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Los Angeles Rams 28, Lions 19 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:07 — 17.3 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:07
Unnamed on the sheet
Lions
4-A.Seibert kicks onside 12 yards from DET 35 to DET 47, impetus ends at DET 45. RECOVERED by DET-21-T.Walker.
Dome
Rams closed -17, won by 9 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 28–19. Biggest swing: Q1 12:07, Lions +17.3% win probability on one snap.
17.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cooper KuppRamsQ3 0:23(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at DET 19 for 59 yards (21-T.Walker).
16.6pts
Jalen RamseyRamsQ4 5:03(5:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [99-A.Donald] at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (73-J.Jackson).
16.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 9 of 13 on third down, against Lions at 6 of 15 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Lions at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 26.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 53 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Lions164 of 176 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 12:07Lions 7 — Rams 0LA ballLA 91%
Lions 9%Rams 91%
4-A.Seibert kicks onside 12 yards from DET 35 to DET 47, impetus ends at DET 45. RECOVERED by DET-21-T.Walker.
Swing −17.3 for RamsExpected points −4.29 for RamsThe model had Lions 53 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:07DET +17% win prob4-A.Seibert kicks onside 12 yards from DET 35 to DET 47, impetus ends at DET 45. RECOVERED by DET-21-T.Walker.
4th · 5:03DET +17% win prob(5:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [99-A.Donald] at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (73-J.Jackson).
3rd · 0:23LA +17% win prob(:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at DET 19 for 59 yards (21-T.Walker).
2nd · 8:41LA +12% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:32DET +11% win prob(7:32) 4-A.Seibert 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
3rd · 6:19DET +10% win prob(6:19) (No Huddle) 32-D.Swift up the middle to LA 18 for no gain (41-K.Young; 26-T.Burgess).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cooper Kupp's 5-yard touchdown catch with 14:04 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st12:21D'Andre Swift·63-yd TD catch63-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+77–0
1st7:32Austin Seibert·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+310–0
1st2:59Matt Gay·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+310–3
2nd13:45Austin Seibert·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+313–3
2nd8:41Van Jefferson·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+713–10
2nd1:26Cooper Kupp·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+713–17
2nd0:09Austin Seibert·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+316–17
3rd1:47Austin Seibert·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+319–17
4th14:04Cooper Kupp·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point goodLead never changed again+819–25
4th1:03Matt Gay·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Orzech+319–28
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryRams
Lions4–5Rams
415Total yards378
6.4Yards per play6.3
48%Success rate45%
40%Third-down rate69%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays6
18First downs20
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.18Rams: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Lions: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.35Rams: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.26Rams: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 65 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Rams’s 60 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, Rams 4.
NoteLions outgained Rams 415-378 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's sack or hit rate, 2.3%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 0.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 5.6% in week 5.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
LA's pass rate over expected, +13.1 pts, is past their previous high of +11.0 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 6.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Rams10.5%
right on their number · −2.2 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.1 pts, 10.3 points above their season mean of 2.8 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Every snap100%69 snaps
72Halapoulivaati VaitaiG · Every snap100%69 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%69 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Full-time81%56 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Full-time80%55 snaps
32D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Heavy rotation62%43 snaps
18Khadarel HodgeWR · Rotational48%33 snaps
13Geronimo AllisonWR · Rotational46%32 snaps
80Darren FellsTE · Rotational41%28 snaps
30Jamaal WilliamsRB · Rotational29%20 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Rotational25%17 snaps
85Tom KennedyWR · Situational13%9 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mark GilbertCBJessie LemonierDEEric BanksDTJason CabindaFBJermar JeffersonRBDean MarloweSSTrinity BensonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
David BloughQB
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Every snap100%65 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%65 snaps
55Brian AllenC · Every snap100%65 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%65 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%65 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Full-time98%64 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time97%63 snaps
2Robert WoodsWR · Full-time97%63 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Full-time94%61 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Full-time88%57 snaps
25Sony MichelRB · Situational12%8 snaps
1DeSean JacksonWR · Situational6%4 snaps
86Kendall BlantonTE · Situational3%2 snaps
18Ben SkowronekWR · Situational2%1 snap
70Joseph NoteboomT · Situational2%1 snap
15Tutu AtwellWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Chris GarrettLBBobby BrownNTBryce PerkinsQBAlaric JacksonTTremayne AnchrumTBrycen HopkinsTE
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [99-A.Donald] at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (73-J.Jackson).
Q4 5:03 · Lions · 2nd & 10 at LA 12 · gained nothing · -5.48 EP · −26.9% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 90 yards from the LA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
791
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.1872%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1070%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.4438%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.6014%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Lions6Rams0
Lions7Rams0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 37
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, one receiver, one punter, three linebackers, one long snapper and three backsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and three backsPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Lions10Rams0
Field goal12 plays
Lions10Rams3
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Lions 15
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 36
2nd quarter55 plays
Lions13Rams3
Field goal5 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Rams 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Lions13Rams9
Lions13Rams10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Lions 11
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 38
Lions13Rams16
Lions13Rams17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Lions 2
Lions16Rams17
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 45
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, one receiver, one punter, three linebackers, one long snapper and three backsDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and four backs
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Lions 33 to the Rams 18
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Lions 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Lions19Rams17
Field goal6 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Rams 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 24
4th quarter42 plays
Lions19Rams23
Lions19Rams25
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted18 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Rams 12
Lions19Rams28
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Lions 29
Intercepted5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 44
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
