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New Orleans Saints 13 at Seattle Seahawks 10. Final.
Saints -6 no coverU 42 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 7
New Orleans Saints 13, Seahawks 10 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q1 10:22, 2nd and 10, on DK Metcalf — 15.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:22 · 2nd and 10
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(10:22) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.3 mph wind
Saints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New Orleans Saints 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 10:22, Seahawks +15.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ4 3:08(3:08) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on SEA-99-A.Woods, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 24 - No Play.
13.7pts
Jameis WinstonSeahawksQ4 2:16(2:16) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at SEA 15 for -7 yards (sack split by 94-R.Green and 8-C.Dunlap).
14.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Saints won this one — 1 touchdown on 4 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 3 of 12 on third down, against Saints at 2 of 13 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Saints158 of 173 plays carry both curves
(10:22) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.6 for SeahawksExpected points +6.87 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 26 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:22SEA +16% win prob(10:22) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:16NO +15% win prob(2:16) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at SEA 15 for -7 yards (sack split by 94-R.Green and 8-C.Dunlap).
4th · 3:08SEA +14% win prob(3:08) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on SEA-99-A.Woods, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 24 - No Play.
4th · 9:19SEA +12% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 18-F.Swain to NO 23 for 28 yards (43-M.Williams).
4th · 6:49NO +12% win prob(6:49) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
3rd · 0:18SEA +11% win prob(:18) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
3rd · 1:45
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brian Johnson's 33-yard field goal with 2:00 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd0:18Jason Myers·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+310–10
4th2:00Brian Johnson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+313–10
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categorySeahawks
Saints6–3Seahawks
307Total yards220
4.7Yards per play4.1
38%Success rate35%
15%Third-down rate25%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays5
17First downs10
2Sacks taken5
1Turnovers0
The read
Saints ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Saints: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.12Seahawks: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Saints: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.12Seahawks: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Saints: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.13Seahawks: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 66 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 54 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Seahawks 1.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NO's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 6.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 19.6% in week 3.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
SEA's pass rate over expected, −11.0 pts, is past their previous low of −6.9 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 14 pts
leaned — got home · +11.1 vs their 17.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Seahawks4.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.4 vs their 12.3%, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.6%, 11.1 points above their season mean of 17.4% and 1.7 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%74 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%74 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%74 snaps
2Jameis WinstonQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
1Marquez CallawayWR · Full-time92%68 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Full-time86%64 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time82%61 snaps
76Calvin ThrockmortonT · Heavy rotation77%57 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:45) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 82-A.Trautman to NO 36 for 8 yards (28-U.Amadi). FUMBLES (28-U.Amadi), RECOVERED by SEA-56-J.Brooks at NO 37. 56-J.Brooks to NO 32 for 5 yards (84-L.Humphrey).
Q3 1:45 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 28 · gained 8 · -5.21 EP · −17.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 86 yards from the NO 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
36%
Yards
523
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1257%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.2162%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0525%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.9333%
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1750%
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Seahawks 35
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 34
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Saints0Seahawks6
Saints0Seahawks7
Touchdown3 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Seahawks 42
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 1 to the Seahawks 31
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 23
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Saints 47
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt4 plays
Saints3Seahawks7
Field goal23 plays, from the Saints 12 to the Seahawks 1
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Saints9Seahawks7
Saints10Seahawks7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Seahawks 13
The period ended6 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Saints 40
No good10 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Saints 26
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 46
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 35
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Saints 28
Saints10Seahawks10
Field goal5 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Saints 31
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 38
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
No good11 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Saints 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Saints13Seahawks10
Field goal17 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Seahawks 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Turnover on downs7 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -6
Closing total
42
Saints moneyline
-237
Seahawks moneyline
+208
Saints closed -6, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 23 — under by 19.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the south; 0.14 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Saints 15 days · Seahawks 8 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Pete Carroll
NoteWind at 18.3 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
NO +11% win prob
(1:45) 2-J.Winston pass short left to 82-A.Trautman to NO 36 for 8 yards (28-U.Amadi). FUMBLES (28-U.Amadi), RECOVERED by SEA-56-J.Brooks at NO 37. 56-J.Brooks to NO 32 for 5 yards (84-L.Humphrey).
4th · 6:01SEA +11% win prob(6:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston sacked at NO 39 for -5 yards (sack split by 54-B.Wagner and 27-M.Blair). PENALTY on SEA-27-M.Blair, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NO 44 - No Play.
