2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -6.5 upsetO 45.5 ✓Ravens closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 6:02, BAL +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:02CIN — BAL CIN ball · 3rd & 2CIN 53%

(6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:02BAL +21% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:13BAL +11% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 87-C.Uzomah for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:40BAL +11% win prob(6:40) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 87-C.Uzomah for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:30BAL +10% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews to CIN 26 for 23 yards (24-V.Bell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Ravens
Offensive plays	62	71
Total yards	520 (edge)	393
Yards per play	8.4 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.30 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	44% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	61%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.52 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.07 (edge)
Third downs	4/13	5/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11	11
First downs gained on snaps	18	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

23/38, 416 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

19.8 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

15/31, 257 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-9.3 expected points added · -13.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

12 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

6.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

12 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

8/10 for 201 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 12.9 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

C.J. UzomahTE

3/3 for 91 yds, 2 TD

8% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	10	36	2:48	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 20	7	2	3:10	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 43	8	23	3:54	Turnover on downs
4	BAL	BAL 25	5	4	1:00	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 29	4	4	1:38	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 23	8	50	3:27	Turnover on downs
7	CIN	CIN 25	5	9	2:21	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 29	7	41	4:36	Punt
9	CIN	CIN 20	3	64	0:37	Touchdown
10	BAL	BAL 25	12	75	4:38	Touchdown
11	CIN	CIN 25	11	63	1:48	Turnover on downs
12	BAL	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
13	BAL	BAL 25	5	75	1:40	Touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 25	6	75	2:14	Touchdown
15	BAL	BAL 25	9	34	3:39	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 10	4	90	1:39	Touchdown
17	BAL	BAL 25	6	10	2:11	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 15	11	69	3:46	Interception
19	BAL	BAL 20	8	28	3:12	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	BAL 38	5	38	2:15	Touchdown
21	BAL	BAL 25	6	29	1:31	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	BAL 44	3	49	0:54	Touchdown
23	BAL	BAL 25	5	-1	0:44	Punt
24	CIN	CIN 30	4	-5	2:26	Punt
25	BAL	BAL 16	8	40	1:37	Turnover on downs
26	CIN	CIN 44	4	5	1:51	Turnover on downs
27	BAL	CIN 49	1	6	0:21	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 90 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	23/38	416	3	1	1	19.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	12	59	4.9	1	1.8
Samaje Perine	11	52	4.7	1	-2.1
Joe Burrow	1	0	0.0	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	8	10	201	1	28%	12.9
C.J. Uzomah	3	3	91	2	8%	8.3
Tee Higgins	7	15	62	0	42%	0.3
Tyler Boyd	4	7	39	0	19%	-2.8
Samaje Perine	1	1	23	0	3%	3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Logan Wilson	5	2	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	3	3	0.0	0
Akeem Davis-Gaither	3	3	0.0	1
Sam Hubbard	3	2	2.5	1
Vonn Bell	5	0	0.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	4	1	0.0	1
Larry Ogunjobi	3	1	1.5	0
Germaine Pratt	3	0	0.0	0
Jalen Davis	0	2	0.0	1
Markus Bailey	1	1	0.0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	15/31	257	1	0	5	-9.3
Tyler Huntley	5/11	39	0	0	0	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	12	88	7.3	0	6.4
Devonta Freeman	4	14	3.5	1	1.3
Ty'Son Williams	2	10	5.0	0	-1.3
Le'Veon Bell	5	5	1.0	0	-1.8
Devin Duvernay	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	5	14	80	1	34%	-4.3
Rashod Bateman	3	6	80	0	15%	2.6
Mark Andrews	3	7	48	0	17%	0.3
Josh Oliver	2	5	29	0	12%	-1.7
Devonta Freeman	3	3	25	0	7%	0.6
Ty'Son Williams	2	2	24	0	5%	-1.3
Devin Duvernay	1	1	11	0	2%	0.8
James Proche	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
Le'Veon Bell	1	2	-1	0	5%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Marlon Humphrey	4	3	0.0	1	1
Anthony Averett	7	0	0.0	0	3
Josh Bynes	5	1	0.0	0	0
Tyus Bowser	1	4	0.5	0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	1	3	0.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	1	3	0.5	0	0
Tavon Young	2	0	0.0	0	1
Chuck Clark	1	1	0.0	0	0
DeShon Elliott	1	1	0.0	0	0
Patrick Queen	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -6.5
Closing total: 45.5
CIN moneyline: +236
BAL moneyline: -272

Ravens closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 58 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: CIN 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.