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2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
BearsChicago3
BY 35final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay38
Chicago Bears 3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38. Final.
Buccaneers -12.5 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Bears 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:04, 4th and 10 — 6.6 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:04 · 4th and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Buccaneers
(13:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at CHI 32 for 43 yards (16-P.O'Donnell).
Buccaneers closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 35.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:04, Buccaneers +6.6% win probability on one snap.
6.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin FieldsBuccaneersQ1 14:20(14:20) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 18 for -7 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], recovered by CHI-24-K.Herbert at CHI 19.
4.1pts
Dee DelaneyBuccaneersQ1 7:27(7:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Delaney [51-K.Minter] at TB 34. 30-D.Delaney ran ob at CHI 40 for 26 yards (71-J.Peters).
5.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bears at 5 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Bears at -0.44 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.63 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 5 touchdowns on 7 trips, against Bears at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Bears166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(13:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at CHI 32 for 43 yards (16-P.O'Donnell).
Swing +6.6 for BuccaneersExpected points +2.26 for BuccaneersThe model had Bears 23 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:04CHI +7% win prob(13:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at CHI 32 for 43 yards (16-P.O'Donnell).
1st · 7:27CHI +6% win prob(7:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Delaney [51-K.Minter] at TB 34. 30-D.Delaney ran ob at CHI 40 for 26 yards (71-J.Peters).
1st · 14:20CHI +4% win prob(14:20) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 18 for -7 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], recovered by CHI-24-K.Herbert at CHI 19.
1st · 13:50TB +3% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 18-J.James to CHI 25 for 6 yards (35-J.Dean).
1st · 8:20CHI +2% win prob(8:20) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-J.Grant to CHI 35 for no gain (28-R.Robinson).
1st · 12:03TB +2% win prob(12:03) 7-L.Fournette up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Leonard Fournette's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 12:03 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:03Leonard Fournette·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:40Chris Godwin·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+70–14
1st0:10Mike Evans·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+70–21
2nd6:13Cairo Santos·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–21
2nd3:38Mike Evans·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+73–28
2nd0:14Mike Evans·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+73–35
4th12:55Ryan Succop·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap C.Tinker+33–38
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Bears0–9Buccaneers
311Total yards408
4.8Yards per play5.8
42%Success rate49%
18%Third-down rate33%
0Red-zone touchdowns5
7Explosive plays11
17First downs25
4Sacks taken0
5Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.44Bears: −0.44 expected points added per play
+0.14Buccaneers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.63Bears: −0.63 expected points added per play
+0.22Buccaneers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Bears: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 65 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 70 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Bears 1, Buccaneers 7.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.44.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's early-down pass rate, 53.6%, is past their previous low of 57.9% in week 6 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 28 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.0%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.6%, 13.0 points below their season mean of 15.6% and 1.3 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Fields pass−9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Delaney [51-K.Minter] at TB 34. 30-D.Delaney ran ob at CHI 40 for 26 yards (71-J.Peters).
Q1 7:27 · Bears · 3rd & 5 at CHI 40 · gained nothing · -4.31 EP · −9.3% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 75 yards from the TB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
41%
Yards
719
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.3765%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.4256%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.5747%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3536%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays
Bears0Buccaneers6
Bears0Buccaneers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 2
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Buccaneers 20
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 40
Bears0Buccaneers13
Bears0Buccaneers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 4
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 40
Bears0Buccaneers20
Bears0Buccaneers21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 9
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter60 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Bears 33
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 42
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 44
No good4 plays
Bears3Buccaneers21
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Buccaneers 10
Bears3Buccaneers27
Bears3Buccaneers28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Bears 2
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 49
Bears3Buccaneers34
Bears3Buccaneers35
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Bears 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Bears 45
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Buccaneers 15
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Bears 1
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Intercepted1 play
Bears3Buccaneers38
Field goal6 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Bears 1
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Bears 37
The period ended12 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Buccaneers 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
