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New York Jets 34, Bengals 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 4:36, 1st and 10, on Shaq Lawson — 24.5 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:36 · 1st and 10
Shaq Lawson
Jets
(4:36) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Lawson at CIN 15. 50-S.Lawson to CIN 14 for 1 yard (9-J.Burrow).
O 43.5 ✓
Bengals closed -11.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 34–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 4:36, Jets +24.5% win probability on one snap.
24.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.BatesBengalsQ1 3:50(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN 34. 30-J.Bates III to NYJ 1 for 65 yards (8-E.Moore).
17.4pts
Tyler KroftJetsQ4 3:50(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 81-T.Kroft for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Jets at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Jets won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Bengals at 4 of 10 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jets won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jets won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.11 expected points per carry.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 24.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 48 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Bengals176 of 187 plays carry both curves
(4:36) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Lawson at CIN 15. 50-S.Lawson to CIN 14 for 1 yard (9-J.Burrow).
Swing +24.5 for JetsExpected points +5.75 for JetsThe model had Jets 8 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:36CIN +24% win prob(4:36) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Lawson at CIN 15. 50-S.Lawson to CIN 14 for 1 yard (9-J.Burrow).
4th · 3:50NYJ +18% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 81-T.Kroft for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:50CIN +17% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short right intended for 82-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Bates III at CIN 34. 30-J.Bates III to NYJ 1 for 65 yards (8-E.Moore).
4th · 2:24CIN +17% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 40 for -8 yards (98-S.Rankins). Penalty on CIN-63-T.Hill, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
4th · 3:17NYJ +9% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd ran ob at CIN 49 for 19 yards [91-J.Franklin-Myers].
1st · 8:44CIN +9% win prob(8:44) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Kroft's 13-yard touchdown catch with 3:50 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd3:27Ja'Marr Chase·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+714–7
2nd1:54Evan McPherson·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+317–7
2nd0:19Braxton Berrios·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Mike Whitefrom Mike White+717–14
3rd5:20Matt Ammendola·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+317–17
3rd3:17Joe Mixon·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+724–17
4th12:31Matt Ammendola·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+324–20
4th7:36Tyler Boyd·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+731–20
4th4:43Ty Johnson·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Mike Whitefrom Mike White · two-point no good+631–26
4th3:50Tyler Kroft·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Mike Whitefrom Mike White · two-point goodLead never changed again+831–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryJets
Bengals1–6Jets
319Total yards517
6.0Yards per play6.7
47%Success rate57%
40%Third-down rate60%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays5
16First downs32
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers3
The read
Jets ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bengals: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.05Jets: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Bengals: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.06Jets: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Bengals: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.02Jets: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 53 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Jets’s 77 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 6, Jets 6.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 8Against their seasonOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +11.8 pts, is past their previous high of +8.2 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
high through week 8Against their seasonOver Expected
NYJ's pass rate over expected, +9.7 pts, is past their previous high of +6.3 pts in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 7 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 13.8%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Jets13.2%
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.8 pts, 12.2 points above their season mean of -0.4 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
—Jonah WilliamsT · Every snap100%55 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Every snap100%55 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%55 snaps
66Trey HopkinsC · Every snap100%55 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap100%55 snaps
1Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Full-time95%52 snaps
79Jackson CarmanG · Full-time93%51 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Full-time85%47 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time80%44 snaps
28Joe MixonRB · Heavy rotation76%42 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation76%42 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational36%20 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Rotational25%14 snaps
17Stanley MorganWR · Situational13%7 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational7%4 snaps
63Trey HillC · Situational7%4 snaps
84Mitchell WilcoxTE · Situational4%2 snaps
75Isaiah PrinceT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Nick McCloudCBDarius HodgeDEWyatt RayDETyler ShelvinNTChris EvansRBAuden TateWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−33% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:36) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 50-S.Lawson at CIN 15. 50-S.Lawson to CIN 14 for 1 yard (9-J.Burrow).
Q4 4:36 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at CIN 25 · gained nothing · -5.75 EP · −33.4% win probability
174 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 82 yards from the NYJ 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
46%
Yards
831
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0676%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0771%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0760%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR13+0.6792%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2344%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Bengals0Jets6
Bengals0Jets7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bengals 8
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Bengals 45
Turnover on downs4 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 21
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 1
2nd quarter55 plays
Bengals6Jets7
Bengals7Jets7
Touchdown2 plays
No good9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bengals 35
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 44 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 25
Bengals13Jets7
Bengals14Jets7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Jets 2
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 27
Bengals17Jets7
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Jets 3
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Bengals17Jets13
Bengals17Jets14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Bengals 8
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 21 to midfield
Bengals17Jets17
Field goal14 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Bengals 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bengals23Jets17
Bengals24Jets17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jets 8
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bengals 46
4th quarter58 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Bengals24Jets20
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Bengals 2
Bengals30Jets20
Bengals31Jets20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jets 10
Bengals31Jets26
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bengals 14
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Bengals31Jets32
Bengals31Jets34
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 13
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 49
The period ended15 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Jets 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
