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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2021 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 28, 2021 · State Farm Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2021 Week 8
It turned at Q4 0:15, 2nd and 5, on Rasul Douglas — 54.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Packers +54.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 2nd and 5
Rasul Douglas
Packers
(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
54.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Packers at 5 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Mason Crosby's 21-yard field goal with 6:28 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Mason Crosby21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap H.BradleyLead never changed again+310–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryCardinals
Packers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 71 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Cardinals 4.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate, 8.3%, is past their previous low of 11.9% in week 4 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.5% in week 7 against 49.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +14.9 pts in week 7 against +1.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points. · −0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Packers1.3 ptsright on their number · −2.4 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 71 snaps
Cardinals0.2 ptsright on their number · +0.0 vs their 0.2 pts, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.00× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 85%
Tendencies room →Packers49.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.6 vs their 55.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 53 early downs
Cardinals60.5%right on their number · +4.1 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21% to 124%
Fourth Down room →Packers60.0%right on their number · +8.8 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±28.4 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Cardinals50.0%right on their number · +2.4 vs their 47.6%, and they swing ±25.5 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 29%
Tendencies room →Packers8.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −4.9 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cardinals10.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.1 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
ARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 10.3%, 6.1 points below their season mean of 16.4% and 1.2 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
22/33, 274 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
0.6 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected
Passing · GB
22/37, 184 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
1.4 expected points added · -8.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
James Conner banked 9.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 24.0 | −8.7 | 66% | 69% | 31% | 20% | 15 car, 59 yd, 1 TD · 7/11, 51 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.5 | −2.4 | 68% | 72% | 14% | 7% | 3/5, 15 yd, 2 TD |
| Chase EdmondsRB · Committee Back | 15.9 | +4.5 | 59% | 58% | 13% | 2% | 7 car, 30 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 39 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 15.7 | −16.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/37, 184 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 3 yd |
| James ConnerRB | 14.2 | +9.7 | 37% | 33% | 0% | — | 5 car, 22 yd, 2 TD |
| A.J. GreenWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.0 | −5.5 | 95% | 92% | 26% | 29% | 5/8, 50 yd |
| Kyler MurrayQB · Starter QB | 9.1 | −10.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/33, 274 yd, 2 INT · 6 car, 21 yd |
| Christian KirkWR · Featured Receiver | 8.6 | −2.1 | 78% | 81% | 19% | 27% | 4/6, 46 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +5.0 | 25% | 22% | 6% | 14% | 2/2, 66 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.2 | +1.9 | 73% | 64% | 13% | 6% | 4/4, 42 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.9 | −1.7 | 48% | 62% | 11% | 25% | 3/4, 49 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 7.8 | −0.1 | 40% | 31% | 0% | — | 16 car, 78 yd |
| Juwann WinfreeWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | −4.5 | 74% | 79% | 17% | 15% | 4/6, 30 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −2.4 | 61% | 69% | 13% | 0% | 2 car, 1 yd · 3/4, 24 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.8 | 22% | 15% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −4.2 | 92% | 90% | 9% | 3% | 2/3, 12 yd |
| Amari RodgersWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −3.2 | 22% | 13% | 9% | 2% | 1 car, 11 yd · 1/3, 7 yd |
| Antoine WesleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −3.6 | 53% | 53% | 10% | 17% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Jonathan WardRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Darrell DanielsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Demetrius HarrisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 17% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kylin HillRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.9 | 42% | 38% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Malik TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
Q4 0:15 · Cardinals · 2nd & goal at GB 5 · gained nothing · -4.11 EP · −44.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 94 yards from the ARI 1 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers0
Cardinals6Packers0Cardinals7Packers6Cardinals7Packers7Cardinals7Packers10Cardinals7Packers16Cardinals7Packers17Cardinals7Packers17Cardinals13Packers17Cardinals14Packers23Cardinals14Packers24Cardinals14Packers24Cardinals20Packers24Cardinals21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Cardinals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/37 | 184 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 16 | 78 | 4.9 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Aaron Jones | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 1 | +0.4 |
| Amari Rodgers |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 11 | 51 | 0 | 31% | −3.2 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasul Douglas | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Eric Stokes | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Vondre Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/33 | 274 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2021_08_GB_ARI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cardinals closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 45 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 11 |
| 11.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +0.5 |
| +3.7 |
| Juwann Winfree | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 17% | +0.1 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +1.7 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 14% | −2.0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9% | +3.9 |
| Amari Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −1.1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Krys Barnes | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Amos | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oren Burks | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Black | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dean Lowry | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Savage | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Dillon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 1 | +1.1 |
| James Conner | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 2 | +1.8 |
| Kyler Murray | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Rondale Moore | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 6% | +4.7 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 26% | −2.5 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 19% | +0.5 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 13% | +4.4 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 13% | +0.4 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 13% | −2.3 |
| Antoine Wesley | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10% | +1.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Thompson | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Budda Baker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Dogbe | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Markus Golden | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Phillips | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
