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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2021 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 28, 2021 · State Farm Stadium
Final
PackersGreen Bay24
BY 3final margin
CardinalsArizona21
Green Bay Packers 24 at Arizona Cardinals 21. Final.
Cardinals -6.5 upset
The verdict · 2021 Week 8
Green Bay Packers 24, Cardinals 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:15, 2nd and 5, on Rasul Douglas — 54.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 2nd and 5
Rasul Douglas
Packers
(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
U 51 ✓
Cardinals closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Packers +54.4% win probability on one snap.
54.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPackersQ2 6:52(6:52) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to ARI 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-T.Summers. Green Bay challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to ARI 13, Center-43-H.Bradley. 4-R.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-44-T.Summers at ARI 3.
19.2pts
Chase EdmondsCardinalsQ4 1:16(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-C.Edmonds to GB 18 for 22 yards (41-H.Black). GB-41-H.Black was injured during the play.
18.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Packers at 5 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Packers159 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
Swing −54.4 for CardinalsExpected points −4.11 for CardinalsThe model had Packers 11 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:15GB +54% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
2nd · 6:52ARI +19% win prob(6:52) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to ARI 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-T.Summers. Green Bay challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to ARI 13, Center-43-H.Bradley. 4-R.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-44-T.Summers at ARI 3.
4th · 1:16ARI +19% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 2-C.Edmonds to GB 18 for 22 yards (41-H.Black). GB-41-H.Black was injured during the play.
4th · 2:46ARI +16% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 18-A.Green to ARI 24 for 23 yards (41-H.Black).
4th · 3:26GB +15% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 18-R.Cobb (42-D.Kennard).
4th · 2:21ARI +15% win prob(2:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk to GB 47 for 29 yards (29-R.Douglas).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 21-yard field goal with 6:28 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Packers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Packers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.05Cardinals: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Packers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.03Cardinals: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Packers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.08Cardinals: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 71 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Cardinals 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.5% in week 7 against 49.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +14.9 pts in week 7 against +1.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −4.9 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±4.6 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Cardinals10.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.1 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 10.3%, 6.1 points below their season mean of 16.4% and 1.2 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Jon RunyanG · Every snap100%73 snaps
70Royce NewmanT · Every snap100%73 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%73 snaps
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%73 snaps
19Equanimeous St. BrownWR · Full-time92%67 snaps
88Juwann WinfreeWR · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation66%48 snaps
85Robert TonyanTE · Rotational48%35 snaps
89Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational42%31 snaps
28A.J. DillonRB · Rotational40%29 snaps
81Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational22%16 snaps
8Amari RodgersWR · Situational22%16 snaps
49Dominique DafneyTE · Situational19%14 snaps
86Malik TaylorWR · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Kevin KingCBJack HeflinDTVernon ScottFSJaylon SmithMLBLadarius HamiltonOLBDennis KellyT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jordan LoveQB
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
74D.J. HumphriesT · Every snap100%59 snaps
79Josh JonesG · Every snap100%59 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%59 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%59 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
64Sean HarlowG · Every snap100%59 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Full-time95%56 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation78%46 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
4Rondale MooreWR · Heavy rotation61%36 snaps
2Chase EdmondsRB · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
85Antoine WesleyWR · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
6James ConnerRB · Rotational37%22 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational25%15 snaps
84Demetrius HarrisTE · Situational17%10 snaps
81Darrell DanielsTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Max GarciaCJ.J. WattDERashard LawrenceNTChris StrevelerQBEno BenjaminRBAndy IsabellaWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:15) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 29-R.Douglas at GB -5. Touchback. ARI-1-K.Murray was injured during the play.
Q4 0:15 · Cardinals · 2nd & goal at GB 5 · gained nothing · -4.11 EP · −44.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 94 yards from the ARI 1 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
46%
Yards
669
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2255%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0367%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.0858%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR15+0.0673%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3020%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 29
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Cardinals 34
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 29
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Packers0Cardinals6
Packers0Cardinals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Packers 11
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Cardinals 17
2nd quarter43 plays
Packers6Cardinals7
Packers7Cardinals7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Cardinals 2
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Cardinals 49
Packers10Cardinals7
Field goal4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Cardinals 29
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Packers 16 to midfield
3rd quarter39 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 15 to the Cardinals 19
Packers16Cardinals7
Packers17Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 2
Packers17Cardinals13
Packers17Cardinals14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Packers 2
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 9 to the Cardinals 11
4th quarter51 plays
Packers23Cardinals14
Packers24Cardinals14
Touchdown2 plays
Packers24Cardinals20
Packers24Cardinals21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Packers 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Turnover on downs19 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Cardinals 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Packers 5
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
