2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Lambeau Field

Washington Commanders

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -8.5 ✓U 48 ✓Packers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Green Bay Packers 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 3:03, WAS +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:03WAS — GB WAS ball · 4th & 3GB 62%

(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (21-E.Stokes).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:03WAS +9% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (21-E.Stokes).
Q2 · 0:19GB +9% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-Jon.Allen].
Q1 · 2:33GB +9% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:13WAS +8% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 24 for -5 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-94-D.Lowry at WAS 27.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Packers
Offensive plays	68	53
Total yards	431 (edge)	304
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	-0.10	0.09 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	68%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.33 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.00 (edge)	-0.64
Third downs	4/11	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Commanders outgained Packers 431–304 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

27/35, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

25/37, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.5 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Taylor HeinickeQB

10 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

14 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/12 for 122 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

6/7 for 76 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	15	75	7:49	Touchdown
2	WAS	WAS 17	10	83	4:45	Touchdown
3	GB	GB 25	5	-11	1:09	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 37	9	20	4:55	Turnover on downs
5	GB	GB 32	10	52	6:05	Turnover on downs
6	WAS	WAS 28	5	45	2:19	Turnover on downs
7	GB	GB 28	10	72	2:43	Touchdown
8	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
9	WAS	WAS 23	3	4	0:53	Fumble
10	GB	WAS 27	4	27	1:37	Touchdown
11	WAS	WAS 23	12	86	6:38	Turnover on downs
12	GB	GB 1	4	5	1:48	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 41	7	52	2:59	Fumble
14	GB	GB 4	9	67	4:43	Turnover on downs
15	WAS	WAS 23	14	65	4:53	Interception
16	GB	GB 20	2	18	0:50	Fumble
17	WAS	GB 38	6	11	3:14	Turnover on downs
18	GB	WAS 39	5	-1	0:22	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 3	10	65	2:03	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	25/37	268	1	1	4	-10.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Taylor Heinicke	10	95	9.5	-0.7
Antonio Gibson	14	51	3.6	0.4
DeAndre Carter	1	27	27.0	2.3
J.D. McKissic	4	22	5.5	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	7	12	122	1	33%	3.2
Ricky Seals-Jones	6	7	51	0	19%	-1.4
Adam Humphries	3	4	36	0	11%	-1.2
J.D. McKissic	4	6	34	0	17%	-1.0
Dax Milne	2	4	16	0	11%	-0.3
Antonio Gibson	2	2	5	0	6%	-0.8
DeAndre Carter	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Landon Collins	6	1	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	5	1	0.0	0
Cole Holcomb	3	2	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	3	1	0.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	1	0.0	0
Danny Johnson	4	0	0.0	1
Bobby McCain	3	0	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	0	0.0	0
Montez Sweat	1	1	1.0	0
Chase Young	0	2	0.0	1

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	27/35	274	3	0	3	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	6	19	3.2	-0.9
Aaron Rodgers	2	17	8.5	2.4
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	13	13.0	0.8
A.J. Dillon	3	6	2.0	-5.6
Kylin Hill	3	2	0.7	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	6	7	76	1	21%	7.0
Robert Tonyan	4	5	63	1	15%	5.4
Allen Lazard	5	6	60	1	18%	5.7
Marcedes Lewis	3	3	31	0	9%	1.7
Randall Cobb	3	4	22	0	12%	0.5
Aaron Jones	5	5	20	0	15%	0.2
A.J. Dillon	1	2	2	0	6%	-1.9
Equanimeous St. Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Kylin Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
De'Vondre Campbell	9	3	0.0	0	0
Rashan Gary	3	4	2.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	6	0	0.0	0	2
Darnell Savage	4	1	0.0	0	1
Dean Lowry	2	3	0.5	0	0
Chandon Sullivan	4	0	0.0	1	1
Kingsley Keke	2	2	1.5	0	0
Rasul Douglas	4	0	0.0	0	1
Henry Black	3	0	0.0	0	0
Eric Stokes	3	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -8.5
Closing total: 48
WAS moneyline: +331
GB moneyline: -397

Packers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 48; the game landed 34 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: WAS 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Matt LaFleur