2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Gillette Stadium

New York Jets

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -7 ✓O 43 ✓Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 41.

New England Patriots 54–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:28, NE +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 13:28NYJ — NE NE ball · 2nd & 15NE 71%

(13:28) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 28 yards (26-B.Echols).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 13:28NE +8% win prob(13:28) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 28 yards (26-B.Echols).
Q1 · 12:49NE +7% win prob(12:49) (Shotgun) 84-K.Bourne pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. backward pass from NE 10-Jones to NE 84-Bourne
Q2 · 10:45NE +4% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:29NYJ +4% win prob(14:29) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 1 yard (30-M.Carter II, 26-B.Echols). PENALTY on NE-69-S.Mason, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 48 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Patriots
Offensive plays	62	71
Total yards	299	554 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	7.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	0.48 (edge)
Success rate	47%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.63 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.23 (edge)
Third downs	7/13	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	17 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.48 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

24/36, 307 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.4 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Mike WhiteQB

20/32, 202 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-0.2 expected points added · -6.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

14 att, 106 yds, 2 TD

7.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

11 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Brandon BoldenRB

6/7 for 79 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

4/4 for 68 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 35	6	70	2:17	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-4	1:57	Punt
3	NE	NE 47	8	53	3:25	Touchdown
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	13	45	5:33	Turnover on downs
5	NE	NE 38	8	36	2:38	Turnover on downs
6	NYJ	NYJ 31	8	28	3:31	Touchdown
7	NE	NE 27	14	73	5:10	Touchdown
8	NYJ	NYJ 28	8	44	3:34	Turnover on downs
9	NE	NE 28	12	68	1:28	Touchdown
10	NYJ	NYJ 24	3	-8	0:27	End of half
11	NYJ	NYJ 23	9	68	3:22	Touchdown
12	NE	NE 25	10	43	4:35	Turnover on downs
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	40	2:47	Interception
14	NE	NE 15	5	32	2:13	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 33	3	8	0:55	Interception
16	NE	NYJ 43	6	43	2:39	Touchdown
17	NYJ	NYJ 20	9	33	2:15	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 47	5	53	2:04	Touchdown
19	NYJ	NYJ 23	7	17	2:28	Punt
20	NE	NE 22	10	83	3:43	Touchdown
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	4	28	0:59	Fumble
22	NE	NE 47	3	0	2:00	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 83 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mike White	20/32	202	1	2	1	-0.2
Zach Wilson	6/10	51	0	0	1	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	11	37	3.4	0	-2.7
Elijah Moore	1	19	19.0	1	2.4
Ty Johnson	5	6	1.2	0	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Carter	8	9	67	0	22%	0.7
Ty Johnson	6	7	65	0	17%	6.0
Corey Davis	4	6	47	1	15%	4.8
Jamison Crowder	4	6	34	0	15%	0.8
Ryan Griffin	1	2	15	0	5%	-2.2
Elijah Moore	1	6	13	0	15%	-5.9
Keelan Cole	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.2
Denzel Mims	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.6
Trevon Wesco	0	1	0	0	2%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Ashtyn Davis	9	1	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	5	5	0.0	1
Del'Shawn Phillips	4	4	1.0	0
Brandin Echols	5	1	0.0	1
Michael Carter	3	2	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	3	0	0.0	0
Bryce Hall	3	0	0.0	1
Blake Cashman	3	0	0.0	0
Noah Dawkins	1	1	0.0	0
Elijah Moore	1	0	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	24/36	307	2	1	15.4
Brian Hoyer	3/4	79	0	0	8.1
Kendrick Bourne	1/1	25	1	0	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	14	106	7.6	2	7.3
J.J. Taylor	9	21	2.3	2	-0.2
Mac Jones	3	19	6.3	0	2.2
Jonnu Smith	1	5	5.0	0	-0.2
Brandon Bolden	2	0	0.0	0	-1.2
Brian Hoyer	3	-3	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Bolden	6	7	79	1	18%	7.3
Kendrick Bourne	4	4	68	0	10%	5.7
Jonnu Smith	2	5	52	0	13%	3.0
Nelson Agholor	2	5	51	1	13%	2.3
Jakobi Meyers	5	7	44	0	18%	3.1
Jakob Johnson	2	2	32	0	5%	2.5
N'Keal Harry	1	2	28	0	5%	3.0
Hunter Henry	2	4	23	1	10%	0.1
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	22	0	3%	2.4
Damien Harris	2	2	7	0	5%	-0.5
J.J. Taylor	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Dugger	7	2	0.0	1	1
Myles Bryant	2	4	1.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	5	1	0.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	3	1	0.0	1	1
Cody Davis	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jalen Mills	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	0	0.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jamie Collins	2	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Barmore	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7
Closing total: 43
NYJ moneyline: +261
NE moneyline: -303

Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 41.

Total closed 43; the game landed 67 — over by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NYJ 14 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Robert Saleh vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.