2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · SoFi Stadium

Detroit Lions

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -17 no coverU 51 ✓DomeRams closed -17, won by 9 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 28–19. Biggest swing: Q1 12:07, DET +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:07DET — LA LA ballLA 91%

4-A.Seibert kicks onside 12 yards from DET 35 to DET 47, impetus ends at DET 45. RECOVERED by DET-21-T.Walker.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:07DET +17% win prob4-A.Seibert kicks onside 12 yards from DET 35 to DET 47, impetus ends at DET 45. RECOVERED by DET-21-T.Walker.
Q4 · 5:03DET +17% win prob(5:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [99-A.Donald] at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (73-J.Jackson).
Q3 · 0:23LA +17% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at DET 19 for 59 yards (21-T.Walker).
Q2 · 8:41LA +12% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Rams
Offensive plays	65	60
Total yards	415 (edge)	378
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	6.3
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.18 (edge)
Success rate	48% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	58%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08	0.35 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	6/15	9/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	18	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Lions outgained Rams 415–378 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

28/41, 334 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.1 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

22/36, 268 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jamaal WilliamsRB

12 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

D'Andre SwiftRB

13 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

10/13 for 156 yds, 2 TD

32% of team targets · 11.9 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kalif RaymondWR

6/8 for 115 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	8	75	2:53	Touchdown
2	LA	DET 47	11	35	4:39	Turnover on downs
3	LA	LA 18	11	67	4:33	Turnover on downs
4	DET	DET 25	9	56	4:15	Turnover on downs
5	LA	LA 16	13	47	5:04	Touchdown
6	DET	DET 30	5	13	1:29	Punt
7	LA	LA 26	12	79	5:44	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	9	57	1:19	Turnover on downs
9	LA	LA 25	2	0	0:04	End of half
10	LA	LA 19	9	14	2:33	Punt
11	DET	DET 21	11	46	6:13	Turnover on downs
12	LA	LA 18	5	31	2:18	Turnover on downs
13	DET	DET 46	6	41	2:13	Turnover on downs
14	LA	LA 10	10	92	2:44	Touchdown
15	DET	DET 25	16	73	9:06	Interception
16	LA	LA 23	9	48	3:55	Turnover on downs
17	DET	DET 25	5	19	0:33	Interception
18	LA	DET 46	1	0	0:25	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 92 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	22/36	268	1	2	2	-1.6
Jack Fox	1/1	17	0	0	0	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jamaal Williams	12	57	4.8	3.7
D'Andre Swift	13	48	3.7	-6.0
C.J. Moore	1	28	28.0	4.8
Jared Goff	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Kalif Raymond	1	1	1.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kalif Raymond	6	8	115	0	25%	4.3
D'Andre Swift	8	10	96	1	31%	5.3
T.J. Hockenson	6	9	48	0	28%	-4.5
Bobby Price	1	1	17	0	3%	4.2
Darren Fells	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
KhaDarel Hodge	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.4
Geronimo Allison	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	6	3	0.0	0
Tracy Walker III	4	4	0.0	1
Alex Anzalone	4	2	0.0	0
Jerry Jacobs	4	1	0.0	1
Will Harris	3	1	0.0	0
Charles Harris	2	2	0.0	0
Trey Flowers	1	2	0.0	0
Amani Oruwariye	2	1	0.0	0
Julian Okwara	2	1	1.0	1
A.J. Parker	1	2	0.0	1

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	28/41	334	3	0	1	15.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Darrell Henderson	15	45	3.0	-2.7
Sony Michel	2	4	2.0	-1.8
Matthew Stafford	2	-2	-1.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	10	13	156	2	32%	11.9
Robert Woods	6	6	70	0	15%	8.9
Tyler Higbee	5	8	46	0	20%	-0.7
Van Jefferson	4	7	43	1	17%	1.0
Darrell Henderson	3	6	19	0	15%	-3.2
DeSean Jackson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Fuller	3	6	0.0	0	0
Troy Reeder	3	5	0.0	0	0
Kenny Young	3	4	1.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	3	4	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	4	2	0.0	1	1
Sebastian Joseph	2	2	1.0	0	0
Greg Gaines	3	1	0.0	0	0
A'Shawn Robinson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Taylor Rapp	2	0	0.0	0	0
David Long	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -17
Closing total: 51
DET moneyline: +860
LA moneyline: -1256

Rams closed -17, won by 9 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51; the game landed 47 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: DET 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Sean McVay