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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 21, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 7
It turned at Q4 5:23, 3rd and 10, on Javonte Williams — 9.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Cleveland Browns 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:23, Broncos +9.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:23 · 3rd and 10
Javonte Williams
Broncos
(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 1 chunk play.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Browns at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.07 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D'Ernest Johnson's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 12:29 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryBrowns
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 49 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Browns’s 66 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Browns 4.
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CLE's pass rate over expected, +3.9 pts, is past their previous high of −1.4 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos5.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.8 vs their -4.6 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 49 snaps
Browns3.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.6 vs their -4.7 pts, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 80%
Tendencies room →Broncos67.6%leaned — passed early · +15.4 vs their 52.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 37 early downs
Browns50.0%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -38% to 129%
Fourth Down room →Broncos33.3%right on their number · −1.3 vs their 34.6%, and they swing ±24.6 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Browns—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 45.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 38%
Tendencies room →Broncos13.9%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Browns14.3%right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
DEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.2 pts, 9.8 points above their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · CLE
21/33, 199 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.8 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
23/33, 187 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
6.3 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
5/5 for 68 yds, 0 TD
16% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
D'Ernest Johnson banked 9.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 24.8 | +9.3 | 69% | 56% | 6% | 0% | 22 car, 146 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 22 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 17.2 | +5.4 | 42% | 43% | 22% | 0% | 4 car, 20 yd · 6/7, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/33, 187 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Case KeenumQB · Starter QB | 12.7 | −4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/33, 199 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 7 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +4.1 | 94% | 94% | 16% | 35% | 5/5, 68 yd |
| Melvin GordonRB · Committee Back | 11.2 | +2.5 | 58% | 57% | 9% | 2% | 8 car, 18 yd · 2/3, 14 yd, 1 TD |
| Noah FantTE · Featured Receiver | 8.9 | −0.2 | 90% | 91% | 22% | 13% | 5/7, 39 yd |
| Jarvis LandryWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.7 | −4.0 | 54% | 56% | 25% | 27% | 5/8, 37 yd |
| Johnny StantonRB | 7.6 | +2.7 | 15% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 5 yd · 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Demetric FeltonRB | 6.4 | +0.7 | 31% | 36% | 9% | 0% | 2 car, 13 yd · 3/3, 21 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +2.3 | 65% | 56% | 9% | 1% | 2/3, 42 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Featured Receiver | 4.3 | −7.2 | 61% | 64% | 19% | 36% | 2/6, 23 yd |
| Anthony SchwartzWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −2.7 | 41% | 47% | 9% | 30% | 1 car, -2 yd · 2/3, 22 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +1.0 | 59% | 56% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Tim PatrickWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −5.0 | 94% | 97% | 16% | 35% | 2/5, 16 yd |
| Kendall HintonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +0.8 | 48% | 49% | 6% | 5% | 2/2, 15 yd |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −1.0 | 42% | 36% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| John KellyRB | 1.3 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Eric SaubertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | 0.0 | 42% | 37% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Rashard HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | −1.8 | 59% | 50% | 6% | 4% | 1/2, -2 yd |
| John BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyrie ClevelandWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Diontae SpencerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:23 · Broncos · 3rd & goal at CLE 10 · gained 10 · +3.18 EP · +10.0% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 156 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 80 yards from the CLE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos0
Browns6Broncos0Browns7Broncos0Browns10Broncos6Browns10Broncos7Browns10Broncos7Browns16Broncos7Browns17Broncos13Browns17Broncos14Browns17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 23/33 | 187 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +6.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Teddy Bridgewater |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 16% | +4.7 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 22% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Darby | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Purcell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 21/33 | 199 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_07_DEN_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Browns closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 31 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 20.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.5 |
| 0 |
| +1.8 |
| +0.5 |
| Javonte Williams | 6 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 22% | +4.2 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 16% | −0.0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +1.8 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 9% | +2.8 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| John Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.4 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryce Callahan | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Reed | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 22 | 146 | 6.6 | 1 | +7.2 |
| Demetric Felton | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| John Kelly | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Case Keenum | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Johnny Stanton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 9% | +2.4 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 25% | −0.4 |
| Odell Beckham | 2 | 6 | 23 | 0 | 19% | −0.4 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9% | −0.3 |
| Demetric Felton | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 9% | +1.1 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Johnny Stanton | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Walker | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Harrison | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mack Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Takitaki | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Greg Newsome | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Elliott | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
