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Game Center
2021 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 24, 2021 · Lambeau Field
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 7
It turned at Q2 3:03, 4th and 3, on Taylor Heinicke — 9.2 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 3:03, Packers +9.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:03 · 4th and 3
Taylor Heinicke
Packers
(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (21-E.Stokes).
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — -0.00 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.64 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (21-E.Stokes).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Allen Lazard's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Allen Lazard10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron RodgersLead never changed again+77–146 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryPackers
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 68 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Packers’s 53 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 5, Packers 5.
Commanders outgained Packers 431-304 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's pass rate over expected, +14.9 pts, is past their previous high of +7.4 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points. · +2.3σ from their own normal
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 6 against 67.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders0.2 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 68 snaps
Packers14.9 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +11.2 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+2.27× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 84%
Tendencies room →Commanders67.9%leaned — passed early · +13.6 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 53 early downs
Packers67.5%leaned — passed early · +11.9 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.79× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Commanders75.0%leaned — went for it · +39.8 vs their 35.2%, and they swing ±25.4 week to week (+1.57× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 51.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 34%
Tendencies room →Commanders15.0%right on their number · −0.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Packers15.2%right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
GB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.9 pts, 11.2 points above their season mean of 3.7 pts and 2.3 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
27/35, 274 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
10.9 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
25/37, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-10.5 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
Receiving · WAS
7/12 for 122 yds, 1 TD
33% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Davante Adams banked 8.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.2 | +3.5 | 92% | 79% | 33% | 60% | 7/12, 122 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 24.7 | +6.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/35, 274 yd, 3 TD · 2 car, 17 yd |
| Taylor HeinickeQB · Starter QB | 20.2 | −11.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/37, 268 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 10 car, 95 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Featured Receiver | 19.6 | +8.0 | 86% | 88% | 21% | 28% | 6/7, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 17.0 | +5.4 | 91% | 88% | 18% | 24% | 5/6, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 16.3 | +6.5 | 68% | 73% | 15% | 20% | 4/5, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Featured Receiver | 11.1 | −1.4 | 100% | 87% | 19% | 11% | 6/7, 51 yd |
| J.D. McKissicRB · Receiving Back | 9.6 | −1.0 | 64% | 72% | 17% | 0% | 4 car, 22 yd · 4/6, 34 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 8.9 | −1.7 | 73% | 75% | 15% | 0% | 6 car, 19 yd · 5/5, 20 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB · Committee Back | 7.6 | −3.9 | 42% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 51 yd · 2/2, 5 yd |
| Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.6 | 0.0 | 69% | 72% | 11% | 17% | 3/4, 36 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.1 | +0.9 | 38% | 30% | 9% | 6% | 3/3, 31 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | −1.9 | 63% | 70% | 12% | 10% | 3/4, 22 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +2.0 | 54% | 43% | 3% | 2% | 1 car, 27 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Dax MilneWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −3.9 | 40% | 45% | 11% | 15% | 2/4, 16 yd |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.5 | 21% | 13% | 3% | 14% | 1 car, 13 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kylin HillRB | 0.2 | −2.9 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 20% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tyler DavisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Antonio Gandy-GoldenWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| A.J. DillonRB | -0.2 | −4.9 | 23% | 20% | 6% | 2% | 3 car, 6 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 2:33 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at GB 40 · gained 40 · +3.78 EP · +11.6% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 83 yards from the WAS 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Packers6Commanders0Packers7Commanders6Packers7Commanders7Packers7Commanders7Packers13Commanders7Packers14Commanders7Packers20Commanders7Packers21Commanders7Packers24Commanders10Packers24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Packers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 25/37 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 4 | −10.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 10 | 95 | 9.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 | +0.4 |
| DeAndre Carter |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 12 | 122 | 1 | 33% | +3.2 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landon Collins | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/35 | 274 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +10.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_07_WAS_GB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 48; the game landed 34 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 27 |
| 27.0 |
| 0 |
| +2.3 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 | +1.3 |
| 19% |
| −1.4 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 11% | −1.2 |
| J.D. McKissic | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 | 17% | −1.0 |
| Dax Milne | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Johnson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bobby McCain | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montez Sweat | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| A.J. Dillon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −5.6 |
| Kylin Hill | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 6 | 7 | 76 | 1 | 21% | +7.0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 | 15% | +5.4 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 18% | +5.7 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 9% | +1.7 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 12% | +0.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 15% | +0.2 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6% | −1.9 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Kylin Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Vondre Campbell | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 3 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Darnell Savage | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dean Lowry | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandon Sullivan | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kingsley Keke | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Henry Black | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
