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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 30 at San Francisco 49ers 18. Final.
49ers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 7
Indianapolis Colts 30, 49ers 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:26, 3rd and 3, on Xavier Rhodes — 18.1 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:26 · 3rd and 3
Xavier Rhodes
Colts
(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes at SF 43. 27-X.Rhodes ran ob at SF 39 for 4 yards (23-J.Hasty).
O 41.5 ✓
49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Indianapolis Colts 30–18. Biggest swing: Q4 5:26, Colts +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Carson Wentz49ersQ2 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at SF 8 for -4 yards (95-K.Street). FUMBLES (95-K.Street) [97-N.Bosa], RECOVERED by SF-51-A.Al-Shaair at SF 7. 51-A.Al-Shaair to SF 19 for 12 yards (14-Z.Pascal).
16.9pts
Jimmy GaroppoloColtsQ3 4:46(4:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (97-A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (97-A.Muhammad) [97-A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at SF 33.
17.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Colts won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against 49ers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 2 giveaways, against 49ers at 4 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — -0.08 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.45 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — -0.10 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.28 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Colts159 of 166 plays carry both curves
(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes at SF 43. 27-X.Rhodes ran ob at SF 39 for 4 yards (23-J.Hasty).
Swing −18.1 for 49ersExpected points −4.21 for 49ersThe model had Colts 4 points higher than the market did.play 144
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:26IND +18% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes at SF 43. 27-X.Rhodes ran ob at SF 39 for 4 yards (23-J.Hasty).
3rd · 4:46IND +18% win prob(4:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 33 for -8 yards (97-A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (97-A.Muhammad) [97-A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by IND-51-K.Paye at SF 33.
2nd · 15:00IND +17% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at SF 8 for -4 yards (95-K.Street). FUMBLES (95-K.Street) [97-N.Bosa], RECOVERED by SF-51-A.Al-Shaair at SF 7. 51-A.Al-Shaair to SF 19 for 12 yards (14-Z.Pascal).
2nd · 3:10IND +15% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to SF 28 for 10 yards (53-D.Leonard; 30-G.Odum). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-47-A.Chesley at SF 28.
3rd · 4:02SF +11% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Pittman. PENALTY on SF-3-J.Tartt, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at SF 43 - No Play.
1st · 2:18SF +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Carson Wentz's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:05 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:18Elijah Mitchell·14-yd TD run14-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+60–6
1st8:12Joey Slye·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+30–9
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.2849ers: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Colts: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.4549ers: −0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Colts: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.0549ers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 61 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against 49ers’s 53 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, 49ers 3.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
49ers10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0% against a season mean of 23.3% — and SF swings 26.0 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
69Matt PryorT · Every snap100%68 snaps
79Eric FisherT · Every snap100%68 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
2Carson WentzQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time91%62 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Full-time84%57 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Heavy rotation69%47 snaps
62Chris ReedG · Heavy rotation65%44 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Heavy rotation63%43 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Heavy rotation63%43 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Rotational35%24 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational28%19 snaps
63Danny PinterG · Situational9%6 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Situational7%5 snaps
15Keke CouteeWR · Situational6%4 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Rock Ya-SinCBKemoko TurayDEWill FriesGSam EhlingerQBJordan WilkinsRBBraden SmithTT.Y. HiltonWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 19-D.Samuel INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes at SF 43. 27-X.Rhodes ran ob at SF 39 for 4 yards (23-J.Hasty).
Q4 5:26 · 49ers · 3rd & 3 at SF 38 · gained nothing · -4.21 EP · −16.1% win probability
157 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 78 yards from the SF 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
34%
Yards
575
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0566%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.8874%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.4040%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24-0.2025%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.320%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Colts049ers6
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the Colts 14
Fumble lost2 plays
Colts049ers9
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Colts 16
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Colts649ers9
Colts749ers9
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the 49ers 11
Colts749ers12
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the Colts 37
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the 49ers 2
2nd quarter44 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost1 play
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 25
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 38 to the 49ers 42
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 18
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 21
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 22
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 35
Fumble lost3 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 21
Colts1349ers12
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 28 to the 49ers 1
The period ended7 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the 49ers 40
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost8 plays, from the 49ers 10 to the 49ers 41
Colts1949ers12
Colts2049ers12
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 5
Punt7 plays
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 41
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Colts2049ers18
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Colts 14
Colts2349ers18
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 27 to the 49ers 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the 49ers 38
Colts2949ers18
Colts3049ers18
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 39 to the 49ers 28
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Colts 43
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Colts 24
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3.5
Closing total
41.5
Colts moneyline
+152
49ers moneyline
-169
49ers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 48 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 64°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the south; 0.85 in of precipitation; moderate rain.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Colts 7 days · 49ers 14 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Kyle Shanahan
(2:18) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 15-K.Coutee. PENALTY on SF-24-K.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 40 yards, enforced at IND 25 - No Play.
4th · 2:56SF +9% win prob(2:56) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass deep right to 11-M.Pittman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught SF 4. 4-YAC
1st · 1:27SF +9% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to SF 2 for 33 yards (1-J.Ward).
