2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium

Chicago Bears

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -12.5 ✓U 47 ✓Buccaneers closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:04, CHI +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:04CHI — TB CHI ball · 4th & 10TB 88%

(13:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at CHI 32 for 43 yards (16-P.O'Donnell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:04CHI +7% win prob(13:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at CHI 32 for 43 yards (16-P.O'Donnell).
Q1 · 7:27CHI +6% win prob(7:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right intended for 12-A.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Delaney [51-K.Minter] at TB 34. 30-D.Delaney ran ob at CHI 40 for 26 yards (71-J.Peters).
Q1 · 14:20CHI +4% win prob(14:20) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 18 for -7 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], recovered by CHI-24-K.Herbert at CHI 19.
Q1 · 13:50TB +3% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 18-J.James to CHI 25 for 6 yards (35-J.Dean).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	65	70
Total yards	311	408 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.44	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	42%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.63	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	2/11	4/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	5	1 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.44.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

20/36, 211 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

22/32, 184 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-25.5 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Khalil HerbertRB

18 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

15 att, 81 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

8/11 for 111 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/10 for 76 yds, 3 TD

26% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	5	0	2:11	Punt
2	TB	CHI 32	3	17	0:51	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 25	6	31	2:11	Punt
4	TB	TB 16	4	0	1:37	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 35	3	5	0:57	Interception
6	TB	CHI 40	7	40	2:36	Touchdown
7	CHI	CHI 25	6	10	2:30	Fumble
8	TB	CHI 35	6	35	2:01	Touchdown
9	CHI	CHI 25	5	8	0:58	Punt
10	TB	TB 29	6	13	1:44	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 29	4	11	2:06	Fumble
12	TB	CHI 25	4	0	0:17	Turnover on downs
13	CHI	CHI 33	10	57	3:53	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 25	7	75	2:33	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 25	7	25	1:41	Turnover on downs
16	TB	CHI 48	11	43	1:45	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 25	2	8	0:09	End of half
18	TB	TB 17	8	37	3:00	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 20	8	65	4:33	Interception
20	TB	TB 33	12	73	7:08	Fumble
21	CHI	CHI 2	2	-1	0:26	Interception
22	TB	CHI 37	6	33	2:02	Turnover on downs
23	CHI	CHI 25	9	31	4:53	Punt
24	TB	TB 20	9	42	5:31	Punt
25	CHI	CHI 14	10	61	2:27	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Fields	22/32	184	0	3	4	-25.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Khalil Herbert	18	100	5.6	0.5
Justin Fields	8	38	4.8	-2.2
Damien Williams	3	5	1.7	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Kmet	5	6	43	19%	-0.2
Darnell Mooney	2	5	39	16%	-4.7
Khalil Herbert	5	5	33	16%	0.5
Jesse James	3	3	20	10%	0.5
Allen Robinson	2	4	16	13%	-5.6
Marquise Goodwin	2	4	16	13%	0.6
Damiere Byrd	1	1	10	3%	1.6
Ryan Nall	1	1	4	3%	-1.9
Damien Williams	1	1	3	3%	-0.2
Jesper Horsted	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
DeAndre Houston-Carson	7	4	1
Eddie Jackson	4	7	0
Roquan Smith	6	5	1
Alec Ogletree	4	0	0
Kindle Vildor	2	1	2
Bilal Nichols	2	0	0
Duke Shelley	2	0	1
Khyiris Tonga	2	0	0
Danny Trevathan	1	1	0
Angelo Blackson	1	1	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	20/36	211	4	0	0	9.3
Blaine Gabbert	2/3	15	0	0	0	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	15	81	5.4	1	1.9
Ronald Jones	10	63	6.3	0	-1.7
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	5	27	5.4	0	0.3
Jaelon Darden	1	11	11.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	8	11	111	1	28%	7.8
Mike Evans	6	10	76	3	26%	8.8
Tyler Johnson	2	2	16	0	5%	1.8
Leonard Fournette	2	4	9	0	10%	-2.9
O.J. Howard	1	3	9	0	8%	-0.8
Giovani Bernard	2	3	5	0	8%	-1.5
Jaelon Darden	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3
Cameron Brate	0	4	0	0	10%	-2.7
Deon Yelder	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	8	2	0.0	0	0
Jamel Dean	6	0	0.0	0	0
Dee Delaney	4	1	0.0	1	1
Kevin Minter	3	2	0.0	0	0
Ross Cockrell	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	1	2.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	1	1.0	0	0
Vita Vea	2	1	0.0	0	1
Antoine Winfield	2	1	1.0	0	0
Andrew Adams	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -12.5
Closing total: 47
CHI moneyline: +501
TB moneyline: -644

Buccaneers closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 47; the game landed 41 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CHI 7 days · TB 10 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Bruce Arians