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New York Giants 25, Panthers 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 3:28, 2nd and 24, on James Bradberry — 16.2 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:28 · 2nd and 24
James Bradberry
Giants
(3:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at NYG 5. 24-J.Bradberry to NYG 18 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 19.
Panthers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 25–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:28, Giants +16.2% win probability on one snap.
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Daniel JonesPanthersQ3 14:14(14:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 13 for -10 yards (95-D.Brown).
8.3pts
Dante PettisGiantsQ3 1:05(1:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 13-D.Pettis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
9.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Giants won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Panthers at 2 of 15 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — -0.03 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — -0.11 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.35 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Panthers167 of 173 plays carry both curves
(3:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at NYG 5. 24-J.Bradberry to NYG 18 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 19.
Swing +16.2 for GiantsExpected points +3.51 for GiantsThe model had Giants 13 points higher than the market did.play 71
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:28CAR +16% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at NYG 5. 24-J.Bradberry to NYG 18 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 19.
3rd · 1:05NYG +9% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 13-D.Pettis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 14:14CAR +8% win prob(14:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 13 for -10 yards (95-D.Brown).
3rd · 5:39NYG +8% win prob(5:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 28-D.Booker to CAR 48 for 14 yards (28-K.Taylor).
3rd · 11:08CAR +8% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at 50 for -8 yards (sack split by 99-L.Williams and 51-A.Ojulari).
2nd · 1:01CAR +6% win prob(1:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Graham Gano's 49-yard field goal with 12:57 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:42Zane Gonzalez·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder R.Winslow · snap J.Jansen+33–0
2nd14:56Giants·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+23–2
2nd12:57Graham Gano·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.KreiterLead never changed again+33–5
3rd1:05Dante Pettis·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+73–12
4th12:47Graham Gano·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+33–15
4th5:58Graham Gano·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+33–18
Giants ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.35Panthers: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.11Giants: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.45Panthers: −0.45 expected points added per play
−0.03Giants: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Panthers: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.21Giants: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 62 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 1, Giants 4.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.35.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's sack or hit rate, 21.7%, is past their previous high of 15.4% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 26 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Giants21.7%
leaned — got home · +10.1 vs their 11.6%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.7%, 10.1 points above their season mean of 11.6% and 1.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at NYG 5. 24-J.Bradberry to NYG 18 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYG 19.
Q2 3:28 · Panthers · 2nd & 24 at NYG 25 · gained nothing · -3.51 EP · −18.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 75 yards from the NYG 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
36%
Yards
475
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.3984%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0973%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1453%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.4144%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Panthers3Giants0
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Giants 27
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Panthers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Panthers 13
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Panthers 1
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Panthers3Giants2
Panthers3Giants5
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Panthers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 23
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Panthers 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Giants 11
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Panthers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 23
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Giants 42
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 20
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Panthers 41
Panthers3Giants11
Panthers3Giants12
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Panthers 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Panthers 20
4th quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Panthers3Giants15
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Panthers 35
Punt6 plays
Panthers3Giants18
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Panthers 26
Turnover on downs5 plays
Panthers3Giants24
Panthers3Giants25
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Giants 29
The period ended6 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Giants 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Pantherscategory by categoryGiants
Panthers3
Giants0
