2021 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 31, 2021 · New Era Field

Miami Dolphins

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -15 pushU 48.5 ✓Bills closed -15 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Buffalo Bills 26–11. Biggest swing: Q2 0:24, MIA +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:24MIA — BUF MIA ball · 3rd & 5BUF 67%

(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BUF 16, touched at BUF 15, RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at BUF 13. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 29 for 16 yards (1-T.Tagovailoa; 73-A.Jackson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:24MIA +11% win prob(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa Aborted. 61-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BUF 16, touched at BUF 15, RECOVERED by BUF-23-M.Hyde at BUF 13. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 29 for 16 yards (1-T.Tagovailoa; 73-A.Jackson).
Q3 · 9:48BUF +9% win prob(9:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-C.Beasley to BUF 36 for 15 yards (8-J.Holland; 40-N.Needham).
Q1 · 8:10MIA +9% win prob(8:10) 7-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (57-A.Epenesa), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q1 · 6:27BUF +9% win prob(6:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to MIA 40 for 34 yards (40-N.Needham).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Bills
Offensive plays	65	66
Total yards	264	352 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.12	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	40%	42% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.20 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	4/14	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

29/42, 249 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.6 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/39, 205 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.6 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

8 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

12 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Cole BeasleyWR

10/13 for 110 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 8.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

8/11 for 85 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 22	5	5	1:35	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 26	12	56	5:19	Turnover on downs
3	BUF	BUF 26	7	40	4:18	Turnover on downs
4	MIA	MIA 25	10	26	4:05	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 27	5	19	2:42	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 35	7	32	3:51	Turnover on downs
7	BUF	BUF 25	6	23	1:32	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 7	9	39	4:36	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 20	7	36	1:16	Turnover on downs
10	MIA	BUF 41	5	14	0:35	Fumble
11	BUF	BUF 29	1	0	0:11	End of half
12	MIA	MIA 21	5	9	2:10	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 21	4	-2	0:54	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 46	4	-1	1:01	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 20	14	82	7:06	Touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 17	5	8	1:37	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 31	10	69	3:49	Touchdown
18	MIA	MIA 25	13	72	3:44	Touchdown
19	BUF	BUF 20	15	69	6:10	Turnover on downs
20	MIA	MIA 25	5	4	1:08	Interception
21	BUF	MIA 11	4	11	1:14	Touchdown
22	MIA	MIA 25	3	5	1:07	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 82 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	21/39	205	0	1	2	-1.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	12	36	3.0	0	-2.3
Salvon Ahmed	7	22	3.1	0	-1.2
Tua Tagovailoa	4	10	2.5	1	-2.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	8	11	85	31%	4.3
Mike Gesicki	3	4	48	11%	6.1
Jaylen Waddle	4	11	29	31%	-5.9
Myles Gaskin	3	4	19	11%	-0.4
Patrick Laird	1	1	10	3%	0.3
Adam Shaheen	1	1	8	3%	0.6
Salvon Ahmed	1	2	6	6%	-0.3
Isaiah Ford	0	1	0	3%	-0.6
Mack Hollins	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Nik Needham	6	2	0
Brandon Jones	4	1	0
Jevon Holland	4	1	0
Byron Jones	3	2	1
Christian Wilkins	3	1	1
Jaelan Phillips	2	2	0
Elandon Roberts	2	2	0
Adam Butler	1	2	0
Duke Riley	1	2	0
Justin Coleman	2	1	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	29/42	249	2	0	0	5.6
Cole Beasley	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	8	55	6.9	1	4.1
Devin Singletary	7	28	4.0	0	-1.3
Zack Moss	8	19	2.4	0	-5.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	10	13	110	0	32%	8.6
Stefon Diggs	5	7	40	1	17%	0.1
Zack Moss	6	7	39	0	17%	0.9
Tommy Sweeney	3	4	30	0	10%	0.8
Gabe Davis	4	5	29	1	12%	1.5
Devin Singletary	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.5
Emmanuel Sanders	0	4	0	0	10%	-2.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Poyer	9	0	0.0	1	1
Tremaine Edmunds	3	3	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	5	0	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	5	0	0.0	0	1
Taron Johnson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	3	1	0.0	0	0
A.J. Epenesa	1	2	0.0	0	0
Mario Addison	2	1	1.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	0	0.0	0	2
Siran Neal	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -15
Closing total: 48.5
MIA moneyline: +709
BUF moneyline: -983

Bills closed -15 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 37 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: MIA 7 days · BUF 13 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.