2021 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 28, 2021 · State Farm Stadium

Green Bay PackersWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -6.5 upsetU 51 ✓Cardinals closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Green Bay Packers 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, GB +54% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:15GB — ARI ARI ball · 2nd & 5ARI 61%

(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:15GB +54% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
Q2 · 6:52ARI +19% win prob(6:52) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to ARI 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-T.Summers. Green Bay challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to ARI 13, Center-43-H.Bradley. 4-R.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-44-T.Summers at ARI 3.
Q4 · 1:16ARI +19% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-C.Edmonds to GB 18 for 22 yards (41-H.Black). GB-41-H.Black was injured during the play.
Q4 · 2:46ARI +16% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 18-A.Green to ARI 24 for 23 yards (41-H.Black).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Cardinals
Offensive plays	71	55
Total yards	336 (edge)	334
Yards per play	4.7	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	0.05
Success rate	46%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	0.08
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

22/33, 274 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

0.6 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

22/37, 184 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

1.4 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

16 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

15 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Aaron JonesRB

7/11 for 51 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -3.2 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

A.J. GreenWR

5/8 for 50 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	6	14	2:02	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 13	4	6	1:49	Punt
3	GB	GB 22	4	7	1:09	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 37	8	88	3:43	Touchdown
5	GB	GB 25	16	70	8:23	Touchdown
6	ARI	ARI 25	5	-5	1:15	Punt
7	GB	GB 15	8	34	4:56	Punt
8	GB	ARI 3	4	0	0:19	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 15	6	9	1:54	Punt
10	GB	GB 16	10	32	4:30	Turnover on downs
11	ARI	ARI 15	4	-6	1:07	Interception
12	GB	ARI 14	6	14	2:16	Touchdown
13	ARI	ARI 19	14	76	5:15	Touchdown
14	GB	GB 9	14	91	6:26	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 25	13	64	4:11	Touchdown
16	GB	GB 25	14	74	7:22	Turnover on downs
17	ARI	ARI 1	12	102	3:11	Interception
18	GB	GB 20	1	0	0:12	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 102 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	22/37	184	2	0	1	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
A.J. Dillon	16	78	4.9	0	2.7
Aaron Jones	15	59	3.9	1	0.4
Amari Rodgers	1	11	11.0	0	1.0
Aaron Rodgers	2	3	1.5	0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Aaron Jones	7	11	51	0	31%	-3.2
Robert Tonyan	3	4	49	0	11%	3.7
Juwann Winfree	4	6	30	0	17%	0.1
Josiah Deguara	2	2	20	0	6%	1.7
Randall Cobb	3	5	15	2	14%	-2.0
Equanimeous St. Brown	2	3	12	0	9%	3.9
Amari Rodgers	1	3	7	0	9%	-1.1
Marcedes Lewis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rasul Douglas	9	0	0.0	1	2
Eric Stokes	5	1	0.0	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	3	3	1.0	0	0
Krys Barnes	2	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	2	2	0.0	0	0
Oren Burks	3	0	0.0	0	0
Henry Black	2	1	0.0	1	1
Dean Lowry	3	0	1.0	0	0
Darnell Savage	1	1	0.0	0	0
A.J. Dillon	1	0	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	22/33	274	0	2	2	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chase Edmonds	7	30	4.3	1	1.1
James Conner	5	22	4.4	2	1.8
Kyler Murray	6	21	3.5	0	0.7
Rondale Moore	2	1	0.5	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	2	2	66	6%	4.7
A.J. Green	5	8	50	26%	-2.5
Christian Kirk	4	6	46	19%	0.5
Zach Ertz	4	4	42	13%	4.4
Chase Edmonds	3	4	39	13%	0.4
Rondale Moore	3	4	24	13%	-2.3
Antoine Wesley	1	3	7	10%	1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	7	5	0.0	0
Jalen Thompson	3	6	0.0	1
Budda Baker	5	1	0.0	0
Byron Murphy	4	2	0.0	1
Zach Allen	2	4	1.0	0
Michael Dogbe	1	5	0.0	0
Isaiah Simmons	3	3	0.0	1
Markus Golden	1	3	0.0	0
Marco Wilson	3	0	0.0	0
Jordan Phillips	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -6.5
Closing total: 51
GB moneyline: +242
ARI moneyline: -279

Cardinals closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 45 — under by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: open · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: GB 4 days · ARI 4 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Kliff Kingsbury