2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Nissan Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

Tennessee TitansWinner

KC -4 upsetU 57.5 ✓Chiefs closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:50, TEN +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:50KC — TEN TEN ball · 1st & 10TEN 56%

(3:50) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown. TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Tennessee challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Ta

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:50TEN +6% win prob(3:50) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown. TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Tennessee challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown to KC 40 for 46 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q2 · 2:53TEN +6% win prob(2:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:48TEN +6% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:56KC +5% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 48 for 13 yards (31-K.Byard). FUMBLES (31-K.Byard), RECOVERED by TEN-21-M.Farley at TEN 48. 21-M.Farley to TEN 49 for 1 yard (1-J.McKinnon).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Titans
Offensive plays	67	62
Total yards	335	370 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.10	0.19 (edge)
Success rate	49%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	91%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.60 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.19
Third downs	4/11	8/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	22	22
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

21/27, 270 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

14.0 expected points added · +14.9% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

20/35, 206 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-6.8 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

29 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

6 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

8/9 for 133 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 10.4 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Byron PringleWR

5/6 for 73 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	10	53	4:10	Touchdown
2	KC	KC 25	9	25	4:34	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 3	10	100	5:34	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 25	6	10	0:56	Punt
5	TEN	TEN 24	12	65	6:39	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:11	Interception
7	TEN	KC 46	9	41	5:08	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 25	5	33	1:00	Fumble
9	TEN	TEN 49	8	18	1:45	Turnover on downs
10	KC	KC 25	2	0	0:03	End of half
11	KC	KC 25	11	71	4:00	Turnover on downs
12	TEN	TEN 16	13	73	7:21	Interception
13	KC	KC 20	8	51	3:28	Turnover on downs
14	TEN	TEN 47	4	5	1:41	Punt
15	KC	KC 3	18	59	5:11	Fumble
16	TEN	TEN 33	6	15	3:55	Punt
17	KC	KC 3	17	86	4:16	Fumble
18	TEN	TEN 4	1	0	0:08	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 100 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	20/35	206	0	1	4	-6.8
Chad Henne	11/16	82	0	0	0	4.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	6	35	5.8	-0.5
Darrel Williams	5	20	4.0	-1.2
Tyreek Hill	1	18	18.0	1.4
Chad Henne	1	4	4.0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Byron Pringle	5	6	73	13%	8.0
Travis Kelce	7	12	65	25%	1.4
Tyreek Hill	6	9	49	19%	3.3
Darrel Williams	3	4	30	8%	0.7
Mecole Hardman	4	5	28	10%	-3.8
Jerick McKinnon	2	4	17	8%	-1.3
Marcus Kemp	1	1	8	2%	0.3
Demarcus Robinson	1	4	7	8%	-1.0
Derrick Gore	1	1	7	2%	0.8
Noah Gray	1	1	4	2%	-0.1
Josh Gordon	0	1	0	2%	-3.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Bolton	6	6	0.0	0
Juan Thornhill	7	2	0.0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	5	2	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	1	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	3	2	0.0	0
Rashad Fenton	2	2	0.0	1
Ben Niemann	3	1	1.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	1	0.0	0
Alex Okafor	1	2	0.0	0
Charvarius Ward	2	0	0.0	1

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	21/27	270	1	1	1	14.0
Derrick Henry	1/1	5	1	0	0	1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	29	86	3.0	0	-5.3
Darrynton Evans	2	7	3.5	0	-1.2
Ryan Tannehill	2	6	3.0	1	2.9
Marcus Johnson	1	5	5.0	0	0.3
Logan Woodside	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	8	9	133	1	33%	10.4
Julio Jones	2	4	38	0	15%	2.1
MyCole Pruitt	2	3	27	1	11%	-1.8
Josh Reynolds	3	3	23	0	11%	0.8
Derrick Henry	2	2	16	0	7%	1.3
Darrynton Evans	2	2	11	0	7%	1.3
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	10	0	4%	1.6
Anthony Firkser	1	1	9	0	4%	0.6
Geoff Swaim	1	1	8	0	4%	0.6
Marcus Johnson	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Dane Cruikshank	7	1	0.0	0	0
David Long Jr.	6	2	0.0	0	2
Elijah Molden	3	2	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	2	1	0.0	1	1
Janoris Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0	0
Denico Autry	3	0	2.0	0	0
Matthias Farley	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	3	0	0.0	0	0
Greg Mabin	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -4
Closing total: 57.5
KC moneyline: -209
TEN moneyline: +185

Chiefs closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 57.5; the game landed 30 — under by 27.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 74°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: KC 7 days · TEN 6 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Mike Vrabel