2021 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 25, 2021 · Lumen Field

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

NO -6 no coverU 42 ✓16 mph windSaints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New Orleans Saints 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 10:22, SEA +16% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:22NO — SEA SEA ball · 2nd & 10NO 74%

(10:22) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:22SEA +16% win prob(10:22) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:16NO +15% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at SEA 15 for -7 yards (sack split by 94-R.Green and 8-C.Dunlap).
Q4 · 3:08SEA +14% win prob(3:08) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on SEA-99-A.Woods, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 24 - No Play.
Q4 · 9:19SEA +12% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 18-F.Swain to NO 23 for 28 yards (43-M.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Seahawks
Offensive plays	66	54
Total yards	307 (edge)	220
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.15	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	38% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	62%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	2/13	3/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

19/35, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.3 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

12/22, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.9 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

20 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-8.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Jameis WinstonQB

8 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

10/11 for 128 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

DK MetcalfWR

2/5 for 96 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 26	5	9	2:19	Punt
2	NO	NO 20	5	9	1:42	Punt
3	SEA	SEA 16	3	84	0:51	Touchdown
4	NO	NO 25	9	33	4:13	Punt
5	SEA	SEA 1	7	15	3:03	Punt
6	NO	NO 20	4	-2	1:30	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 41	5	15	1:43	Punt
8	NO	NO 12	19	92	10:16	Turnover on downs
9	SEA	SEA 23	9	18	1:57	Punt
10	NO	NO 15	8	85	1:46	Touchdown
11	SEA	SEA 18	3	1	0:40	End of half
12	NO	NO 32	5	8	1:31	Punt
13	SEA	SEA 12	9	32	4:46	Turnover on downs
14	NO	NO 34	6	9	2:10	Punt
15	SEA	SEA 16	7	19	4:03	Punt
16	NO	NO 15	2	21	0:56	Fumble
17	SEA	NO 32	4	0	1:20	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 25	7	20	2:53	Punt
19	SEA	SEA 20	11	45	5:37	Turnover on downs
20	NO	NO 43	13	32	4:48	Turnover on downs
21	SEA	SEA 25	5	-18	0:52	Turnover on downs
22	NO	SEA 7	2	0	1:04	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 92 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	19/35	222	1	0	2	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	20	51	2.5	-8.4
Jameis Winston	8	40	5.0	1.5
Ty Montgomery	1	4	4.0	-0.2
Alex Armah	1	2	2.0	-0.1
Devine Ozigbo	1	-3	-3.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	10	11	128	1	34%	7.3
Adam Trautman	3	3	36	0	9%	-2.2
Marquez Callaway	3	7	32	0	22%	-3.3
Tre'Quan Smith	1	3	11	0	9%	-1.2
Juwan Johnson	1	1	8	0	3%	0.9
Devine Ozigbo	1	1	7	0	3%	0.8
Ty Montgomery	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Kenny Stills	0	3	0	0	9%	-2.2
Kevin White	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	6	3	2.0	1
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	2	3	0.0	1
Malcolm Jenkins	2	3	1.0	0
Paulson Adebo	3	1	0.0	1
Cameron Jordan	3	1	1.0	0
Pete Werner	3	1	0.0	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	2	1	1.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	2	0	0.0	1
Marcus Williams	1	1	0.0	0
J.T. Gray	2	0	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	12/22	167	1	0	5	-3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alex Collins	16	35	2.2	-5.9
Travis Homer	1	14	14.0	0.6
Geno Smith	3	12	4.0	1.0
Gerald Everett	1	12	12.0	0.7
Rashaad Penny	6	9	1.5	-0.1
Freddie Swain	1	8	8.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	2	5	96	1	26%	3.6
Freddie Swain	4	6	39	0	32%	0.9
Tyler Lockett	2	3	12	0	16%	2.0
Gerald Everett	3	3	11	0	16%	-1.8
Alex Collins	1	1	9	0	5%	0.9
Penny Hart	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	5	2	0.0	0
Poona Ford	3	3	0.0	0
Bryan Mone	1	4	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	4	0	0.0	0
Rasheem Green	2	2	1.0	0
Jordyn Brooks	2	2	0.0	1
Alton Robinson	2	2	0.0	0
Carlos Dunlap	1	3	0.5	0
Al Woods	1	3	0.0	1
Tre Brown	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -6
Closing total: 42
NO moneyline: -237
SEA moneyline: +208

Saints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 23 — under by 19.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lumen Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: NO 15 days · SEA 8 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Pete Carroll

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.