For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 25, 2021 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 7
It turned at Q1 10:22, 2nd and 10, on DK Metcalf — 15.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 10:22, Seahawks +15.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:22 · 2nd and 10
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(10:22) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Saints won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 3 of 12 on third down, against Saints at 2 of 13 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 20.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(10:22) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brian Johnson's 33-yard field goal with 2:00 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Brian Johnson33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+313–105 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categorySeahawks
Saints ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 66 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 54 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Seahawks 1.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NO's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 6.8 points clear of the next team along.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
SEA's pass rate over expected, −11.0 pts, is past their previous low of −6.9 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Saints1.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.5 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 66 snaps
Seahawks-11.0 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.9 vs their -2.0 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 86%
Tendencies room →Saints60.8%inside their normal wobble · +10.4 vs their 50.4%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 51 early downs
Seahawks46.3%inside their normal wobble · −8.8 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Saints40.0%right on their number · +7.2 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks0.0%right on their number · −4.8 vs their 4.8%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints28.6%leaned — got home · +11.1 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Seahawks4.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 11.1 points above their season mean of 17.4% and 1.7 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
19/35, 222 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-0.3 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected
Passing · SEA
12/22, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-3.9 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
DK Metcalf banked 9.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin KamaraRB · Bell Cow Back | 33.9 | +4.3 | 82% | 68% | 34% | 2% | 20 car, 51 yd · 10/11, 128 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.6 | +9.2 | 82% | 82% | 26% | 36% | 2/5, 96 yd, 1 TD |
| Jameis WinstonQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/35, 222 yd, 1 TD · 8 car, 40 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 11.9 | +4.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/22, 167 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 12 yd |
| Freddie SwainWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.7 | −0.3 | 77% | 82% | 32% | 26% | 1 car, 8 yd · 4/6, 39 yd |
| Marquez CallawayWR · Featured Receiver | 6.2 | −8.2 | 92% | 88% | 22% | 19% | 3/7, 32 yd |
| Alex CollinsRB · Committee Back | 5.4 | −3.6 | 39% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 16 car, 35 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Gerald EverettTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +0.5 | 59% | 61% | 16% | 1% | 1 car, 12 yd · 3/3, 11 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | +0.1 | 86% | 76% | 9% | 3% | 3/3, 36 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −1.9 | 86% | 89% | 16% | 21% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −2.9 | 55% | 56% | 9% | 14% | 1/3, 11 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.3 | 27% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Devine OzigboRB | 1.4 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Travis HomerRB | 1.4 | +0.7 | 21% | 36% | 0% | — | 1 car, 14 yd |
| Rashaad PennyRB | 0.9 | −1.8 | 36% | 39% | 0% | — | 6 car, 9 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.4 | −1.4 | 16% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Alex ArmahRB | 0.2 | −0.2 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 2 yd |
| Kenny StillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.7 | 43% | 51% | 9% | 36% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Kevin WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.1 | 11% | 15% | 6% | 22% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 18% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Penny HartWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 18% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:45) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 82-A.Trautman to NO 36 for 8 yards (28-U.Amadi). FUMBLES (28-U.Amadi), RECOVERED by SEA-56-J.Brooks at NO 37. 56-J.Brooks to NO 32 for 5 yards (84-L.Humphrey).
Q3 1:45 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 28 · gained 8 · -5.21 EP · −17.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 86 yards from the NO 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints0
Seahawks6Saints0Seahawks7Saints3Seahawks7Saints9Seahawks7Saints10Seahawks7Saints10Seahawks10Saints13Seahawks10Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 19/35 | 222 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −0.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 0 | −8.4 |
| Jameis Winston | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Ty Montgomery |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 11 | 128 | 1 | 34% | +7.3 |
| Adam Trautman | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 6 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chauncey Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malcolm Jenkins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 12/22 | 167 | 1 | 0 | 5 | −3.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_07_NO_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 23 — under by 19.0.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 18.3 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| −2.2 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 22% | −3.3 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −1.2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −2.2 |
| Kevin White | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshon Lattimore | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.T. Gray | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 | −5.9 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 5 | 96 | 1 | 26% | +3.6 |
| Freddie Swain | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 32% | +0.9 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 16% | +2.0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 16% | −1.8 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Penny Hart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Mone | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasheem Green | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alton Robinson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Dunlap | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Al Woods | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Brown | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
