghoe Koo+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
Q4 0:03 · Falcons · 4th & 15 at MIA 18 · gained nothing · +0.29 EP · +34.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 90 yards from the MIA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
810
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR56-0.0757%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18+0.0150%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13+0.3262%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR13-0.1685%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.9460%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0478%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Falcons0Dolphins6
Falcons0Dolphins7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Falcons 10
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Dolphins 34
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Dolphins 19
2nd quarter45 plays
Falcons3Dolphins7
Field goal2 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 15
No good10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Falcons 31
Falcons9Dolphins7
Falcons10Dolphins7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Dolphins 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Falcons 14
Falcons13Dolphins7
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Dolphins 18
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Falcons19Dolphins7
Falcons20Dolphins7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Dolphins 49
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 40
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 36
Falcons20Dolphins13
Falcons20Dolphins14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 42 to the Falcons 6
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Dolphins 21
4th quarter55 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Falcons 24
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Falcons26Dolphins14
Falcons27Dolphins14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 14 to the Dolphins 3
Falcons27Dolphins20
Falcons27Dolphins21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Falcons 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Falcons 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Falcons27Dolphins27
Falcons27Dolphins28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 40 to the Falcons 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Falcons30Dolphins28
Field goal15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Dolphins 11
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
