For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · State Farm Stadium
Final
TexansHouston5
BY 26final margin
CardinalsArizona31
Houston Texans 5 at Arizona Cardinals 31. Final.
Cardinals -20.5 ✓U 47 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 7
Arizona Cardinals 31, Texans 5 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 4:27, 3rd and 2, on David Johnson — 6.7 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:27 · 3rd and 2
David Johnson
Cardinals
(4:27) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle to ARI 29 for 2 yards (91-M.Dogbe). PENALTY on HOU-88-J.Akins, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 31 - No Play.
Dome
Cardinals closed -20.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Arizona Cardinals 31–5 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:27, Cardinals +6.7% win probability on one snap.
6.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler MurrayTexansQ1 10:19(10:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 18 for -14 yards (55-D.Walker).
5.8pts
A.J. GreenCardinalsQ2 3:46(3:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green pushed ob at HOU 4 for 41 yards (1-L.Johnson).
5.7pts
What separated them
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.46 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.48 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cardinals won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Texans at 2 of 13 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 48 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Texans158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(4:27) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle to ARI 29 for 2 yards (91-M.Dogbe). PENALTY on HOU-88-J.Akins, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 31 - No Play.
Swing +6.7 for CardinalsExpected points +2.55 for CardinalsThe model had Texans 39 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:27HOU +7% win prob(4:27) (Shotgun) 31-D.Johnson left tackle to ARI 29 for 2 yards (91-M.Dogbe). PENALTY on HOU-88-J.Akins, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 31 - No Play.
1st · 10:19HOU +6% win prob(10:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 18 for -14 yards (55-D.Walker).
2nd · 3:46ARI +6% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-A.Green pushed ob at HOU 4 for 41 yards (1-L.Johnson).
2nd · 14:24ARI +6% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to ARI 37 for 8 yards (37-T.Thomas).
1st · 8:37HOU +5% win prob(8:37) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.King to HOU 36 for 20 yards (84-D.Harris, 29-J.Ward).
1st · 1:48HOU +5% win prob(1:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ingram left end to ARI 45 for -2 yards (9-I.Simmons).
1st · 3:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeAndre Hopkins's 1-yard touchdown catch with 9:05 left in the 2nd put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:06Jake Martin·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+22–0
2nd15:00Ka'imi Fairbairn·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+35–0
Cardinals ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.46Texans: −0.46 expected points added per play
+0.14Cardinals: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.48Texans: −0.48 expected points added per play
+0.36Cardinals: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.41Texans: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.09Cardinals: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 49 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 67 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Texans 1, Cardinals 5.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.46.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cardinals14.7%
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 17.6 points above their season mean of 32.4% and 1.1 times their own 16.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
47 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%56 snaps
72Geron ChristianT · Every snap100%56 snaps
67Charlie HeckT · Every snap100%56 snaps
10Davis MillsQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
68Justin BrittC · Every snap100%56 snaps
13Brandin CooksWR · Full-time95%53 snaps
12Nico CollinsWR · Heavy rotation63%35 snaps
64Justin McCrayC · Heavy rotation54%30 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation54%30 snaps
85Pharaoh BrownTE · Heavy rotation52%29 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Heavy rotation52%29 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Rotational48%27 snaps
74Max ScharpingG · Rotational46%26 snaps
89Danny AmendolaWR · Rotational43%24 snaps
2Mark IngramRB · Rotational38%21 snaps
15Chris MooreWR · Situational23%13 snaps
83Antony AuclairTE · Situational20%11 snaps
28Rex BurkheadRB · Situational7%4 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jimmy MorrisseyCJimmy MorelandCBJaleel JohnsonDTDeshaun WatsonQBScottie PhillipsRBBrevin JordanTEDavion DavisWR
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Mills sacked−23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:01) 10-D.Mills sacked at 50 for -7 yards (44-M.Golden). FUMBLES (44-M.Golden) [44-M.Golden], RECOVERED by ARI-44-M.Golden at HOU 49.
Q2 6:01 · Texans · 1st & 10 at ARI 43 · lost 8 · -5.94 EP · −23.4% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 88 yards from the ARI 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
37%
Yards
557
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.4775%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2748%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR20+0.7535%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0450%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1750%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 41
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 30
Punt4 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 36 to the Cardinals 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Texans2Cardinals0
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Cardinals 38
2nd quarter54 plays
Texans5Cardinals0
Field goal1 play
Texans5Cardinals6
Texans5Cardinals7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Texans 1
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Cardinals 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Texans5Cardinals13
Texans5Cardinals14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 4
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
Texans5Cardinals17
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Texans 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 38
Texans5Cardinals23
Texans5Cardinals24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Texans 47
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 41
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Cardinals 37
Punt4 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Cardinals 42 to the Cardinals 40
4th quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 37
Texans5Cardinals30
Texans5Cardinals31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Texans 18
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 27
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Cardinals 30
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 49 to the Texans 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
