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Cleveland Browns 17, Broncos 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:23, 3rd and 10, on Javonte Williams — 9.6 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:23 · 3rd and 10
Javonte Williams
Broncos
(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.1 mph wind
Browns closed -2 and covered, winning by 3.
Cleveland Browns 17–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:23, Broncos +9.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Melvin GordonBroncosQ3 7:53(7:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 25-M.Gordon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.7pts
Case KeenumBrownsQ3 0:58(:58) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum scrambles up the middle to DEN 1 for 5 yards (29-B.Callahan; 40-J.Strnad).
8.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Broncos at 1 chunk play.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Browns at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.07 expected points per carry.
(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.6 for BrownsExpected points −3.18 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 138
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:23CLE +10% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:58CLE +9% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum scrambles up the middle to DEN 1 for 5 yards (29-B.Callahan; 40-J.Strnad).
3rd · 7:53CLE +8% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 25-M.Gordon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:32CLE +7% win prob(4:32) 5-C.Keenum pass short left to 30-D.Johnson pushed ob at DEN 23 for 18 yards (40-J.Strnad) [53-J.Cooper].
4th · 2:36CLE +6% win prob(2:36) 30-D.Johnson right tackle to DEN 23 for 7 yards (31-J.Simmons; 22-K.Jackson).
2nd · 15:00DEN +6% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle intended for 17-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at CLE -4. Touchback.
2nd · 0:35
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D'Ernest Johnson's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 12:29 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:29D'Ernest Johnson·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st3:14Chase McLaughlin·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+30–10
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Broncos: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.23Browns: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Broncos: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.19Browns: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Broncos: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.28Browns: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 49 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Browns’s 66 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Browns 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, +3.9 pts, is past their previous high of −1.4 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Browns14.3%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.2 pts, 9.8 points above their season mean of -4.6 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass+10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:23 · Broncos · 3rd & goal at CLE 10 · gained 10 · +3.18 EP · +10.0% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 80 yards from the CLE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
47%
Yards
599
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2956%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1977%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0361%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13+0.0531%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.5088%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.3629%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3140%
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Broncos0Browns6
Broncos0Browns7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Broncos 4
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Broncos0Browns10
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Broncos 34
The period ended8 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Browns 31
2nd quarter41 plays
Intercepted1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Broncos 48
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 20
No good14 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Broncos 20
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 33
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Broncos6Browns10
Broncos7Browns10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Browns 8
Broncos7Browns16
Broncos7Browns17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Broncos 1
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 40
Broncos13Browns17
Broncos14Browns17
Touchdown19 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Browns 10
The period ended17 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Broncos 12
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
