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Buffalo Bills 26, Dolphins 11 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:24, 3rd and 5 — 10.9 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:24 · 3rd and 5
Unnamed on the sheet
Bills
(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BUF 16, touched at BUF 15, RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at BUF 13. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 29 for 16 yards (1-T.Tagovailoa; 73-A.Jackson).
Bills closed -15 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Buffalo Bills 26–11. Biggest swing: Q2 0:24, Bills +10.9% win probability on one snap.
10.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jason SandersBillsQ1 8:10(8:10) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (57-A.Epenesa), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
8.8pts
Cole BeasleyBillsQ3 9:48(9:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-C.Beasley to BUF 36 for 15 yards (8-J.Holland; 40-N.Needham).
8.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 14 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.12 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Dolphins172 of 185 plays carry both curves
(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BUF 16, touched at BUF 15, RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at BUF 13. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 29 for 16 yards (1-T.Tagovailoa; 73-A.Jackson).
Swing +10.9 for BillsExpected points +3.55 for BillsThe model had Dolphins 29 points higher than the market did.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:24MIA +11% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BUF 16, touched at BUF 15, RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at BUF 13. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 29 for 16 yards (1-T.Tagovailoa; 73-A.Jackson).
3rd · 9:48BUF +9% win prob(9:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-C.Beasley to BUF 36 for 15 yards (8-J.Holland; 40-N.Needham).
1st · 8:10MIA +9% win prob(8:10) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (57-A.Epenesa), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
1st · 6:27BUF +9% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to MIA 40 for 34 yards (40-N.Needham).
3rd · 3:56BUF +7% win prob(3:56) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-15-J.Phillips, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 10:13BUF +7% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 11-D.Parker to BUF 23 for 8 yards (21-J.Poyer).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gabe Davis's 8-yard touchdown catch with 3:56 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:52Tyler Bass·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.Ferguson+30–3
2nd8:14Jason Sanders·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap B.Ferguson+33–3
4th3:33Tyler Bass·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap R.Ferguson+311–20
4th1:14Josh Allen·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+611–26
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins0–9Bills
264Total yards352
4.1Yards per play5.3
40%Success rate42%
29%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays5
15First downs21
2Sacks taken0
2Turnovers0
The read
Bills ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Dolphins: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.04Bills: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Dolphins: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Dolphins: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.30Bills: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 65 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Bills’s 66 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Bills 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, +12.8 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +10.3 pts in week 6.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 20 team-games charted in week 8 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 34.8 points.
MIA's sack or hit rate, 10.9%, is past their previous low of 13.0% in week 5 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bills15.9%
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2021 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.8 pts, 8.4 points above their season mean of 4.4 pts and 1.2 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa Aborted−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BUF 16, touched at BUF 15, RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at BUF 13. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 29 for 16 yards (1-T.Tagovailoa; 73-A.Jackson).
Q2 0:24 · Dolphins · 3rd & 5 at BUF 12 · gained nothing · -3.55 EP · −16.1% win probability
170 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 85 yards from the BUF 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
37%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR51-0.2667%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.0277%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12+0.4358%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1117%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR6+0.7283%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 27
No good12 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Bills 18
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Dolphins0Bills3
Field goal8 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Dolphins 39
The period ended12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 44
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 47
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Dolphins3Bills3
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Bills 31
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 48
Punt11 plays, from the Dolphins 7 to the Dolphins 46
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Dolphins 44
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Bills 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 30
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Dolphins3Bills9
Dolphins3Bills10
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Dolphins 8
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 25
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Dolphins 41
4th quarter58 plays
Dolphins3Bills16
Dolphins3Bills17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 19
Dolphins9Bills17
Dolphins11Bills17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bills 1
Dolphins11Bills20
Field goal23 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Dolphins 12
Intercepted6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 35
Dolphins11Bills26
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 7
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Dolphinscategory by categoryBills
Dolphins0
Bills3
