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2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas20
BY 4final margin
VikingsMinnesota16
Dallas Cowboys 20 at Minnesota Vikings 16. Final.
Vikings -4.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2021 Week 8
Dallas Cowboys 20, Vikings 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:18, 3rd and 8, on Cedrick Wilson — 20.0 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:18 · 3rd and 8
Cedrick Wilson
Cowboys
(14:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 1-C.Wilson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Vikings closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Dallas Cowboys 20–16. Biggest swing: Q3 14:18, Cowboys +20.0% win probability on one snap.
20.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cooper RushVikingsQ4 10:03(10:03) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 47 for -8 yards (23-X.Woods). FUMBLES (23-X.Woods) [23-X.Woods], RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at MIN 48.
18.3pts
Ezekiel ElliottCowboysQ4 1:04(1:04) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to MIN 5 for 15 yards (27-C.Dantzler) [98-D.Wonnum].
19.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Vikings at 1 of 13 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.23 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Cowboys174 of 184 plays carry both curves
(14:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 1-C.Wilson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.0 for VikingsExpected points −7.28 for VikingsThe model had Cowboys 5 points higher than the market did.play 89
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:18MIN +20% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 1-C.Wilson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:04MIN +20% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to MIN 5 for 15 yards (27-C.Dantzler) [98-D.Wonnum].
4th · 10:03DAL +18% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 47 for -8 yards (23-X.Woods). FUMBLES (23-X.Woods) [23-X.Woods], RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at MIN 48.
4th · 0:55MIN +15% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:46MIN +13% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper to MIN 42 for 33 yards (22-H.Smith).
4th · 2:12MIN +12% win prob(2:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 19-A.Cooper to MIN 24 for 18 yards (22-H.Smith). FUMBLES (22-H.Smith), ball out of bounds at MIN 24.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amari Cooper's 5-yard touchdown catch with 0:55 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd6:13Greg Zuerlein·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+33–7
2nd1:49Greg Joseph·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+33–10
3rd14:18Cedrick Wilson·73-yd TD catch73-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper Rush+710–10
3rd6:36Greg Joseph·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+310–13
3rd0:08Greg Zuerlein·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.McQuaide+313–13
4th2:54Greg Joseph·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap A.DePaola+313–16
4th0:55Amari Cooper·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Cooper Rushfrom Cooper RushLead never changed again+720–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryVikings
Cowboys5–3Vikings
419Total yards279
6.2Yards per play4.7
40%Success rate30%
50%Third-down rate8%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays6
21First downs10
3Sacks taken1
3Turnovers0
The read
Cowboys ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Vikings, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Cowboys: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.23Vikings: −0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Cowboys: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.28Vikings: −0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Cowboys: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.14Vikings: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 68 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Vikings’s 60 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Vikings 2.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.20× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Vikings13.3%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.1%, 6.8 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.2 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Rush pass+22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 1-C.Wilson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:18 · Cowboys · 3rd & 8 at DAL 27 · gained 73 · +7.28 EP · +22.0% win probability
172 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 75 yards from the MIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
35%
Yards
697
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1176%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2855%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.2475%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.1960%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2940%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR10-0.4690%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.5229%
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Cowboys0Vikings6
Cowboys0Vikings7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 19
No good14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Vikings 19
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Cowboys 49
The period ended8 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Cowboys 46
2nd quarter46 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Cowboys 48 to the Vikings 47
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 40 to midfield
Cowboys3Vikings7
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Vikings 20
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Cowboys3Vikings10
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 24
The period ended1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 35
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 34
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Cowboys9Vikings10
Cowboys10Vikings10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 27
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cowboys 46
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 18
Cowboys10Vikings13
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Cowboys 22
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 38
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 34
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
Cowboys13Vikings13
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Vikings 21
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Vikings 45
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Cowboys 33
Cowboys13Vikings16
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Cowboys 4
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Cowboys19Vikings16
Cowboys20Vikings16
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Vikings 5
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
