For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Commanders150 of 160 plays carry both curves
(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (21-E.Stokes).
Swing +9.2 for PackersExpected points +2.88 for PackersThe model had Commanders 17 points higher than the market did.play 57
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 3:03WAS +9% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (21-E.Stokes).
2nd · 0:19GB +9% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-Jon.Allen].
1st · 2:33GB +9% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:13WAS +8% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke sacked at WAS 24 for -5 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], RECOVERED by GB-94-D.Lowry at WAS 27.
2nd · 5:17GB +7% win prob(5:17) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles up the middle to GB 34 for 38 yards (31-A.Amos).
2nd · 5:24WAS +7% win prob(5:24) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-T.Settle), Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez, recovered by GB-81-J.Deguara at WAS 28.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Allen Lazard's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th11:26Mason Crosby·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap H.Bradley+37–24
4th2:30Chris Blewitt·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+310–24
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryPackers
Commanders5–4Packers
431Total yards304
6.3Yards per play5.7
51%Success rate43%
36%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays5
24First downs18
4Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Commanders: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.09Packers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Commanders: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.33Packers: +0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Commanders: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.64Packers: −0.64 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 68 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Packers’s 53 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 5, Packers 5.
NoteCommanders outgained Packers 431-304 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, +14.9 pts, is past their previous high of +7.4 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 6.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
high through week 7Against their seasonFourth Down
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 6.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.4 points.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 46.7% in week 6 against 67.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Packers15.2%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.9 pts, 11.2 points above their season mean of 3.7 pts and 2.3 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%72 snaps
72Charles LenoT · Every snap100%72 snaps
79Ereck FlowersG · Every snap100%72 snaps
83Ricky Seals-JonesTE · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%72 snaps
4Taylor HeinickeQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap99%71 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time92%66 snaps
13Adam HumphriesWR · Heavy rotation69%50 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Heavy rotation64%46 snaps
1DeAndre CarterWR · Heavy rotation54%39 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Rotational42%30 snaps
15Dax MilneWR · Rotational40%29 snaps
87John BatesTE · Situational15%11 snaps
2Dyami BrownWR · Situational14%10 snaps
18Antonio Gandy-GoldenWR · Situational8%6 snaps
32Jaret PattersonRB · Situational1%1 snap
69Tyler LarsenC · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
William JacksonCBShaka ToneyDEBrandon ScherffGSamuel CosmiTJace SternbergerTECurtis SamuelWRCam SimsWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Keith IsmaelCKyle AllenQB
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
70Royce NewmanT · Every snap100%56 snaps
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%56 snaps
77Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%56 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%56 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%56 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%56 snaps
13Allen LazardWR · Full-time91%51 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time86%48 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation73%41 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Heavy rotation68%38 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Heavy rotation63%35 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational38%21 snaps
28A.J. DillonRB · Situational23%13 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Situational21%12 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational20%11 snaps
32Kylin HillRB · Situational9%5 snaps
8Amari RodgersWR · Situational7%4 snaps
84Tyler DavisTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
Kevin KingCBJack HeflinDTVernon ScottFSPreston SmithOLBDennis KellyT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Heinicke pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 2:33 · Commanders · 1st & 10 at GB 40 · gained 40 · +3.78 EP · +11.6% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 83 yards from the WAS 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
734
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.2167%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.2578%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2357%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4120%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Commanders0Packers6
Commanders0Packers7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Commanders 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Commanders6Packers7
Commanders7Packers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Packers 40
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 27
The period ended3 plays, from the Commanders 37 to the Commanders 39
2nd quarter38 plays
No good8 plays, from the Commanders 39 to the Packers 24
No good10 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Commanders 14
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Packers 27
Commanders7Packers13
Commanders7Packers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Commanders 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Commanders 29
Commanders7Packers20
Commanders7Packers21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 20
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Packers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 1 to the Packers 6
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Packers 3
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Packers 14
4th quarter52 plays
Commanders7Packers24
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Commanders 11
Intercepted14 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Packers 12
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 37
Commanders10Packers24
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Packers 9
Punt7 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Packers 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
