2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Miami Dolphins

ATL -1.5 ✓O 48.5 ✓Falcons closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.

Atlanta Falcons 30–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, MIA +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03ATL — MIA ATL ball · 4th & 15ATL 73%

(:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03MIA +27% win prob(:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
Q4 · 14:09ATL +21% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Oluokun [97-G.Jarrett] at ATL 30. 54-F.Oluokun to MIA 14 for 56 yards (17-J.Waddle).
Q4 · 2:34MIA +15% win prob(2:34) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 86-M.Hollins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 6:03ATL +15% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right tackle to ATL 35 for 2 yards (91-E.Ogbah). FUMBLES (91-E.Ogbah), RECOVERED by MIA-40-N.Needham at ATL 40.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Dolphins
Offensive plays	61	70
Total yards	399	413 (edge)
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.11
Success rate	44%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	6/12	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	20	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	2

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

25/40, 336 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.2 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

32/40, 291 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

5.6 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

15 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

14 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

7/8 for 163 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

7/8 for 85 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	16	75	7:07	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 25	5	-2	1:41	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 27	4	7	1:34	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 17	11	68	5:25	Turnover on downs
5	MIA	MIA 25	10	44	4:17	Turnover on downs
6	ATL	ATL 39	11	61	5:09	Touchdown
7	MIA	MIA 25	10	51	4:11	Interception
8	ATL	ATL 20	6	62	0:32	Turnover on downs
9	MIA	—	1	0	0:04	End of half
10	ATL	ATL 23	5	77	1:07	Touchdown
11	MIA	MIA 25	7	15	3:10	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 30	4	6	1:40	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 42	10	58	3:48	Touchdown
14	ATL	ATL 25	10	25	2:49	Punt
15	MIA	MIA 12	4	18	2:26	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 22	3	2	0:51	Interception
17	MIA	ATL 32	1	0	0:12	Interception
18	ATL	MIA 14	4	10	1:06	Touchdown
19	MIA	MIA 10	11	90	4:22	Touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 9	8	26	2:35	Fumble
21	MIA	ATL 40	10	55	3:27	Touchdown
22	ATL	ATL 25	10	64	2:27	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	25/40	336	2	1	1	11.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	14	60	4.3	1	-0.7
Mike Davis	4	10	2.5	0	0.4
Wayne Gallman	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Matt Ryan	3	0	0.0	0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	7	8	163	0	21%	9.9
Russell Gage	4	6	67	1	15%	4.6
Hayden Hurst	3	4	35	0	10%	1.9
Calvin Ridley	4	10	26	1	26%	-0.4
Tajae Sharpe	2	2	18	0	5%	1.0
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	1	13	0	3%	0.9
Lee Smith	1	2	7	0	5%	-0.1
Keith Smith	1	1	6	0	3%	0.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	5	1	0	13%	-4.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Deion Jones	10	4	1.0	0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	5	5	0.0	1	1
Erik Harris	5	2	0.0	0	0
A.J. Terrell	2	4	0.0	0	1
Richie Grant	4	2	0.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	2	3	0.0	0	3
Grady Jarrett	4	1	0.0	0	0
Duron Harmon	2	2	0.0	0	0
Chris Williamson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Marlon Davidson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	32/40	291	4	2	1	5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Myles Gaskin	15	67	4.5	0.4
Tua Tagovailoa	4	29	7.3	2.3
Salvon Ahmed	7	26	3.7	-0.2
Malcolm Brown	3	10	3.3	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Gesicki	7	8	85	1	20%	6.4
Jaylen Waddle	7	8	83	0	20%	-1.5
Durham Smythe	3	4	37	0	10%	-2.7
Salvon Ahmed	2	2	26	0	5%	2.5
Adam Shaheen	4	5	23	0	13%	-0.4
Mack Hollins	2	3	13	1	8%	1.8
Myles Gaskin	4	4	10	1	10%	-0.3
Isaiah Ford	1	1	10	1	3%	3.0
Preston Williams	1	4	5	0	10%	-0.2
Malcolm Brown	1	1	-1	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Rowe	4	3	0.0	0	1
Christian Wilkins	4	2	0.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	3	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	1	4	0.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jevon Holland	4	0	1.0	0	1
Byron Jones	3	1	0.0	0	0
Nik Needham	2	0	0.0	0	0
Clayton Fejedelem	1	1	0.0	0	0
Xavien Howard	2	0	0.0	1	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -1.5
Closing total: 48.5
ATL moneyline: -129
MIA moneyline: +117

Falcons closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 58 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: ATL 14 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Brian Flores