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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Nissan Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 7
It turned at Q1 3:50, 1st and 10, on A.J. Brown — 5.7 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:50 · 1st and 10
A.J. Brown
Titans
(3:50) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown. TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Tennessee challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown to KC 40 for 46 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Tennessee Titans 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:50, Titans +5.7% win probability on one snap.
5.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 4 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.60 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Chiefs at 4 of 11 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Titans won this one — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chiefs at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(3:50) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown. TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Tennessee challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Ta
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
MyCole Pruitt's 5-yard touchdown catch with 10:55 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
MyCole Pruitt5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Derrick HenryLead never changed again+70–7
Harrison Butker42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–276 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryTitans
Titans ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 67 snaps at a 91% dropback rate against Titans’s 62 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Titans 5.
Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's early-down pass rate, 88.7%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 18.1 points clear of the next team along.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.9 points.
KC's pass rate over expected, +16.1 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs16.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.9 vs their 9.2 pts, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 67 snaps
Titans-2.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their -8.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 94%
Tendencies room →Chiefs88.7%off script — passed early · +25.9 vs their 62.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+2.37× that swing) · 53 early downs
Titans46.0%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 46.1%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 103%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.3%.
Titans—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 27%
Tendencies room →Chiefs13.3%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans14.8%right on their number · +2.2 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 61 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
KC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 88.7%, 25.9 points above their season mean of 62.8% and 2.4 times their own 10.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · TEN
21/27, 270 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
14.0 expected points added · +14.9% completion over expected
Passing · KC
20/35, 206 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-6.8 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
A.J. Brown banked 7.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.3 | +7.1 | 62% | 77% | 33% | 59% | 8/9, 133 yd, 1 TD |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 19.4 | −1.4 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 21/27, 270 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 6 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.4 | −6.4 | 74% | 55% | 7% | 0% | 1/1, 5 yd, 1 TD · 29 car, 86 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 13.5 | −7.5 | 74% | 69% | 25% | 29% | 7/12, 65 yd |
| Tyreek HillWR · Featured Receiver | 12.7 | −2.0 | 72% | 67% | 19% | 17% | 1 car, 18 yd · 6/9, 49 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +0.3 | 47% | 41% | 13% | 32% | 5/6, 73 yd |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.7 | +3.1 | 54% | 42% | 11% | 12% | 2/3, 27 yd, 1 TD |
| Darrel WilliamsRB | 8.0 | −0.4 | 64% | 57% | 8% | 0% | 5 car, 20 yd · 3/4, 30 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 7.7 | −8.1 | 75% | — | 0% | — | 20/35, 206 yd, 1 INT · 6 car, 35 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −2.6 | 43% | 55% | 15% | 20% | 2/4, 38 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +0.7 | 44% | 55% | 11% | 2% | 3/3, 23 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −2.5 | 68% | 62% | 10% | 3% | 4/5, 28 yd |
| Darrynton EvansRB | 3.8 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 3.7 | −1.8 | 31% | 26% | 8% | 0% | 2/4, 17 yd |
| Chad HenneQB | 3.7 | −2.9 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 11/16, 82 yd · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 2.0 | +0.4 | 15% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 35% | 32% | 4% | 4% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Marcus KempWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.1 | 56% | 39% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Derrick GoreRB | 1.7 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −3.7 | 79% | 79% | 8% | 6% | 1/4, 7 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 31% | 23% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −5.7 | 43% | 35% | 4% | 8% | 1 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh GordonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | 11% | 8% | 2% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mason KinseyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Logan WoodsideQB | -0.1 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:50) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown. TEN-76-R.Saffold was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Tennessee challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown to KC 40 for 46 yards (38-L.Sneed).
Q1 3:50 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 14 · gained 46 · +3.06 EP · +6.3% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 97 yards from the TEN 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Titans6Chiefs0Titans7Chiefs0Titans13Chiefs0Titans14Chiefs0Titans17Chiefs0Titans23Chiefs0Titans24Chiefs0Titans27Chiefs3Titans27Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/35 | 206 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −6.8 |
| Chad Henne | 11/16 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Tyreek Hill |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Pringle | 5 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 13% | +8.0 |
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 12 | 65 | 0 | 25% | +1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Thornhill | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrann Mathieu |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 21/27 | 270 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +14.0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1.0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_07_KC_TEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 57.5; the game landed 30 — under by 27.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 18 |
| 18.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.4 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 | 19% | +3.3 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 8% | +0.7 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 10% | −3.8 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 8% | −1.3 |
| Marcus Kemp | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | +0.3 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 8% | −1.0 |
| Derrick Gore | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | +0.8 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2% | −0.1 |
| Josh Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −3.9 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashad Fenton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben Niemann | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Nnadi | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Okafor | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 29 | 86 | 3.0 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Logan Woodside | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 9 | 133 | 1 | 33% | +10.4 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 15% | +2.1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 11% | −1.8 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 11% | +0.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +1.6 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Marcus Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Cruikshank | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Elijah Molden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashaan Evans | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Janoris Jenkins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Denico Autry | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthias Farley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Mabin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffery Simmons | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
