For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bengals173 of 182 plays carry both curves
(6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.8 for RavensExpected points −7.10 for RavensThe model had Bengals 7 points higher than the market did.play 113
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:02BAL +21% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:13BAL +11% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 87-C.Uzomah for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:40BAL +11% win prob(6:40) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 87-C.Uzomah for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:30BAL +10% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 89-M.Andrews to CIN 26 for 23 yards (24-V.Bell).
3rd · 14:13BAL +10% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 12-R.Bateman to CIN 39 for 35 yards (21-M.Hilton).
2nd · 0:32BAL +9% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase ran ob at BAL 19 for 26 yards (36-C.Clark).
3rd · 8:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.J. Uzomah's 32-yard touchdown catch with 11:13 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:13Evan McPherson·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–0
2nd14:08Justin Tucker·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap N.Moore+33–3
2nd6:40C.J. Uzomah·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+710–3
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Ravens, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.30Bengals: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.14Ravens: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.52Bengals: +0.52 expected points added per play
−0.21Ravens: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Bengals: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.07Ravens: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 62 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Ravens’s 71 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 7, Ravens 2.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.30 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +8.2 pts, is past their previous high of +1.3 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 45.5% in week 6 against 70.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.5 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Ravens15.8%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 8.2 pts, 8.6 points above their season mean of -0.4 pts and 1.0 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%63 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Full-time89%56 snaps
79Jackson CarmanG · Full-time89%56 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Full-time89%56 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Full-time89%56 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time84%53 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Full-time83%52 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation71%45 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation67%42 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational48%30 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational43%27 snaps
19Auden TateWR · Rotational29%18 snaps
75Isaiah PrinceT · Situational16%10 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Situational13%8 snaps
63Trey HillC · Situational11%7 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Situational11%7 snaps
8Brandon AllenQB · Situational11%7 snaps
16Trenton IrwinWR · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 4
Nick McCloudCBDarius HodgeDETyler ShelvinNTMike ThomasWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 6:02 · Bengals · 3rd & 2 at CIN 18 · gained 82 · +7.10 EP · +20.5% win probability
171 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 90 yards from the CIN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
37%
Yards
913
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.4080%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.0354%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.5681%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.0213%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.2043%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2917%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Punt11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 39
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bengals3Ravens0
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Ravens 34
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 29
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 33
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Bengals 49
2nd quarter48 plays
Bengals3Ravens3
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 34
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Bengals 37
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
Bengals9Ravens3
Bengals10Ravens3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 45
Bengals10Ravens9
Bengals10Ravens10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 1
Bengals13Ravens10
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Bengals13Ravens16
Bengals13Ravens17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bengals19Ravens17
Bengals20Ravens17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 32
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Bengals 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bengals26Ravens17
Bengals27Ravens17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 18
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 35
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Ravens 9
4th quarter52 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 38
Bengals33Ravens17
Bengals34Ravens17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 38 to the Ravens 21
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 43
Bengals40Ravens17
Bengals41Ravens17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Ravens 41
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 33
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Bengals 44
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Bengals 49
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
