2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · State Farm Stadium

Houston Texans

Arizona CardinalsWinner

ARI -20.5 ✓U 47 ✓DomeCardinals closed -20.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Arizona Cardinals 31–5 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:27, HOU +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:27HOU — ARI HOU ball · 3rd & 2ARI 82%

(4:27) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle to ARI 29 for 2 yards (91-M.Dogbe). PENALTY on HOU-88-J.Akins, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 31 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:27HOU +7% win prob(4:27) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle to ARI 29 for 2 yards (91-M.Dogbe). PENALTY on HOU-88-J.Akins, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 31 - No Play.
Q1 · 10:19HOU +6% win prob(10:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 18 for -14 yards (55-D.Walker).
Q2 · 3:46ARI +6% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green pushed ob at HOU 4 for 41 yards (1-L.Johnson).
Q2 · 14:24ARI +6% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to ARI 37 for 8 yards (37-T.Thomas).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Cardinals
Offensive plays	49	67
Total yards	160	398 (edge)
Yards per play	3.3	5.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.46	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	29%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.48	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	2/13	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	6	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Cardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.46.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

20/28, 261 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.6 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Davis MillsQB

23/32, 135 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-16.4 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Chase EdmondsRB

15 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

James ConnerRB

10 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Zach ErtzTE

3/5 for 66 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

A.J. GreenWR

3/3 for 66 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 17	7	15	2:23	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 27	4	-6	1:41	Punt
3	ARI	ARI 44	4	0	2:33	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 36	8	33	5:17	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 2	1	-2	0:08	Turnover on downs
6	HOU	HOU 40	6	30	3:03	Turnover on downs
7	ARI	ARI 25	16	75	5:54	Touchdown
8	HOU	HOU 25	7	9	3:18	Fumble
9	ARI	HOU 49	7	63	2:58	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 25	5	17	1:08	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 26	8	55	1:32	Turnover on downs
12	HOU	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
13	HOU	HOU 25	8	23	3:29	Punt
14	ARI	ARI 12	8	88	3:33	Touchdown
15	HOU	HOU 25	5	8	1:32	Punt
16	ARI	ARI 24	5	5	2:05	Interception
17	HOU	ARI 46	4	6	2:02	Punt
18	ARI	ARI 20	4	-4	1:44	Punt
19	HOU	ARI 42	4	5	1:20	Turnover on downs
20	ARI	ARI 37	8	63	3:53	Touchdown
21	HOU	HOU 25	5	2	1:20	Punt
22	ARI	ARI 4	7	26	4:23	Punt
23	HOU	HOU 21	7	33	1:42	Turnover on downs
24	ARI	HOU 49	5	14	2:57	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 88 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Davis Mills	23/32	135	0	0	2	-16.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	7	25	3.6	-3.1
Mark Ingram	6	9	1.5	-3.0
Phillip Lindsay	2	8	4.0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	2	5	28	16%	-2.3
David Johnson	5	6	27	19%	-3.0
Brandin Cooks	5	7	21	23%	-5.3
Mark Ingram	3	3	18	10%	1.1
Danny Amendola	3	5	17	16%	0.9
Jordan Akins	2	2	13	6%	1.5
Pharaoh Brown	3	3	11	10%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lonnie Johnson	6	3	0.0	1	1
Justin Reid	4	3	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	3	4	0.0	0	1
Desmond King	5	1	0.0	0	0
Kamu Grugier-Hill	3	2	0.0	0	0
DeMarcus Walker	4	0	1.0	0	0
Jake Martin	2	2	0.0	0	1
Tavierre Thomas	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jonathan Greenard	3	1	2.0	0	1
Ross Blacklock	1	1	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	20/28	261	3	1	4	8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Edmonds	15	81	5.4	0	0.4
James Conner	10	64	6.4	1	0.5
Kyler Murray	6	10	1.7	0	-1.6
Jonathan Ward	1	7	7.0	0	0.7
Eno Benjamin	2	7	3.5	0	-0.0
Zach Ertz	1	4	4.0	0	0.5
Colt McCoy	2	-1	-0.5	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	3	5	66	1	18%	1.0
A.J. Green	3	3	66	0	11%	6.6
DeAndre Hopkins	7	9	53	1	32%	2.8
Christian Kirk	4	5	50	1	18%	6.1
Rondale Moore	2	3	17	0	11%	-0.5
Chase Edmonds	1	3	9	0	11%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Isaiah Simmons	4	3	0.0
Jalen Thompson	4	1	0.0
Byron Murphy	2	2	0.0
Marco Wilson	4	0	0.0
Markus Golden	2	1	2.0
Zaven Collins	1	2	0.0
Deionte Thompson	2	1	0.0
Jordan Hicks	2	0	0.0
Antonio Hamilton	1	1	0.0
Budda Baker	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -20.5
Closing total: 47
HOU moneyline: +1119
ARI moneyline: -1766

Cardinals closed -20.5 and covered, winning by 26.

Total closed 47; the game landed 36 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: HOU 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: David Culley vs Kliff Kingsbury