2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Carolina Panthers

New York GiantsWinner

CAR -3 upsetU 42.5 ✓Panthers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 25–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:28, CAR +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:28CAR — NYG CAR ball · 2nd & 24CAR 61%

(3:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at NYG 5. 24-J.Bradberry to NYG 18 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 19.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:28CAR +16% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at NYG 5. 24-J.Bradberry to NYG 18 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 19.
Q3 · 1:05NYG +9% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 13-D.Pettis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 14:14CAR +8% win prob(14:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 13 for -10 yards (95-D.Brown).
Q3 · 5:39NYG +8% win prob(5:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 28-D.Booker to CAR 48 for 14 yards (28-K.Taylor).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Giants
Offensive plays	62	64
Total yards	173	305 (edge)
Yards per play	2.8	4.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.35	-0.11 (edge)
Success rate	35%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	2/15	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.35.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

23/33, 203 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.0 expected points added · +1.1% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Sam DarnoldQB

16/25, 112 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.5 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Devontae BookerRB

14 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

12 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

6/10 for 73 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Darius SlaytonWR

5/9 for 63 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 27	14	46	6:23	Turnover on downs
2	NYG	NYG 25	7	32	3:30	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 12	4	1	1:24	Punt
4	NYG	CAR 41	9	36	3:07	Turnover on downs
5	CAR	CAR 2	3	2	0:43	Turnover on downs
6	NYG	NYG 37	7	37	2:00	Turnover on downs
7	CAR	CAR 16	5	7	1:06	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 38	5	15	3:34	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 23	9	62	4:54	Interception
10	NYG	NYG 19	7	38	2:24	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 20	4	3	0:47	Punt
12	NYG	NYG 21	1	0	0:08	End of half
13	NYG	NYG 25	5	-12	1:22	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 37	6	13	3:11	Punt
15	NYG	NYG 14	4	6	1:21	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 33	4	8	1:34	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 25	12	75	6:33	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 19	5	1	1:08	Punt
19	NYG	NYG 46	6	19	2:10	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	CAR 25	5	-6	1:15	Punt
21	NYG	NYG 42	10	27	5:32	Turnover on downs
22	CAR	CAR 25	5	-6	1:02	Turnover on downs
23	NYG	CAR 19	2	19	0:06	Touchdown
24	CAR	CAR 25	12	42	1:58	Turnover on downs
25	NYG	NYG 33	5	13	2:48	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/25	112	0	1	3	-10.5
P.J. Walker	3/14	33	0	0	3	-13.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	12	28	2.3	-1.0
Royce Freeman	3	18	6.0	1.2
P.J. Walker	1	13	13.0	3.0
Shi Smith	1	-3	-3.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	6	10	73	26%	2.5
Chuba Hubbard	4	5	28	13%	-0.3
Keith Kirkwood	3	5	17	13%	-0.1
Robbie Chosen	3	9	14	24%	-7.3
Tommy Tremble	2	2	12	5%	1.7
Royce Freeman	1	2	1	5%	-1.6
Ian Thomas	0	2	0	5%	-4.6
Colin Thompson	0	1	0	3%	-1.7
Shi Smith	0	2	0	5%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Sean Chandler	5	3	0.0	0
Jeremy Chinn	4	4	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	1	4	0.0	0
Clay Johnston	2	3	0.0	0
Morgan Fox	1	3	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	2	2	1.0	0
Kenny Robinson	1	3	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	1	2	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	3	0	0.0	1
C.J. Henderson	3	0	0.0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Daniel Jones	23/33	203	1	0	2	-2.0
Dante Pettis	1/1	16	0	0	0	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devontae Booker	14	51	3.6	1	-3.9
Daniel Jones	8	28	3.5	0	0.6
Elijhaa Penny	9	24	2.7	0	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darius Slayton	5	9	63	0	27%	-0.0
Evan Engram	6	8	44	0	24%	-3.2
Dante Pettis	5	5	39	1	15%	2.1
John Ross	2	2	27	0	6%	2.9
Daniel Jones	1	1	16	0	3%	1.0
Devontae Booker	2	3	15	0	9%	1.3
Kyle Rudolph	2	2	8	0	6%	1.0
Collin Johnson	1	2	7	0	6%	-0.6
David Sills	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Leonard Williams	1	5	1.5	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	2	0.0	1
Tae Crowder	1	4	0.0	1
Xavier McKinney	3	2	0.0	1
Azeez Ojulari	3	2	2.5	0
Jabrill Peppers	4	0	1.0	0
Lorenzo Carter	2	2	0.0	0
Dexter Lawrence	3	0	1.0	0
Logan Ryan	2	1	0.0	2
Cam Brown	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -3
Closing total: 42.5
CAR moneyline: -154
NYG moneyline: +139

Panthers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 28 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CAR 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Joe Judge