2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · MetLife Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

New York JetsWinner

CIN -11.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓Bengals closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:36, CIN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:36CIN — NYJ CIN ball · 1st & 10CIN 92%

(4:36) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Lawson at CIN 15. 50-S.Lawson to CIN 14 for 1 yard (9-J.Burrow).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:36CIN +24% win prob(4:36) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Lawson at CIN 15. 50-S.Lawson to CIN 14 for 1 yard (9-J.Burrow).
Q4 · 3:50NYJ +18% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 81-T.Kroft for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 3:50CIN +17% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN 34. 30-J.Bates III to NYJ 1 for 65 yards (8-E.Moore).
Q4 · 2:24CIN +17% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 40 for -8 yards (98-S.Rankins). Penalty on CIN-63-T.Hill, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Jets
Offensive plays	53	77
Total yards	319	517 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.02	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	47%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	72%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	4/10	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	16	32 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Mike WhiteQB

37/45, 405 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

8.0 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

21/34, 259 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-0.3 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

15 att, 77 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

14 att, 33 yds, 1 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

4/6 for 97 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Michael CarterRB

9/14 for 95 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · -2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	12	79	6:22	Touchdown
2	CIN	CIN 25	5	9	1:25	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 19	7	36	3:36	Interception
4	CIN	NYJ 1	4	-14	1:33	Turnover on downs
5	NYJ	NYJ 15	2	6	0:36	Interception
6	CIN	NYJ 15	5	13	1:31	Touchdown
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	9	39	3:32	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	CIN 44	4	1	2:35	Punt
9	NYJ	NYJ 19	4	6	1:27	Punt
10	CIN	CIN 30	9	65	4:02	Touchdown
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	3	28	0:41	Fumble
12	CIN	CIN 47	5	46	0:49	Turnover on downs
13	NYJ	NYJ 33	10	67	1:36	Touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
15	CIN	CIN 21	7	34	2:44	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 12	13	67	6:59	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 25	6	75	2:06	Touchdown
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	69	5:43	Turnover on downs
19	CIN	CIN 25	14	75	4:59	Touchdown
20	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	90	2:53	Touchdown
21	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:04	Interception
22	NYJ	CIN 14	3	16	0:47	Touchdown
23	CIN	CIN 25	7	15	1:36	Punt
24	NYJ	NYJ 21	8	14	2:09	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 90 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	21/34	259	3	1	3	-0.3
Tyler Boyd	1/1	46	0	0	0	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	14	33	2.4	1	-2.6
Ja'Marr Chase	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Joe Burrow	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	4	6	97	0	18%	5.7
Tyler Boyd	5	8	69	1	24%	3.9
Joe Mixon	4	5	58	1	15%	3.5
C.J. Uzomah	4	4	33	0	12%	2.7
Ja'Marr Chase	3	9	32	1	26%	-6.2
Samaje Perine	2	2	16	0	6%	1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	9	2	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	5	4	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	7	0	0.0	0	1
Jessie Bates	4	2	0.0	1	1
Trey Hendrickson	3	3	1.0	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	3	2	1.0	0	0
Sam Hubbard	2	3	0.0	0	2
Germaine Pratt	4	1	0.0	1	1
Eli Apple	3	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	2	1	0.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mike White	37/45	405	3	2	2	8.0
Josh Johnson	2/4	17	0	0	0	-1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Michael Carter	15	77	5.1	1	3.2
Ty Johnson	4	15	3.8	0	-0.6
Elijah Moore	1	4	4.0	0	-0.3
La'Mical Perine	1	3	3.0	0	-0.2
Mike White	5	-1	-0.2	0	-0.7
Jeff Smith	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Carter	9	14	95	0	29%	-2.4
Jamison Crowder	8	9	84	0	18%	-9.5
Ty Johnson	5	6	71	1	12%	7.9
Elijah Moore	6	6	67	0	12%	3.3
Denzel Mims	2	3	30	0	6%	-0.5
Keelan Cole	3	5	25	0	10%	-0.1
Tyler Kroft	2	2	20	1	4%	2.9
Braxton Berrios	2	2	13	1	4%	2.8
Jeff Smith	1	1	10	0	2%	0.8
Ryan Griffin	1	1	7	0	2%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
C.J. Mosley	6	2	0.0	0
Bryce Hall	2	2	0.0	1
Marcus Maye	4	0	0.0	0
Sheldon Rankins	2	2	1.0	0
Javelin Guidry	1	2	0.0	0
Jabari Zuniga	1	2	1.0	0
Ashtyn Davis	2	1	0.0	0
Michael Carter	1	2	0.0	1
Quinnen Williams	2	0	1.0	1
Brandin Echols	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -11.5
Closing total: 43.5
CIN moneyline: -510
NYJ moneyline: +411

Bengals closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 65 — over by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 63°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: CIN 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Robert Saleh