2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Levi's Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -3.5 upsetO 41.5 ✓16 mph wind49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 30–18. Biggest swing: Q4 5:26, IND +18% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:26IND — SF SF ball · 3rd & 3IND 70%

(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes at SF 43. 27-X.Rhodes ran ob at SF 39 for 4 yards (23-J.Hasty).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:26IND +18% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes at SF 43. 27-X.Rhodes ran ob at SF 39 for 4 yards (23-J.Hasty).
Q3 · 4:46IND +18% win prob(4:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (97-A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (97-A.Muhammad) [97-A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at SF 33.
Q2 · 15:00IND +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at SF 8 for -4 yards (95-K.Street). FUMBLES (95-K.Street) [97-N.Bosa], RECOVERED by SF-51-A.Al-Shaair at SF 7. 51-A.Al-Shaair to SF 19 for 12 yards (14-Z.Pascal).
Q2 · 3:10IND +15% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to SF 28 for 10 yards (53-D.Leonard; 30-G.Odum). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-47-A.Chesley at SF 28.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	49ers
Offensive plays	61	53
Total yards	295 (edge)	281
Yards per play	4.8	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.28
Success rate	31%	34% (edge)
Dropback rate	49%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.45
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	1/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2 (edge)	4

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

16/27, 181 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-10.7 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Carson WentzQB

17/26, 150 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-4.2 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

18 att, 107 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Elijah MitchellRB

18 att, 107 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

4/4 for 105 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 12.7 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

7/11 for 100 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · -1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 22	10	78	4:48	Touchdown
2	IND	IND 25	2	2	0:20	Fumble
3	SF	IND 28	5	12	1:44	Turnover on downs
4	IND	IND 25	8	75	2:53	Touchdown
5	SF	SF 24	7	39	2:48	Turnover on downs
6	IND	IND 25	7	28	2:35	Fumble
7	SF	SF 19	4	6	1:01	Punt
8	IND	IND 38	6	18	2:26	Punt
9	SF	SF 10	4	7	2:03	Punt
10	IND	IND 18	4	3	1:43	Punt
11	SF	SF 20	4	2	0:57	Punt
12	IND	IND 30	4	4	2:10	Punt
13	SF	SF 20	3	8	1:30	Fumble
14	IND	SF 28	6	9	2:02	Touchdown
15	SF	SF 33	4	2	1:00	End of half
16	IND	IND 25	11	35	6:26	Punt
17	SF	SF 10	7	28	3:56	Fumble
18	IND	SF 33	2	5	0:53	Touchdown
19	SF	SF 25	5	7	2:21	Punt
20	IND	IND 45	4	6	2:06	Punt
21	SF	SF 30	4	70	1:11	Touchdown
22	IND	IND 27	11	64	6:07	Turnover on downs
23	SF	SF 31	4	7	1:40	Interception
24	IND	SF 39	7	39	2:31	Touchdown
25	SF	SF 38	5	19	0:56	Interception
26	IND	IND 16	4	7	1:44	Punt
27	SF	IND 47	1	-4	0:09	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	17/26	150	2	0	1	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	18	107	5.9	1	1.4
Carson Wentz	4	23	5.8	1	2.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	8	14	1.8	0	-3.2
Marlon Mack	3	4	1.3	0	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	4	4	105	1	15%	12.7
Mo Alie-Cox	3	3	25	1	12%	3.0
Zach Pascal	3	6	14	0	23%	-2.3
Keke Coutee	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.2
Jonathan Taylor	3	3	3	0	12%	-2.9
Ashton Dulin	2	4	0	0	15%	-3.8
Kylen Granson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Jack Doyle	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	3	-2	0	12%	-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	2	5	0.0	0	0
Khari Willis	3	3	0.0	1	1
Kenny Moore	4	2	0.0	0	0
Zaire Franklin	1	4	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	2	2	0.0	0	1
Kwity Paye	1	3	0.0	0	0
Xavier Rhodes	3	1	0.0	1	2
DeForest Buckner	3	1	1.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	2	1	0.0	0	0
Grover Stewart	1	1	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	16/27	181	1	2	2	-10.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Elijah Mitchell	18	107	5.9	1	1.9
Brandon Aiyuk	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3
Jamycal Hasty	3	1	0.3	0	-2.3
Jimmy Garoppolo	2	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	7	11	100	1	41%	-1.8
Charlie Woerner	2	2	30	0	7%	1.6
Mohamed Sanu	1	1	16	0	4%	2.6
Jamycal Hasty	3	6	15	0	22%	-5.3
Trent Sherfield	1	2	9	0	7%	0.2
Brandon Aiyuk	1	1	6	0	4%	-1.1
Ross Dwelley	1	2	5	0	7%	-0.9
Jauan Jennings	0	2	0	0	7%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josh Norman	7	3	0.0	1
Azeez Al-Shaair	4	4	0.0	0
Fred Warner	4	2	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	3	2	0.0	0
Kentavius Street	3	1	1.0	0
Nick Bosa	3	1	0.0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	2	1	0.0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	1	1	0.0	4
K'Waun Williams	2	0	0.0	0
Jamycal Hasty	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3.5
Closing total: 41.5
IND moneyline: +152
SF moneyline: -169

49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 48 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 64°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: IND 7 days · SF 14 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Kyle Shanahan

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.