2021 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 21, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Denver Broncos

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -2 ✓U 40.5 ✓27 mph windBrowns closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.

Cleveland Browns 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:23, CLE +10% win probability on one snap. Played in 27 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:23DEN — CLE DEN ball · 3rd & 10CLE 88%

(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:23CLE +10% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:58CLE +9% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum scrambles up the middle to DEN 1 for 5 yards (29-B.Callahan; 40-J.Strnad).
Q3 · 7:53CLE +8% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 25-M.Gordon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:32CLE +7% win prob(4:32) 5-C.Keenum pass short left to 30-D.Johnson pushed ob at DEN 23 for 18 yards (40-J.Strnad) [53-J.Cooper].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Browns
Offensive plays	49	66
Total yards	223	377 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.11	0.23 (edge)
Success rate	47%	59% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18	0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07	0.28 (edge)
Third downs	5/11	9/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Case KeenumQB

21/33, 199 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.8 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Teddy BridgewaterQB

23/33, 187 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.3 expected points added · +5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

D'Ernest JohnsonRB

22 att, 146 yds, 1 TD

7.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

8 att, 18 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

5/5 for 68 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Austin HooperTE

2/3 for 42 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	7	75	2:40	Touchdown
2	DEN	DEN 25	5	9	2:07	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 23	12	58	7:04	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 18	7	46	3:16	Interception
5	CLE	CLE 20	8	32	4:01	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 13	4	12	2:15	Punt
7	CLE	CLE 31	13	51	6:47	Turnover on downs
8	DEN	DEN 31	4	2	0:48	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 20	4	-2	0:39	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 30	1	7	0:23	End of half
11	DEN	DEN 21	15	79	7:12	Touchdown
12	CLE	CLE 25	15	80	7:21	Touchdown
13	DEN	DEN 25	5	3	1:00	Punt
14	CLE	CLE 22	7	16	3:02	Punt
15	DEN	DEN 20	18	65	6:08	Touchdown
16	CLE	CLE 26	11	67	5:17	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 80 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	23/33	187	2	1	2	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	4	20	5.0	0.1
Melvin Gordon	8	18	2.3	-2.8
Teddy Bridgewater	2	3	1.5	1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	5	5	68	0	16%	4.7
Noah Fant	5	7	39	0	22%	0.5
Javonte Williams	6	7	32	1	22%	4.2
Tim Patrick	2	5	16	0	16%	-0.0
Kendall Hinton	2	2	15	0	6%	1.8
Melvin Gordon	2	3	14	1	9%	2.8
Eric Saubert	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.0
Tyrie Cleveland	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
John Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ronald Darby	6	2	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	5	3	0.0	0
Mike Purcell	5	1	0.0	0
Justin Strnad	2	4	0.0	0
Bryce Callahan	3	2	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	3	2	0.0	1
Jonathon Cooper	2	3	0.0	0
Shelby Harris	3	1	1.0	0
DeShawn Williams	1	3	0.0	0
Malik Reed	1	3	0.0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	21/33	199	1	0	1	4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Ernest Johnson	22	146	6.6	1	7.2
Demetric Felton	2	13	6.5	0	0.7
John Kelly	2	13	6.5	0	0.2
Case Keenum	4	7	1.8	0	-1.0
Johnny Stanton	2	5	2.5	0	1.0
Anthony Schwartz	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Hooper	2	3	42	0	9%	2.4
Jarvis Landry	5	8	37	0	25%	-0.4
Odell Beckham	2	6	23	0	19%	-0.4
D'Ernest Johnson	2	2	22	0	6%	1.5
Anthony Schwartz	2	3	22	0	9%	-0.3
Demetric Felton	3	3	21	0	9%	1.1
David Njoku	2	2	18	0	6%	2.4
Harrison Bryant	1	2	15	0	6%	0.8
Johnny Stanton	1	1	1	1	3%	0.5
Rashard Higgins	1	2	-2	0	6%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Walker	7	3	0.0	0	0
Ronnie Harrison	3	2	0.0	0	0
Mack Wilson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	1	2	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	1	2	1.5	0	0
John Johnson	2	1	0.0	1	1
Greg Newsome	3	0	0.0	0	1
Jordan Elliott	1	1	0.0	0	0
Malik Jackson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	1	1	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -2
Closing total: 40.5
DEN moneyline: +110
CLE moneyline: -121

Browns closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 31 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 27 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: DEN 4 days · CLE 4 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 27 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.