2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -4.5 upsetU 49.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 20–16. Biggest swing: Q3 14:18, MIN +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:18DAL — MIN DAL ball · 3rd & 8MIN 83%

(14:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 1-C.Wilson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:18MIN +20% win prob(14:18) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 1-C.Wilson for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:04MIN +20% win prob(1:04) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 21-E.Elliott to MIN 5 for 15 yards (27-C.Dantzler) [98-D.Wonnum].
Q4 · 10:03DAL +18% win prob(10:03) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush sacked at DAL 47 for -8 yards (23-X.Woods). FUMBLES (23-X.Woods) [23-X.Woods], RECOVERED by MIN-55-A.Barr at MIN 48.
Q4 · 0:55MIN +15% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Vikings
Offensive plays	68	60
Total yards	419 (edge)	279
Yards per play	6.2 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.23
Success rate	40% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	66%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	1/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Cooper RushQB

24/40, 325 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.2 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

23/35, 184 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-9.9 expected points added · -2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

18 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

16 att, 50 yds, 0 TD

-4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

8/13 for 122 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

6/8 for 112 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	9	61	3:11	Touchdown
2	DAL	DAL 25	12	50	6:30	Turnover on downs
3	MIN	MIN 33	5	18	1:29	Punt
4	DAL	DAL 5	9	48	4:33	Interception
5	MIN	MIN 40	4	5	1:43	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 20	12	60	6:25	Turnover on downs
7	MIN	MIN 25	12	44	4:25	Turnover on downs
8	DAL	DAL 25	7	10	1:07	Punt
9	MIN	MIN 15	4	19	0:37	End of half
10	DAL	DAL 25	5	75	0:53	Touchdown
11	MIN	MIN 25	6	27	2:57	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 16	4	-8	1:38	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 45	7	33	3:01	Turnover on downs
14	DAL	DAL 20	7	18	2:41	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 26	4	4	1:39	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 28	5	37	2:07	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	MIN 25	5	6	1:25	Punt
18	DAL	DAL 9	7	53	3:43	Fumble
19	MIN	MIN 48	4	4	0:53	Punt
20	DAL	DAL 32	4	1	0:55	Punt
21	MIN	MIN 26	10	36	5:17	Turnover on downs
22	DAL	DAL 25	10	75	2:00	Touchdown
23	MIN	MIN 25	6	22	0:51	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 75 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cooper Rush	24/40	325	2	1	3	2.2
Cedrick Wilson	1/1	35	0	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	16	50	3.1	-4.1
Tony Pollard	7	26	3.7	1.5
Cooper Rush	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	8	13	122	1	32%	6.0
CeeDee Lamb	6	8	112	0	20%	7.9
Cedrick Wilson	3	3	84	1	7%	7.4
Ezekiel Elliott	4	6	23	0	15%	1.6
Dalton Schultz	2	7	11	0	17%	-3.2
Noah Brown	1	2	7	0	5%	-0.3
Tony Pollard	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.6
Blake Jarwin	0	1	0	0	2%	-5.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Micah Parsons	9	1	0
Anthony Brown	4	1	2
Jourdan Lewis	5	0	0
Jayron Kearse	4	1	0
Donovan Wilson	2	2	0
Justin Hamilton	2	1	0
Damontae Kazee	2	0	0
Malik Hooker	1	1	0
Dorance Armstrong	2	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	1	1	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	23/35	184	1	0	1	-9.9
Justin Jefferson	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	18	78	4.3	-0.3
Kirk Cousins	3	18	6.0	-0.1
Alexander Mattison	2	5	2.5	-1.2
C.J. Ham	1	0	0.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	6	9	78	1	27%	3.9
Tyler Conklin	5	7	57	0	21%	-0.5
Justin Jefferson	2	4	21	0	12%	-1.1
K.J. Osborn	2	3	10	0	9%	-2.7
Luke Stocker	1	1	7	0	3%	0.2
Christopher Herndon	1	1	7	0	3%	1.0
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	1	1	6	0	3%	0.1
C.J. Ham	3	3	3	0	9%	-2.0
Dalvin Cook	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.4
Alexander Mattison	2	2	-5	0	6%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Xavier Woods	4	4	1.0	1	1
Cameron Dantzler	7	0	0.0	0	2
Harrison Smith	5	2	0.0	0	1
Bashaud Breeland	2	3	0.0	0	0
Eric Kendricks	4	1	1.0	0	1
Danielle Hunter	3	2	0.0	0	0
Anthony Barr	1	3	0.0	0	1
Nick Vigil	1	3	0.0	0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	2	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -4.5
Closing total: 49.5
DAL moneyline: +193
MIN moneyline: -219

Vikings closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 36 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: DAL 14 days · MIN 14 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Mike Zimmer