For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Philadelphia Eagles 22 at Las Vegas Raiders 33. Final.
Raiders -1 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 7
Las Vegas Raiders 33, Eagles 22 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 7:11, 3rd and 15, on Zay Jones — 13.7 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:11 · 3rd and 15
Zay Jones
Raiders
(7:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones to PHI 14 for 43 yards.
Dome
Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 11.
Las Vegas Raiders 33–22. Biggest swing: Q1 7:11, Raiders +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Avonte MaddoxEaglesQ1 4:48(4:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 30-J.Richard INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Maddox at PHI 5. 29-A.Maddox to PHI 4 for -1 yards (70-A.Leatherwood; 89-B.Edwards).
9.0pts
Kenneth GainwellRaidersQ2 1:38(1:38) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to PHI 29 for 4 yards (77-Q.Jefferson). FUMBLES (77-Q.Jefferson), RECOVERED by LV-24-J.Abram at PHI 29. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
10.3pts
What separated them
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Eagles at +0.03 expected points per snap.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.51 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at +0.19 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 9 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Eagles164 of 175 plays carry both curves
(7:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones to PHI 14 for 43 yards.
Swing +13.7 for RaidersExpected points +4.52 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 4 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:11LV +14% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones to PHI 14 for 43 yards.
2nd · 1:38PHI +10% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to PHI 29 for 4 yards (77-Q.Jefferson). FUMBLES (77-Q.Jefferson), RECOVERED by LV-24-J.Abram at PHI 29. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 4:48PHI +9% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 30-J.Richard INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Maddox at PHI 5. 29-A.Maddox to PHI 4 for -1 yards (70-A.Leatherwood; 89-B.Edwards).
2nd · 11:20LV +9% win prob(11:20) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:49PHI +8% win prob(6:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at LV 49 for -7 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue).
1st · 13:43LV +7% win prob(13:43) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 88-D.Goedert to LV 30 for 24 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 1:45 left in the 2nd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Raiders ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Eagles: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.26Raiders: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Eagles: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.51Raiders: +0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Eagles: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.08Raiders: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 68 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Raiders’s 62 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Raiders 6.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders17.1%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 16.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was PHI's sack or hit rate, 5.7% against a season mean of 12.5% — and PHI swings 7.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
63Jack DriscollT · Every snap100%69 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%69 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%69 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time93%64 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time87%60 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Full-time84%58 snaps
18Jalen ReagorWR · Full-time81%56 snaps
16Quez WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation72%50 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
35Boston ScottRB · Rotational33%23 snaps
84Greg WardWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Situational19%13 snaps
26Miles SandersRB · Situational17%12 snaps
77Andre DillardT · Situational16%11 snaps
19J.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR · Situational12%8 snaps
81Richard RodgersTE · Situational10%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Mac McCainCBTay GowanCBMarlon TuipulotuDTAnthony HarrisFSJack AndersonGIosua OpetaGGardner MinshewQB
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Joe FlaccoQB
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
87Foster MoreauTE · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%66 snaps
70Alex LeatherwoodT · Every snap100%66 snaps
75Brandon ParkerT · Every snap100%66 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Andre JamesC · Every snap100%66 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Full-time98%65 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Full-time89%59 snaps
11Henry RuggsWR · Heavy rotation71%47 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
23Kenyan DrakeRB · Rotational39%26 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Rotational36%24 snaps
45Alec IngoldFB · Rotational26%17 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Situational24%16 snaps
7Zay JonesWR · Situational18%12 snaps
84Matt BushmanTE · Situational17%11 snaps
17Willie SneadWR · Situational15%10 snaps
66Nick MartinC · Situational8%5 snaps
60Jordan SimmonsG · Situational2%1 snap
8Marcus MariotaQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Amik RobertsonCBMalcolm KoonceDENathan PetermanQBPeyton BarberRBJackson BartonTDarren WallerTE
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones to PHI 14 for 43 yards.
Q1 7:11 · Raiders · 3rd & 15 at LV 43 · gained 43 · +4.52 EP · +10.6% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 96 yards from the LV 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
49%
Yards
802
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.1759%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3275%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.5440%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.8522%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4133%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Eagles6Raiders0
Eagles7Raiders0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Raiders 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Eagles 9
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Eagles 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 30
2nd quarter47 plays
Eagles7Raiders6
Eagles7Raiders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Eagles 18
Punt13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Raiders 37
Eagles7Raiders13
Eagles7Raiders14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 4 to the Eagles 8
Fumble lost2 plays
Eagles7Raiders17
Field goal9 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Eagles7Raiders23
Eagles7Raiders24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 4
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Eagles 30
Eagles7Raiders30
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Eagles 1
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Raiders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 6 to the Raiders 11
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Eagles13Raiders30
Eagles14Raiders30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Raiders 1
Eagles14Raiders33
Field goal10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Eagles 21
Eagles20Raiders33
Eagles22Raiders33
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Raiders 17
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 39
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Eagles 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
