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New York Jets 13 at New England Patriots 54. Final.
Patriots -7 ✓O 43 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 7
New England Patriots 54, Jets 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:28, 2nd and 15, on Jonnu Smith — 7.6 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:28 · 2nd and 15
Jonnu Smith
Patriots
(13:28) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 28 yards (26-B.Echols).
Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 41.
New England Patriots 54–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:28, Patriots +7.6% win probability on one snap.
7.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nelson AgholorPatriotsQ1 12:49(12:49) (Shotgun) 84-K.Bourne pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. backward pass from NE 10-Jones to NE 84-Bourne
7.2pts
Corey DavisJetsQ2 10:45(10:45) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 17 chunk plays, against Jets at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.48 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Jets173 of 180 plays carry both curves
(13:28) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 28 yards (26-B.Echols).
Swing +7.6 for PatriotsExpected points +2.54 for PatriotsThe model had Jets 16 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:28NE +8% win prob(13:28) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 28 yards (26-B.Echols).
1st · 12:49NE +7% win prob(12:49) (Shotgun) 84-K.Bourne pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. backward pass from NE 10-Jones to NE 84-Bourne
2nd · 10:45NE +4% win prob(10:45) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 84-C.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:29NYJ +4% win prob(14:29) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 1 yard (30-M.Carter II, 26-B.Echols). PENALTY on NE-69-S.Mason, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 48 - No Play.
1st · 10:46NE +3% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 37-D.Harris up the middle to NYJ 44 for 9 yards (20-M.Maye).
2nd · 10:23NE +3% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers to NE 46 for 19 yards (21-A.Davis).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nelson Agholor's 25-yard touchdown catch with 12:49 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Jets: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.48Patriots: +0.48 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Jets: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.63Patriots: +0.63 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Jets: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.23Patriots: +0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 62 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Patriots’s 71 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Patriots 7.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.48 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonFourth Down
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 7.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -49 pts to 37 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Patriots13.6%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 32.9 points above their season mean of 33.8% and 1.2 times their own 26.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 6 inactive
75Alijah Vera-TuckerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%65 snaps
62Greg Van RotenG · Every snap100%65 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%65 snaps
76George FantT · Full-time97%63 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Full-time80%52 snaps
86Ryan GriffinTE · Heavy rotation77%50 snaps
5Mike WhiteQB · Heavy rotation72%47 snaps
32Michael CarterRB · Heavy rotation72%47 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Heavy rotation72%47 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Heavy rotation57%37 snaps
88Keelan ColeWR · Rotational40%26 snaps
25Ty JohnsonRB · Rotational32%21 snaps
11Denzel MimsWR · Rotational31%20 snaps
2Zach WilsonQB · Rotational28%18 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Rotational25%16 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Situational9%6 snaps
70Chuma EdogaT · Situational5%3 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Situational2%1 snap
22La'Mical PerineRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Jonathan MarshallDTAdrian ColbertFSC.J. MosleyILBTevin ColemanRBTyler KroftTEJeff SmithWR
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:28) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 81-J.Smith pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 28 yards (26-B.Echols).
Q1 13:28 · Patriots · 2nd & 15 at NE 47 · gained 28 · +2.54 EP · +9.6% win probability
171 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 78 yards from the NE 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
47%
Yards
850
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0380%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.4670%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.3457%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-1.0722%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Jets0Patriots6
Jets0Patriots7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Jets 25
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 29
Jets0Patriots13
Jets0Patriots14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Jets 1
No good13 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Jets 30
2nd quarter56 plays
Jets0Patriots17
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 21
Jets6Patriots17
Jets7Patriots17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Patriots 1
Jets7Patriots23
Jets7Patriots24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 27 to the Jets 15
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Patriots 28
Jets7Patriots30
Jets7Patriots31
Touchdown15 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Jets 1
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Jets13Patriots31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Patriots 19
Jets13Patriots34
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Jets 24
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 35
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 47
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Jets 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 34
4th quarter44 plays
Jets13Patriots40
Jets13Patriots41
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 3
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Patriots 47
Jets13Patriots47
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Jets 1
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 40
Jets13Patriots53
Jets13Patriots54
Touchdown11 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Jets 1
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 37
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
